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Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

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Competitiveness Studies by Year
20072009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024


This page details a year-by-year breakdown of absolute competitiveness in state legislative elections.

Three factors determine how competitive a state's legislative elections are: how many seats are open, meaning no incumbents are running, how many incumbents faced primary challengers, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and a Republican candidate in the general election.

Ballotpedia calculates a competitiveness index for each state holding regularly-scheduled elections in a given year.

Each state is given 1 point for each percentage based on the three factors. Then, the points were added and divided by three to establish the index. 1 is least competitive and 100 is most competitive.

The rows below mean the following:

  • % open seats: This refers to the percentage of seats in that year's elections where the incumbent did not run for re-election.
  • % face primary: This refers to the percentage of incumbents who faced primary opposition
  • % face major party opp: This refers to the percentage of seats where a major party candidate faced major party opposition in the general election.

Overall comparison

This chart compares the total percentages for state legislative competitiveness by year.

Overall Comparison between years
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Competitiveness Index 34.6 28.1 35.2 30.3 30.8 25.4 31.7 34.9 36.1 30.8 33.4 40.0 36.6 31.6 33.2
% Open Seats 18.7% 17.0% 21.9% 6.8% 16.8% 14.7% 17.4% 9.1% 19.7% 19.5% 14.9% 7.7% 23.8% 23.9% 16.6%
% Inc in contested primary 20.0% 21.4% 23.3% 11.7% 19.5% 23.3% 20.2% 16.0% 22.2% 28.9% 20.1% 19.7% 26.8% 26.0% 21.4%
% Candidates with major party opp 65.0% 46.0% 60.4% 72.3% 56.0% 38.3% 57.6% 79.5% 66.3% 44.1% 65.2% 92.7% 59.2% 44.8% 61.7%

By state

Click on the tabs below to view state-specific competitiveness information from 2010 to 2023 for each of the metrics described above.

Most recent

See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 14, 2024

Ballotpedia's 14th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 5,807 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 5, 2024, in 44 states.

State legislative competitiveness in 2024 was below average for even years from 2010 to 2024.

In 2024, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index was 33.2, down from the last three election cycles: 2022 (36.6), 2020 (33.4), and 2018 (36.1).

State legislative competitiveness in 2024 (33.2) was below the 14-year competitiveness index average of 34.0. This average was for even-year elections only. Looking at averages across the last three even-year election cycles: 2024 had fewer open seats, incumbents in contested primaries, and seats with major competition.

Key findings of this report include:

  • 962 seats were open (16.6%). This was the second-smallest number of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.
  • 1,039 incumbents faced contested primaries (21.4%). This was roughly average compared to previous years, down from 26.8% in 2022 but higher than the 20.1% in 2020.
  • 3,583 seats were contested by both major parties (61.7%), higher than in 2022 (59.2%) but lower than in 2018 (66.3%) and 2020 (65.2%).

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2024
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 15.7% 21.1% 61.7% 32.8
    Senate 20.4% 22.8% 61.9% 35.0
    Total 16.6% 21.4% 61.7% 33.2

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2024 along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    Historical years

    Use the tabs below to view state-specific competitiveness data from previous election cycles.

    2023

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 13, 2023

    Ballotpedia's 13th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 578 state legislative seats that were up for election in November 2023 in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

    In 2023, the overall State Legislative Competitiveness Index increased from a decade high 30.8 in 2019 to 31.6. This analysis only includes odd years when all four states held elections (2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023). The data show that 138 (24%) legislative seats up for election were open. This was the largest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011. 

    Of the four states holding elections this year (and previously together in 2011, 2015, and 2019), New Jersey had the highest competitiveness index in all four cycles.

    This year's index score was higher than in 2019 because there were more head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates. Additionally, the number of open seat contests was the largest since at least 2011.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 138 seats were open (23.9%), the largest number and percentage since 2011.
  • 115 incumbents faced contested primaries (26.0%), the second-largest number and percentage since 2011.
  • 259 seats were contested by both major parties (44.8%), the second-largest number since 2011.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2023
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 25.3% 24.3% 42.0% 30.5
    Senate 20.5% 29.7% 51.5% 33.9
    Total 23.9% 26.0% 44.8% 31.6

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2023 along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2022

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 12, 2022

    Ballotpedia's 12th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 6,278 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 8, 2022, in 46 states.

