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Gasoline prices are affected by crude oil prices, which are in turn affected by supply and demand, financial markets, international politics, environmental regulation, taxes, weather, and other factors. When the supply of oil increases due to increased production, the price will likely decrease. When demand increases—either from individual consumers or oil-dependent industries—the price will likely increase. Production may increase or decrease depending on advances in technology, changes in industry regulation, policy changes, political forces, and more.[1][2][3]

This article outlines the factors that affect the price of crude oil and gasoline.

Supply and demand

In general, a price will likely increase if supply decreases and demand increases. By contrast, a price will likely decrease if supply increases and demand decreases. The result is what is called the equilibrium price, which is the price at which supply is equal to the quantity of goods demanded. Multiple factors can influence supply and demand.[4]

The following information details the factors that may affect the supply and demand of crude oil and by extension gasoline prices.

OPEC

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OPEC is an intergovernmental organization that collectively agrees to implement certain crude oil policies to influence the global price of oil. The group was first organized in September 1960. As of February 2017, Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela were member countries. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), "Historically, crude oil prices have seen increases in times when OPEC production targets are reduced." This is due primarily to OPEC's share of global production. As of February 2017, OPEC member countries accounted for approximately 40 percent of worldwide crude oil production, and their exports accounted for 60 percent of all petroleum bought and sold worldwide. Additionally, as the largest oil producer in OPEC, Saudi Arabia alone can affect oil prices if the country signals any changes in crude oil production. Moreover, geopolitical events within and between OPEC member countries may also have an effect on oil markets. According to the EIA, these events have historically led to reduced oil production. Further, geopolitical events that could lead to fewer oil supplies in the present or the future can affect oil prices.[5][6]

In the short term, an OPEC member may profit from producing more oil than is agreed upon by other members; thus, OPEC countries may deviate from agreed upon production targets. For example, as the price of oil declined to approximately $30 a barrel in early 2016, OPEC member countries began to discuss potential production cuts to limit the supply of oil and thus increase the price. However, prices were at a point where other OPEC countries experienced budget shortfalls. These countries attempted to address their shortfalls by increasing production and selling more oil. On the other hand, OPEC countries may be able to bring about higher than market prices for oil over the long term and thus collect more revenue by coordinating with other OPEC countries. Due to this coordination, OPEC countries can affect the price of oil by responding to changes in the market in ways that non-OPEC countries cannot.[5][7]

Non-OPEC

OPEC member countries set production targets to influence the price of oil.

As of February 2017, production from non-OPEC countries accounted for 60 percent of all crude oil production, according to the EIA. These countries are referred to as Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries or non-OPEC countries. They include countries in North America, the North Sea, and Baltic countries. Non-OPEC members face different incentives than OPEC member countries. Most non-OPEC oil production is done by private companies or national oil companies (oil companies owned by a country's government). In general, private oil companies operate to increase the value of their company and to benefit their shareholders. National oil companies in general operate to generate government revenue. These companies seek to maximize production in order to maximize profits and thus must take into account the market price for oil. Oil companies can invest in and develop new oil and gas extraction technologies to increase efficiency and production. Over time, these technologies may cause global oil prices to decrease by lowering production costs. Unlike OPEC-affiliated oil producers, non-OPEC companies cannot influence the price of oil to the extent OPEC countries can. This is mainly due to the lack of centralized coordination in non-OPEC oil production. In non-OPEC countries, the majority of oil production is conducted by privately owned companies rather than nationalized oil companies, which account for most of the production in OPEC countries.[8]

In a March 2016 report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) contended that if the price of oil can be expected to increase, non-OPEC countries may increase their oil inventories so as to sell their oil at a higher price. If oil supply is greater than demand, excess inventory may be stored for later use in an effort to keep prices from falling (oil and other liquid fuels can be kept in either storage terminals or refineries). In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy managed 713.5 million barrels of oil as part of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of July 31, 2016. This reserve can be used in response to a rapid increase in oil prices to prevent rising gasoline prices for consumers.[8][9][10]

Impact of U.S. production on prices

In December 2015, Congress repealed the 1975 crude oil export ban, which was enacted in response to rising crude oil prices as a result of the 1973 OPEC embargo on oil exports to the United States. Below are summaries of eight studies on the potential impact of the ban's repeal on domestic gasoline prices. The studies were conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the Congressional Budget Office, Columbia University, the Brookings Institution, Aspen Institute, ICF International, and Resources for the Future. Overall, these studies estimated that gasoline prices would decrease anywhere from 1.5 cents per gallon to 13 cents per gallon.[11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]

