Fact check: Has crime increased in Missouri on Attorney General Chris Koster’s watch?

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• ABOUT FACT CHECK

St. Louis, Missouri

November 8, 2016
By Fact Check by Ballotpedia staff

Republican Eric Greitens and Democrat Chris Koster are vying to be the next governor of Missouri. A TV ad by Greitens’ campaign, released October 3, features a clip of a 2012 ad from Koster’s campaign for attorney general in which he vowed to fight crime. The Greitens ad then claims that violent crime in Missouri increased by 12.6 percent in 2015, murders jumped by nearly 25 percent, and St. Louis is “the most dangerous city in the country.”

Are Greitens’ claims about crime accurate?

Only partially. The specific data points in Greitens’ ad are accurate, but they do not represent the crime trends during Koster’s tenure as attorney general. The ranking of St. Louis as “the most dangerous city” is subjective.

Background

Koster was born and raised in St. Louis, graduated from the University of Missouri School of Law, and served as prosecuting attorney in Cass County, in western Missouri. Koster served as a state senator from 2005-2009, first as a Republican, then as a Democrat, before being taking office as state attorney general in 2009.

Greitens grew up in suburban St. Louis County. He graduated from Duke University, and later became a Rhodes Scholar and a White House Fellow. Greitens is a former Navy SEAL who fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. He founded a nonprofit group, The Mission Continues, which connects veterans with volunteer work.

Crime in Missouri

Violent crime statewide rose by 12.2 percent in 2015, according to a report by the Missouri State Highway Patrol. The state defines violent offenses as murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and human trafficking. The violent crime rate — the measure of violent crimes per 100,000 persons (a more precise figure) — increased by 15.1 percent last year (compared to 2014).

However, from the start of Koster’s term as attorney general in 2009, through 2015, Missouri’s violent crime rate dropped by 4.68 percent, while the crime rate overall fell by 18.4 percent.

Murder in Missouri

The number of murders in Missouri jumped 23.6 percent from 2014 to 2015 (from 402 to 497), and the murder rate increased by 26.7 percent in that one year. From 2009 to 2015, the murder rate rose by 15.5 percent.

How dangerous is St. Louis?

The Greitens campaign claim that St. Louis is “the most dangerous city in the country” came from a list compiled by the financial news and opinion website 24/7 Wall St., which ranked cities with populations of 100,000 or more based, in part, on 2015 data from the FBI report “Crime in the United States 2015.” The website also factored in property crimes, poverty rates, and unemployment, among other social and economic conditions.

The FBI, however, cautions against ranking communities based on crime data because of differences in the composition of the population, economic conditions, the effectiveness of law enforcement agencies and other factors.

Conclusion

Eric Grietens and Chris Koster are running in Missouri's 2016 gubernatorial election. A TV ad by Greitens’ campaign claims that despite Koster’s pledge to fight crime as attorney general, violent crime in Missouri increased by 12.6 percent in 2015, murders jumped by nearly 25 percent, and St. Louis is “the most dangerous city in the country.”

We found that violent crime in 2015 rose by 12.6 percent and murders increased by 23.6 percent. However, these figures do not provide an accurate picture of the crime trends during Koster’s tenure as attorney general. From the start of Koster’s term as attorney general in 2009, to 2015, Missouri’s violent crime rate fell by 4.68 percent. From 2009 to 2015, the murder rate rose by 15.5 percent.

The website 24/7 Wall St. ranked St. Louis as “the most dangerous city in the country” based on factors of its own choosing.

See also

• Fact check/Was Kurt Schaefer the only Republican in the Missouri Legislature to vote against a bill allowing businesses to opt out of including contraception in employee health insurance plans?
• Eric Greitens
• Chris Koster
• Missouri gubernatorial election, 2016

Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.

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