    State legislative competitiveness in 2022 reached its highest level compared to all even-year election cycles since 2010.

    In 2022, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index was 36.6, beating out 2018 (36.1) and the 2012 post-redistricting cycle (35.2).

    The overall rise in competitiveness in 2022 was due to the presence of more open seat contests and incumbents facing more primary challenges. At the same time, there was a decline in head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates in the general election.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,492 seats were open (23.8%), the largest percentage since 2010.
  • 1,299 incumbents faced contested primaries (26.8%), the largest percentage since 2010.
  • 3,719 seats were contested by both major parties (59.2%), the lowest percentage since 2016.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2022
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 23.1% 26.7% 58.7% 36.2
    Senate 26.3% 27.2% 61.3% 38.3
    Total 23.8% 26.8% 59.2% 36.6

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2022 along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.


    2021

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 11, 2021

    Ballotpedia's 11th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 220 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 2, 2021.

    Overall, the 2021 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 38.5, the largest index recorded since Ballotpedia began tracking state legislative competitiveness in 2010. The figure in 2021 represented a 7.7-point increase from 2019 and a 3.6-point increase from 2017, the most recent comparable election year in terms of chambers holding elections.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 17 seats were open (7.7%), down 11.8 percentage points from 2019 and 1.4 percentage points from 2017.
  • 27 incumbents faced contested primaries (15.2%), down 13.7 percentage points from 2019 and 0.8 percentage points from 2017.
  • 204 seats were contested by both major parties (92.7%), up 48.6 percentage points from 2019 and 13.2 percentage points from 2017.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2021
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 7.2% 21.6% 92.2% 40.3
    Senate 10.0% 11.1% 95.0% 38.7
    Total 7.7% 15.2% 92.7% 38.5

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2021, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2020

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

    Ballotpedia's 10th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 5,875 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 3, 2020.

    Overall, the 2020 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 33.4, a decrease of 2.7 points from 2018 but up 1.7 points from 2016, the most recent presidential election year.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 876 seats were open (14.9%), down 4.8 percentage points from 2018 and 2.5 percentage points from 2016.
  • 1,006 incumbents faced contested primaries (20.1%), down 1.1 percentage points from 2018 and 0.1 percentage points from 2016.
  • 3,831 seats were contested by both major parties (65.2%), down 1.1 percentage points from 2018 but up 7.6 percentage points from 2016.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2020
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 14.4% 19.9% 64.7% 33.0
    Senate 17.0% 21.1% 67.3% 35.1
    Total 14.9% 20.1% 65.2% 33.4

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (50.4)
    • West Virginia (50.0)
    • New Hampshire (47.6)
    • California (43.3)
    • Florida (41.9)

    Least competitive:

    • Massachusetts (13.6)
    • Arkansas (19.4)
    • Rhode Island (21.6)
    • Delaware (22.6)
    • Tennessee (23.3)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2020, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2019

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 9, 2019

    Ballotpedia's 9th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 538 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 5, 2019.

    Overall, the 2019 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 30.8, a decrease of 4.1 points from 2017 but up 5.4 points from 2015, the most recent comparable election year in terms of chambers holding elections.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 105 seats were open (19.5%), up 10.4 percentage points from 2017 and 4.8 percentage points from 2015.
  • 125 incumbents faced contested primaries (28.9%), up 12.9 percentage points from 2017 and 5.6 percentage points from 2015.
  • 237 seats were contested by both major parties (44.1%), down 35.4 percentage points from 2017 but up 5.8 percentage points from 2015.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2019
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 17.9% 27.2% 46.2% 30.4
    Senate 17.9% 27.2% 46.2% 30.4
    Total 19.5% 28.9% 44.1% 30.8

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2019, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2018

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

    Ballotpedia's 8th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 6,065 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 6, 2018.