Expected impacts of lifting the crude oil export ban on U.S. gasoline prices
Study author Decrease in gasoline price Publication date Source
U.S. Government Accountability Office 1.5 cents to 13 cents September 2014 Source link
Congressional Budget Office 5 cents to 10 cents December 2014 Source link
Columbia University As much as 12 cents January 2015 Source link
Brookings Institution Average of 9 cents September 2014 Source link
Aspen Institute As much as 9 cents October 2014 Source link
ICF International Average of 2.3 cents March 2014 Source link
Resources for the Future 1.7 cents to 4.5 cents February 2014 Source link
See the links above for access to the complete studies.

Fracking and crude oil prices

From 2008 to 2015, an increase in domestic crude oil production followed from an increased use of hydraulic fracturing (also known as fracking) and horizontal drilling. A 2015 study by the American Petroleum Institute (API), an oil and natural gas industry group, argued that oil production in Texas, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota was comparable to the production of energy-producing countries. API Vice President for Regulatory and Economic Policy Kyle Isakower argued, “Thanks to innovations in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, states like Texas and Pennsylvania now outpace many OPEC countries in oil or natural gas production. Rising domestic production has helped to reshape global markets and revitalize job creation here in the United States.”[23][24]

Ryan Sitton (R), one of three members on the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates oil and gas production in Texas, argued, "U.S. imports of oil went from greater than 60 percent down to lower than 40 percent. So we cut out a good 20 percent of all the oil that we used. … We changed from net imports to now using that 20 percent here that we produce in the United States. And that brought a lot of stability to the markets."[25][11]

Production costs

Cost to produce a barrel of oil

Based on data from Rystad Energy, an independent oil and gas consulting services and data firm, a January 2016 report from The Wall Street Journal found that on average it cost oil producers $23.35 to produce one barrel of oil from a shale well (unconventional) and $20.99 to produce a barrel of oil from a non-shale well (conventional) in the United States in 2016. The report used four classifications to calculate the cost of producing a barrel of oil: capital costs, production costs, taxes, and administrative/transportation costs. For both non-shale wells and shale wells, the highest costs were capital costs, which are the one-time costs of exploring a new well, developing the site around a well, and installing pipelines or other infrastructure. Production costs involve extracting the oil and paying employee salaries. Taxes vary by state, though The Wall Street Journal found that taxes compose 27.5 percent of the total cost to produce a barrel of oil from a shale well and 24 percent of the cost to produce a barrel of oil from a non-shale well. States levy a tax on the amount of oil or gas produced; this tax may also vary based on the market price for oil. Other states may charge an impact fee to drill a well. Administrative and transportation costs accounted for the remainder of the costs.[26][27]

Shale well costs, 2016.png
Non-shale well costs, 2016.png
Cost to produce a barrel of oil
Shale Non-shale
Component Cost Percent Cost Percent
Capital $7.56 32.40% $7.70 36.70%
Production $5.85 25.10% $5.15 24.50%
Taxes $6.42 27.50% $5.03 24.00%
Administrative/Transportation $3.52 15.10% $3.11 14.80%
Total $23.35 -- $20.99 --
Source:The Wall Street Journal, "Barrel Breakdown"

The following chart shows the weekly price for a barrel of oil for two oil types: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in blue and Brent Blend in brown. The data in the chart is from January 1986 to May 2016 and was compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. WTI is used as a benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States, and Brent is used as a global benchmark price. Two noticeable declines in the price of oil occurred from 1986 to 2016. The first began in summer 2008 as part of the events surrounding the 2008 financial crisis and recession. The second decline began in summer 2014. Factors involved in the 2014 decline included growing production in the United States, Canada, and Iran, continued production from OPEC countries and Russia, and weak demand for oil in European countries.[28][29][30]

Financial factors

Within financial markets, several factors can affect the price of oil. These factors include stocks, bonds, currencies, and futures contracts:[31]

