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Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2019
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In 2019, Ballotpedia published primary election competitiveness data following each state's major-party candidate filing deadline. This includes data from state legislative and state executive filings.
The statistics in this report include the percentage of contested partisan primary elections in 2019, the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election, and the percentage of incumbents with a primary challenger. It does not include data on candidates nominated by convention. Click here to scroll to primary election competitiveness data for state elections in 2019. Click here for the 2018 edition of this analysis.
A contested primary is defined as one in which voters have a choice on the ballot. Most commonly, this means that there is more than one candidate from one party in the race. Exceptions to this include states with multi-member legislative districts and states featuring a top-two primary system, such as Louisiana.
Overview
The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines. Corresponding data from 2015 and 2017 are provided for comparative purposes.
- An average of 2.1 candidates per seat ran for election. In 2017, 2.2 candidates per seat ran, and in 2015, 1.9 candidates per seat ran.[1]
- 20.8% of seats were open. In 2017, 10.2% of seats were open, and in 2015, 15.7% of seats were open.
- 28.0% of possible primary races were contested. Comparatively, 16.1% of primaries were contested in 2017, and 21.6% were contested in 2015.
- 30.6% of incumbents faced contested primaries. In 2017, 16.3% of incumbents faced a primary opponent, while in 2015, 24.6% of incumbents faced a contested primary.
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2019. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
2019 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
State executive | 35 | 35 | 14 | 128 | 55 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 69.1% | 14 | 66.7% | |||
State legislative | 498 | 538 | 105 | 1,091 | 850 | 67 | 56 | 92 | 25.3% | 125 | 28.9% | |||
Total | 533 | 573 | 119 | 1,219 | 905 | 77 | 70 | 106 | 28.0% | 139 | 30.6% |
2017
New Jersey and Virginia held state primary elections covered by Ballotpedia in 2017.[2] Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
2017 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 77.8% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
State legislative | 180 | 220 | 20 | 472 | 352 | 33 | 18 | 0 | 14.5% | 32 | 16.0% | |||
Total | 185 | 225 | 23 | 500 | 361 | 36 | 21 | 1 | 16.1% | 33 | 16.3% |
2015
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2015. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
2015 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
State executive | 24 | 24 | 9 | 87 | 41 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 58.5% | 10 | 66.7% | |||
State legislative | 498 | 538 | 79 | 994 | 852 | 49 | 50 | 70 | 19.8% | 107 | 23.3% | |||
Total | 522 | 562 | 88 | 1,081 | 893 | 55 | 61 | 77 | 21.6% | 117 | 24.6% |
2013
New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2013. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
2013 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
State legislative | 180 | 220 | 15 | 428 | 360 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 8.9% | 24 | 11.7% | |||
Total | 185 | 225 | 18 | 442 | 366 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 9.8% | 25 | 12.1% |
2011
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2011. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
2011 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
State executive | 24 | 24 | 7 | 81 | 41 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 53.7% | 8 | 47.1% | |||
State legislative | 538 | 578 | 98 | 1,112 | 874 | 48 | 65 | 81 | 22.2% | 104 | 21.4% | |||
Total | 562 | 602 | 105 | 1,193 | 915 | 54 | 76 | 86 | 23.6% | 112 | 22.3% |
Breakdown by office
State executives
State legislature
See also
- Competitiveness reports: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011
- Elections
- Elections calendar
- State executive official elections, 2019
- State legislative elections, 2019
Footnotes
- ↑ Kentucky governors and lieutenant governors run on a joint ticket. For the purposes of this analysis, they were considered two separate offices.
- ↑ Wisconsin also held a state executive election for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include that office in 2017. Click here to learn more about Ballotpedia's scope.