Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 7, 2017

2017 State Legislative Elections
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2017 elections
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2017 Elections
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Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that the 2017 elections were the most competitive odd-year elections since at least 2011. The 2017 elections—which feature both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature and the Virginia House of Delegates—were more competitive than recent odd-year elections that featured two states (2013) and odd-year elections that featured four states (2011 and 2015).

The relatively high degree of competitiveness compared to previous years was due to the percentage of races being contested by both parties. The 2017 elections had a higher percentage of seats being contested by both major parties than other odd-year elections since at least 2011.

HIGHLIGHTS

In 79.5% of general election races, candidates faced opposition from the other party. In 2013, 72.3% of races featured candidates from both of the major parties.

Incumbents ran in 90.9% of seats up for election in 2017.

Of the incumbents running for re-election, 84.0% did not face primary opposition. In 2013, 88.3% of incumbents running for re-election did not face primary challengers.

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2017 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2017
	2011	2013	2015	2017	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	28.1	30.3	25.4	34.9	29.7
Open seats	17.0%	6.8%	14.7%	9.1%	11.9%
Inc. in contested primaries	21.4%	11.7%	23.3%	16.0%	18.1%
Seats with major party competition	46.0%	72.3%	38.3%	79.5%	59.0%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2017

There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Of that total, there were 20 open seats, guaranteeing at least 9% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2015 (15%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2017:

There were six open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 14 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

The total number of open seats—20—was up from 15 in 2013, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 33% increase.

Open state legislative seats, 2017
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	180	4	11	0	15	8.3%
Senate	40	2	3	0	5	12.5%
Total	220	6	14	0	20	9.1%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2017. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

Incumbents in contested primaries

See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2017

There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Overall, 200 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 16% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was up from 2013 (12%), the last time both states held elections.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In YEAR:

There were 21 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 20% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 50% increase from 2013.

There were 11 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 12% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 10% increase from 2013.

No minor party or independent incumbents faced contested primaries

The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—32—was up from 2013 (24), the last time both states held elections, representing a 33% increase.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2017
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	180	82	19	23.2%	83	9	10.8%	165	28	17.0%
Senate	40	22	2	9.1%	13	2	15.4%	35	4	11.4%
Total	220	104	21	20.2%	96	11	11.5%	200	32	16.0%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2017.

All contested primaries

See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2017

This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 180 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 352 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 51 contested primaries, meaning 15% of all primaries were contested. This was up from 2013 (9%), which was the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections.

In 2017:

There were 33 contested Democratic primaries, representing 19% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 175% increase from 2013.

There were 18 contested Republican primaries, representing 10% of all possible Republican primaries and a 10% decrease from 2013.

The total number of contested primaries—51—was up from 32 in 2013, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 59% increase.

Contested state legislative primaries, 2017
Chamber	Districts
		Democratic		Republican		Top-two/four		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	140	30	22.2%	13	9.5%	0	-	43	15.8%
Senate	40	3	7.5%	5	12.5%	0	-	8	10.0%
Total	180	33	18.9%	18	10.2%	0	N/A	51	14.5%

The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2017.

Major party competition

See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2017

There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Of that total, 45 (21%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 175 (80%) were contested by both major parties. This was the smallest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

In 2017:

Democrats were guaranteed to win 33 seats (15%) that lacked Republican competition, a 32% increase from 2013.

Republicans were guaranteed to win 12 seats (6%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 67% decrease from 2013.

Overall, Democrats ran for 208 seats (95%) and Republicans ran for 187 (85%).

The total number of seats without major party competition—45—was less than in 2013 (61), the last time both states held elections, representing a 26% decrease.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2017
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	180	30	16.7%	12	6.7%	42	23.3%	138	76.7%
Senate	40	03	7.5%	00	0.0%	03	7.5%	37	92.5%
Total	220	33	15.0%	12	5.5%	45	20.5%	175	79.5%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2017.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2017
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2017
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2017
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2017
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2017
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2017
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2017
• Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2017

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