No clear relationship has been found between the stock market and oil prices, according to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
  • Stocks: As the economy improves, demand for goods generally increases. Thus, demand for raw goods (such as oil) may increase, and companies may see rising profits. Rising profits may then contribute to growth in the stock market (this situation may be the reverse if the economy worsens).
  • Bonds: As the economy improves, interest rates generally tend to rise. Because interest rates and bonds tend to move in opposite directions, bond prices and the price of oil tend to move in opposite directions.
  • Currencies: Oil is priced in American dollars. Thus, changes in the value of the U.S. dollar can affect the price of oil. For example, if the U.S. dollar depreciates, the price at which oil is sold generally decreases. If the value of the dollar decreases relative to another country's currency, that country can buy more dollars to purchase more oil. A decrease in the price of oil may increase demand for oil and thus put pressure on the price of oil to increase.
  • Futures contracts: A person can buy, sell, or trade oil and can also buy, sell, and trade contracts for the future sale of oil (known as futures contracts or speculative trading). These contracts allow someone to purchase a certain amount of oil at a future date at an agreed upon price. For example, an airline may agree to a futures contract to buy oil at a certain price if the airline anticipates rising oil prices in the near future. If the price rises, the airline will get its oil at a price lower than the market price. Futures contracts may indicate what buyers expect to happen in the oil market in the future and thus may affect oil prices.

Speculation

One factor studied by oil market analysts is speculation. Speculation "is the act of purchasing something today with the anticipation of selling it at a higher price at a later date." Speculation in the oil market involves futures contracts (described above). Oil futures traders make a profit if they sell their futures for more than the purchase price. Oil futures traders generally represent a larger portion of the oil futures market than people interested in purchasing a physical supply of oil.[32][33][34]

According to a 2011 Congressional Research Service report, "Neither economists nor regulators have reached a consensus as to the causes of oil price movements in recent years—some point to the fundamentals (where both demand and supply are inelastic in the short run, and questions exist about the capacity to meet growing global demand in the long run), while others focus on financial markets. Both are possible sources of price volatility."[35]

Research

Below are summaries of economic studies on the role of speculation in rising oil prices. In an April 2013 study, Daniel Murphy, an economist at the University of Virginia, argued that multiple factors affect the global price of oil. Because oil prices are affected by multiple factors, it can be difficult to gauge the impact of a single factor. In his co-authored study on the oil price increase from 2003 to 2008, Murphy contended that speculation had a negligible impact on the price of oil. According to Murphy, global demand and supply are the two most important factors in oil prices. In addition, Murphy argued that sudden increases in the demand for oil have a larger impact on the price of oil because it is costly to drill for new oil supplies to meet increased oil demand.[36]

In 2008, the price of oil increased in a short period of time. In response, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) set up a commission to study the potential role of speculators. The commission argued that "current oil prices and the increase in oil prices between January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental supply and demand factors. ... The Task Force’s preliminary analysis to date does not support the proposition that speculative activity has systematically driven changes in oil prices."[37][38][20][39][40]

An April 2012 report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve argued that the following four items had impacted oil prices. The four items are listed in order of their purported impact on oil prices (from largest to smallest).[32]

  1. Global supply is the amount of oil available for use worldwide. Unexpected production cuts, particularly from OPEC, can lead to higher oil prices.
  2. Global demand is the demand for oil by individuals, companies, and governments. As economies grow, the demand for oil grows; as the demand for oil increases, prices can also increase.
  3. Oil inventory demand: If there is a sudden decline in the supply of oil, oil producers may temporarily store rather than sell oil, which may increase the price.
  4. Speculation: As demand increases for future contracts, the price of oil may increase.

Outside of the United States, OPEC and individual member countries cited speculation as a cause of decreasing oil prices. In May 2015, OPEC called speculation "one other important factor that contributed to the downturn" of gasoline prices.[41][20][42][43][44][45]

Government impact

Given the role of oil in the global economy, governments institute policies to affect both the supply and demand for oil. These policies affect supply by either increasing or decreasing production. For example, governments can enact legislation or rules that provide tax credits to oil companies or reduce taxes on production to incentivize greater production. Similarly, governments can enact regulations or levy taxes that increase the cost of oil production to disincentivize production. On the demand side, governments can levy taxes on gasoline by the gallon to raise the price and decrease demand or reduce gasoline taxes as an incentive for consumers to purchase gasoline. Additionally, governments can institute bans on oil production or require greater use of alternative forms of energy.[8]

Taxes

Click to enlarge.