    Overall, the 2018 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 36.1, an increase of 4.4 points from 2016 and up 5.3 points from 2014, the most recent midterm election cycle. At the time, this was the largest index recorded since Ballotpedia began tracking state legislative competitiveness in 2010.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,194 seats were open (19.7%), up 2.3 percentage points from 2016 and 2.9 percentage points from 2014.
  • 1,082 incumbents faced contested primaries (22.2%), up 2.0 percentage points from 2016 and 2.7 percentage points from 2014.
  • 4,020 seats were contested by both major parties (66.3%), up 8.7 percentage points from 2016 and 10.3 percentage points from 2014.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2018
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 19.0% 21.8% 65.5% 35.4
    Senate 22.5% 23.9% 69.7% 38.7
    Total 19.7% 22.2% 66.3% 36.1

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (58.9)
    • Maryland (51.6)
    • Ohio (51.2)
    • Oklahoma (50.8)
    • Arizona (50.3)

    Least competitive:

    • Massachusetts (17.8)
    • New Mexico (22.8)
    • Vermont (23.0)
    • Georgia (23.9)
    • Rhode Island (23.9)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2018, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2017

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 7, 2017

    Ballotpedia's 7th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 220 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 7, 2017.

    Overall, the 2017 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 34.9, an increase of 9.5 points from 2015 and 4.6 points from 2013, the most recent comparable election year in terms of chambers holding elections.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 20 seats were open (9.1%), down 5.6 percentage points from 2015 but up 2.3 percentage points from 2013.
  • 32 incumbents faced contested primaries (16.0%), down 7.3 percentage points from 2015 but up 4.3 percentage points from 2013.
  • 175 seats were contested by both major parties (79.5%), up 41.2 percentage points from 2015 and 7.2 percentage points from 2013.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2017
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 8.3% 17.0% 76.7% 34.0
    Senate 8.3% 17.0% 76.7% 34.0
    Total 8.3% 17.0% 76.7% 34.0

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2017, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2016

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

    Ballotpedia's 6th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 5,916 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 8, 2016.

    Overall, the 2016 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 31.7, an increase of 0.9 points from 2014 but down 3.5 points from 2012, the most recent presidential election year.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,032 seats were open (17.4%), an increase of 0.6 percentage points from 2014.
  • 985 incumbents faced contested primaries (20.2%), an increase of 0.7 percentage points from 2014.
  • 3,408 seats were contested by both major parties (57.6%), an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2014.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2016
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 16.9% 20.3% 57.8% 31.7
    Senate 19.7% 19.6% 56.8% 32.0
    Total 17.4% 20.2% 57.6% 31.7

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (57.3)
    • West Virginia (51.5)
    • New Hampshire (49.3)
    • Nevada (45.9)
    • Wyoming (45.5)

    Least competitive:

    • Massachusetts (13.4)
    • Arkansas (15.5)
    • Georgia (16.8)
    • Rhode Island (18.1)
    • New Mexico (18.4)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2016, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2015

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 5, 2015

    Ballotpedia's 5th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 538 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 3, 2015.

    Overall, the 2015 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 25.4, a decrease of 4.9 points from 2013 and 2.7 points from 2011, the most recent comparable election year in terms of chambers holding elections.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 79 seats were open (14.7%), up 7.9 percentage points from 2013 but down 2.3 percentage points from 2011.
  • 107 incumbents faced contested primaries (23.3%), up 11.6 percentage points from 2013 and 1.9 percentage points from 2011.
  • 206 seats were contested by both major parties (38.3%), down 34.0 percentage points from 2013 and 7.7 percentage points from 2011.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2015
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 13.8% 21.7% 39.6% 25.0
    Senate 13.8% 21.7% 39.6% 25.0
    Total 13.8% 21.7% 39.6% 25.0

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2015, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2014

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014

    Ballotpedia's 4th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 6,051 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 4, 2014.

