Fact check/Did federal debt fall over President Trump's first month in office?
Fact check: Did federal debt fall over President Trump's first month in office?
@realDonaldTrump February 25, 2017
March 2, 2017
By Cory Eucalitto
On February 25, President Donald Trump tweeted, "The media has not reported that the National Debt in my first month went down by $12 billion vs a $200 billion increase in Obama first [month]."[1]
Did these changes in the national debt occur as President Trump claimed?
Yes. Total debt fell $11.988 billion over Trump's first month in office and grew $211.811 billion over former President Obama's first month. Total debt is approaching $20 trillion, and relatively small month-to-month fluctuations are common.[2]
Background
President Trump tweeted two days before Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney previewed the new administration’s first budget outline, which reportedly calls for $603 billion in discretionary spending. It proposes a $54 billion increase in defense spending to be funded by equivalent cuts in discretionary non-defense spending.[3] President Trump will release a more detailed plan in March followed by a full budget proposal in May.[4][3] According to press secretary Sean Spicer, the president plans "to focus on the discretionary side" of spending, which excludes federal assistance programs such as Social Security and Medicare.[3]
Total federal debt is made up of two types of debt: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. Debt held by the public, currently 72 percent of total debt, "is all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, Federal Reserve Banks, foreign governments, and other entities outside the United States Government less Federal Financing Bank securities," according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.[5][2]
Intragovernmental holdings, currently 28 percent of total debt, are "securities held by Government trust funds, revolving funds, and special funds; and Federal Financing Bank securities."[5][2]
Trump's claim was based on the total debt.
National debt under Trump
The day President Trump took office, January 20, 2017, the total federal debt was $19.947 trillion. One month after Trump took office, on February 21, 2017, the total federal debt was $19.935 trillion.[2][6] That's a drop of $12 billion.
National debt under Obama
President Barack Obama took office on January 20, 2009, when the national debt was $10.627 trillion. On February 20, 2009, the national debt was $10.839 trillion.[2] That's a $212 billion increase.
Debt fluctuations
Small fluctuations in government debt are a daily occurrence.[2] Much like a business, the government's revenues and outlays change constantly: As explained by the Treasury Department: "[T]here are times when the Federal Government has more cash coming in than it needs to meet its obligations. During these times, the Federal Government invests some of this money and also does not need to do new borrowing to meet its obligations. Incoming revenue rises when individuals and businesses file and pay their federal taxes. When the rise in revenue exceeds what is needed to pay obligations, Treasury can pay down its debt by redeeming more securities than it issues."[7]
Size and growth of the debt
The fluctuations cited by Trump are small in the context of total national debt. The $12 billion decrease he cited represented 0.06 percent of the total debt on that day; the $212 billion increase over President Obama's first month represented 1.95 percent of the total debt at the time.[2]
Total debt grew $9.320 trillion, or 88 percent, over President Obama's two terms in office (January 21, 2009, to January 21, 2017).[2]
The ratio of a nation's debt to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator of the sustainability of that debt, based on the total value of goods and services produced in a country each year.[8] As of July 2016, total debt was equal to 105 percent of GDP.[9]
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has forecast that under current law, spending growth (particularly for Social Security, Medicare, and net interest) will outpace revenue growth, leading to higher debt. Under these circumstances, CBO projects debt held by the public (currently 72 percent of total debt) in 2027 will equal 89 percent of GDP. This would be the highest percentage since 1947 and more than double the average from the past 50 years relative to GDP.[10]
Conclusion
President Trump tweeted, "The media has not reported that the National Debt in my first month went down by $12 billion vs a $200 billion increase in Obama first [month]."[1]
Ballotpedia confirmed Trump's claim. However, these are small and common fluctuations in the size of federal debt.
Sources and Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Twitter, "@realDonaldTrump," February 25, 2017 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "tweet" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Treasury Direct, "The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It," accessed February 27, 2017
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 The White House, "Press Briefing by Press Secretary Sean Spicer, 2/27/2017, #17," February 27, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "Trump: Budget will boost military spending and law enforcement spending, 'do more with less,'" February 27, 2017
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Treasury Direct, "Frequently Asked Questions about the Public Debt," accessed February 28, 2017
- ↑ The closest dates with debt figures available were February 17 and February 21, 2017.
- ↑ Treasury Direct, "Why does the debt fluctuate?" accessed March 1, 2017
- ↑ Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, "General government debt," accessed March 1, 2017
- ↑ FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product," accessed March 2, 2017
- ↑ Congressional Budget Office, "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027," January 24, 2017
Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.
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