Revenue collected by federal, state, and local governments from fuel taxes is often used to fund transportation infrastructure, such as roads and bridges. States may charge an excise tax based on how much gas or diesel is purchased. Other states may charge a retail tax based on the average price of gas over a certain period. Additionally, states may charge an environmental tax to be used for environmental projects or alternative energy projects. In the map below, the Tax Foundation used data from the American Petroleum Institute to convert each state's tax structure into cents per gallon to compare each state's gas taxes. In 2016, gas taxes accounted for 23 percent of the price of gasoline. Crude oil accounted for 40 percent of the price of gasoline, refining accounted for 24 percent of the price, and distribution and marketing accounted for 13 percent of the remainder.[46][47]

Federal tax

The first federal tax on gasoline was proposed by Secretary of the Treasury Ogden L. Mills under President Herbert Hoover (R) as a revenue generating measure to balance the budget during the Great Depression. A 1-cent tax per gallon of imported gasoline and fuel oil was passed as part of the Revenue Act of 1932 and signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (D). The 1-cent tax continued until 1951 when the tax was increased to 2 cents in part to raise revenue during the Korean War. In 1956, the tax was raised to 3 cents to fund the Interstate Highway System. During this time, the Highway Trust Fund was created as a means to fund highway construction. Since 1956, there have been increases to the tax. As of April 2016, the gas tax was last raised by President Bill Clinton (D) in 1993 to 18.4 cents per gallon.[48]


State and local taxes

Oregon was the first state to implement a gas tax in 1919. In 1929, each state had a gas tax. The table below shows each state's gasoline tax separated by tax type. As of January 2016, Pennsylvania had the highest gas tax at 68.8 cents per gallon (including both state and federal taxes). Alaska had the lowest total gas tax at 30.65 cents per gallon. The average state and federal gas tax was 48.69 cents per gallon.[49][50]

Additionally, local governments can charge gas taxes. The list below shows areas with local gas taxes and the tax total or range as of April 2016. This information comes from the American Road and Transportation Builders Association.[51]


Other factors

Weather

Gasoline prices can be affected by the time of the year and the weather. In the spring, refineries tend to perform annual maintenance, which may lower the supply of oil and put pressure on prices to increase. As the weather warms, people tend to drive more. This may increase the demand for gasoline and may contribute to an increase in prices. During the winter, consumers drive less, which may decrease gasoline prices. Meanwhile, natural disasters and large weather events can disrupt the supply of gasoline and may lead to higher prices.[2]

Location

In addition to state and local taxes, other location-based factors can influence the price of gasoline. The cost of doing business in a given area—rent, wages, business taxes, etc.—can affect gasoline prices. Competition between gas stations may also affect the price. Other prices may be affected by local demand, which can be affected by the availability of public transportation and the size of the local population. The cost of transporting oil from a refinery to gas stations may also affect the price; in general, the longer the distance gasoline has to travel to the consumer, the higher the price of the gasoline.[2]

Oil market terminology

What are the differences among crude oil, petroleum, and oil?
Petroleum as a category encompasses crude oil and petroleum products, though the terms petroleum and oil can sometimes be used interchangeably. Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons in liquid form located under the Earth's surface. The term crude is used because the oil must be refined before it can be used as a fuel or to make petroleum-derived products. Types of crude oil, which include light, intermediate, and heavy oil, are classified by where the oil is from and its weight and viscosity.[52][53]

Over 160 types of oil are traded globally. Oil can be grouped under two main characteristics: the type of oil and the oil's location.[54]
Types of oil

  1. Very light oils are known as light distillates. This type of oil can be highly volatile in that it evaporates easily. Gasoline, jet fuel, and kerosene are very light oils.
  2. Light oils are known as middle distillates. Diesel fuel oil, grade 1 fuel, and grade 2 fuel fall into this category.
  3. Medium oils is a common type of crude oil that is more volatile than light oil.
  4. Heavy oils evaporate relatively slowly (low volatility). Included in this group are grades 3 through 6 fuel oils and heavy marine fuels.

Oil types by location

  1. West Texas Intermediate (WTI): WTI fuels are usually refined in the United States in Midwestern and Gulf states.
  2. Brent Blend (Brent): This oil is a combination of oils extracted from oil fields located between Northern Scotland and the North Sea. Most of this oil is refined in Northern Europe. This type is often priced higher than the OPEC basket described below.
  3. OPEC Basket: This group includes crude oil from Algeria, Dubai, Indonesia, the Mexican Isthmus, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. This oil is usually heavier than the types listed above and is often priced lower than WTI or Brent oil.