    Overall, the 2014 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 30.8, a decrease of 4.4 points from 2012.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,019 seats were open (16.8%), down 4.8 percentage points from 2012 and 1.9 percentage points from 2010.
  • 983 incumbents faced contested primaries (19.5%), down 3.8 percentage points from 2012 and 0.5 percentage points from 2012.
  • 3,388 seats were contested by both major parties (56.0%), down 4.4 percentage points from 2012 and 9.0 percentage points from 2012.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2014
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 16.3% 19.4% 55.7% 30.5
    Senate 19.1% 20.0% 57.4% 32.2
    Total 16.8% 19.5% 56.0% 30.8

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (54.5)
    • Maryland (53.2)
    • Montana (47.5)
    • California (47.4)
    • New Hampshire (46.3)

    Least competitive:

    • Georgia (16.3)
    • South Carolina (16.3)
    • Rhode Island (16.9)
    • Vermont (19.3)
    • Illinois (19.6)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2014, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2013

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 3, 2013

    Ballotpedia's 3rd Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 220 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 5, 2013.

    Overall, the 2013 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 30.3, an increase of 2.2 points from 2011.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 15 seats were open (6.8%), down 10.2 percentage points from 2011.
  • 24 incumbents faced contested primaries (11.7%), down 9.7 percentage points from 2011.
  • 159 seats were contested by both major parties (72.3%), up 26.3 percentage points from 2011.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2013
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 7.8% 10.8% 67.2% 28.6
    Senate 2.5% 15.4% 95.0% 37.6
    Total 6.8% 11.7% 72.3% 30.3

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2013, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2012

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 2, 2012

    Ballotpedia's 2nd Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 6,013 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 6, 2012.

    Overall, the 2012 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 35.2, an increase of 0.6 points from 2010.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,314 seats were open (21.9%), up 3.2 percentage points from 2010.
  • 1,117 incumbents faced contested primaries (23.3%), up 3.3 percentage points from 2010.
  • 3,629 seats were contested by both major parties (60.4%), down 4.6 percentage points from 2010.

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2012
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 21.7% 23.3% 60.2% 35.1
    Senate 22.4% 23.4% 60.8% 35.5
    Total 21.9% 23.3% 60.4% 35.2

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (52.8)
    • New Hampshire (52.6)
    • California (52.4)
    • Idaho (52.4)
    • Kansas (47.9)

    Least competitive:

    • Massachusetts (16.0)
    • Vermont (18.5)
    • Georgia (19.2)
    • South Carolina (23.2)
    • Oklahoma (24.1)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2012, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2011

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 1, 2011

    Ballotpedia's 1st Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 578 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 8, 2011.

    Overall, the 2011 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 28.1.

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 98 seats were open (17.0%).
  • 104 incumbents faced contested primaries (21.4%).
  • 206 seats were contested by both major parties (46.0%).

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2011
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 14.4% 19.9% 64.7% 33.0
    Senate 17.0% 21.1% 67.3% 35.1
    Total 14.9% 20.1% 65.2% 33.4

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2011, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    2010

    See also: 2010 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

    Ballotpedia's inaugural State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 6,127 state legislative seats that were up for election on November 2, 2010.

    Overall, the 2010 election cycle had a Competitiveness Index of 34.6

    Key findings of this report include:

  • 1,143 seats were open (18.7%).
  • 995 incumbents faced contested primaries (20.0%).
  • 3,985 seats were contested by both major parties (65.0%).

  • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2010
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 17.5% 20.0% 63.6% 33.7
    Senate 23.4% 20.0% 71.0% 38.1
    Total 18.7% 20.0% 65.0% 34.6

    The lists below show the five states with the highest and lowest Competitiveness Indices:

    Most competitive:

    • Michigan (59.0)
    • Nevada (54.2)
    • Arizona (50.3)
    • New Hampshire (49.6)
    • Maryland (49.1)

    Least competitive:

    • Texas (20.8)
    • South Carolina (20.9)
    • Georgia (23.3)
    • New Mexico (24.1)
    • Oklahoma (24.2)

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2010, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.


    See also

    Footnotes