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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 9, 2019

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Updated December 6, 2019
Ballotpedia's 9th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 538 state legislative elections that took place in November 2019. Key findings included:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 301 (55.9%) state legislative elections did not have major party competition, meaning they featured a candidate from just one of the two major political parties.
  • There were more races with two major party candidates in 2019 (44.1%) than there were in 2015 (38.3%), but fewer than there were in 2011 (46.0%).
  • 105 (19.5%) state legislative incumbents did not seek re-election. Of those, 65 were Republicans, 38 were Democrats, and two were minor party or independent officeholders.

    • Only four states hold state legislative elections during odd-numbered years: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. This year, both chambers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia were up for election, along with the New Jersey General Assembly. The last time all of these chambers were up for election at the same time was 2015. The table below shows competitiveness statistics for each odd-year election dating back to 2011.

    This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2019 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2019
    2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 28.1 30.3 25.4 34.9 30.8 29.9
    Open seats 17.0% 6.8% 14.7% 9.1% 19.5% 13.4%
    Inc. in contested primaries 21.4% 11.7% 23.3% 16.0% 28.9% 20.3%
    Seats with major party competition 46.0% 72.3% 38.3% 79.5% 44.1% 56.0%

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2019

    There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2019 in four states. Of that total, there were 105 open seats, guaranteeing at least 20% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the highest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2019:

  • There were 38 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 65 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were two other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—105—was the highest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011, representing a 33% increase from 2015, which was the last time all four states held elections.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2019
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 407 29 42 2 73 17.9%
    Senate 131 9 23 0 32 24.4%
    Total 538 38 65 2 105 19.5%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2019. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2019

    There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2019 in four states. Overall, 433 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 125 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 29% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the largest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2019:

  • There were 68 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 34% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 48% increase from 2015.
  • There were 56 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 25% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 7% decrease from 2015.
  • There was one minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 25% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—125—was up from 2015 (107), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 17% increase.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2019
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 407 158 49 31.0% 172 41 23.8% 334 91 27.2%
    Senate 131 43 19 44.2% 56 15 26.8% 99 34 34.3%
    Total 538 201 68 33.8% 228 56 24.6% 433 125 28.9%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2019.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2019

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 498 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 850 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 215 contested primaries, meaning 25% of all primaries were contested. This was the highest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    In 2019:

  • There were 67 contested Democratic primaries, representing 19% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 37% increase from 2015.
  • There were 56 contested Republican primaries, representing 16% of all possible Republican primaries and a 12% increase from 2015.
  • There were 92 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 64% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 31% increase from 2015.
  • The total number of contested primaries—215—was up from 169 in 2015, the last time all four states held elections, representing a 27% increase.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2019
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 367 45 17.2% 35 13.5% 65 61.9% 145 23.1%
    Senate 131 22 23.9% 21 22.8% 27 69.2% 70 31.4%
    Total 498 67 18.9% 56 15.9% 92 63.9% 215 25.3%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2019.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2019

    There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2019 in four states. Of that total, 301 (56%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 237 (44%) were contested by both major parties. This was the second-largest percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2019:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 142 seats (26%) that lacked Republican competition, a 1% increase from 2015.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 158 seats (29%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 17% decrease from 2015.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 379 seats (70%) and Republicans ran for 395 (73%).
  • There was one seat guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—301—was less than in 2015 (332), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 9% decrease.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2019
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 407 105 25.8% 113 27.8% 219 53.8% 188 46.2%
    Senate 131 37 28.2% 45 34.4% 82 62.6% 49 37.4%
    Total 538 142 26.4% 158 29.4% 301 55.9% 237 44.1%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2019.


    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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