Energy policy in the 50 states

Click on a state below to read more about that state's energy policy.

http://ballotpedia.org/Energy_policy_in_STATE

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "What Drives Crude Oil Prices, Overview," accessed April 17, 2016
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Behind the Signs: Factors That Affect Gasoline Prices," accessed April 27, 2016
  3. ↑ Resources for the Future, "Does Speculation Drive Oil Prices?" November 26, 2012
  4. ↑ Investopedia, "The law of supply and demand," accessed February 15, 2017
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Supply: OPEC," April 12, 2016
  6. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Glossary - O," accessed April 17, 2016
  7. ↑ The New York Times, "In Doha, Major Oil Exporters Fail to Agree on Production Freeze," April 17, 2016
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Supply:Non-OPEC," April 12, 2016
  9. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Balance," March 31, 2016
  10. ↑ U.S. Department of Energy, "SPR Quick Facts and FAQs," accessed April 5, 2017
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 American Petroleum Institute, "States compete among top energy producing nations," May 28, 2015
  12. ↑ Upstream Texas, "Political Considerations Weigh Heavily on Outlook for Crude Oil Exports," Spring/Summer 2015
  13. ↑ The Aspen Institute, "Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban: The Impact on U.S. Manufacturing," October 2014
  14. ↑ American Petroleum Institute, "U.S. Crude Oil Exports," February 2015
  15. ↑ U.S. Government Accountability Office, "CHANGING CRUDE OIL MARKETS Allowing Exports Could Reduce Consumer Fuel Prices, and the Size of the Strategic Reserves Should Be Reexamined," September 2014
  16. ↑ Congressional Budget Office, "The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Producing Oil and Natural Gas from Shale," December 2014
  17. ↑ Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, "Navigating the U.S. Oil Export Debate," January 2015"
  18. ↑ The Brookings Institution, "Changing Markets Economic Opportunities from Lift the U.S. Ban on Crude Oil Exports," September 2014
  19. ↑ Forbes, "End Of Crude Oil Export Ban Could Have Negative Unintended Consequences," December 22, 2015
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 Resources for the Future, "Crude Behavior: How Lifting the Export Ban Reduces Gasoline Prices in the United States," February 2014 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "RFF" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "RFF" defined multiple times with different content
  21. ↑ ICF International, "The Impacts of U.S. Crude Oil Exports on Domestic Crude Production, GDP, Employment, Trade, and Consumer Costs," March 14, 2014
  22. ↑ UPI, "U.S. sectors spar over crude oil exports," May 29, 2015
  23. ↑ American Petroleum Institute, "States Compete Among Top Energy Producing Countries," May 28, 2015
  24. ↑ American Petroleum Institute, "Crude Oil Production," accessed April 6, 2016
  25. ↑ Ballotpedia Senior Writer Brittany Clingen, "Interview with Ryan Sitton," May 29, 2015
  26. ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "Barrel Breakdown," April 15, 2016
  27. ↑ Market Realist, "War of Words: OPEC Nations and the Crude Oil Market," January 13, 2016
  28. ↑ The New York Times, "Oil Prices Explained: Signs of a Modest Revival," May 16, 2016
  29. ↑ Investopedia, "Understanding Benchmark Oils: Brent Blend, WTI and Dubai," February 20, 2016
  30. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "EIA Chart Widget," accessed May 24, 2016
  31. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Financial Markets," March 31, 2016
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 St. Louis Federal Reserve, "When Oil Prices Jump, Is Speculation To Blame?" April 2012
  33. ↑ European Central Bank, "What is Driving Oil Futures Prices?" August 2011
  34. ↑ National Public Radio, "Oil #2: The Price Of Oil," August 12, 2016
  35. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "Hedge Fund Speculation and Oil Prices," June 29, 2011
  36. ↑ Journal of Applied Econometrics, "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," April 10, 2013
  37. ↑ Commodities Futures Trading Commission, "Interim Report on Crude Oil," July 2008
  38. ↑ The Washington Post, "The fallacy of oil ‘speculation’," May 2, 2012
  39. ↑ James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, "Speculation, Fundamentals, and the Price Of Crude Oil," August 2013
  40. ↑ International Monetary Fund, "Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation," December 2014
  41. ↑ The Washington Post, "A Few Speculators Dominate Vast Market for Oil Trading," August 21, 2008
  42. ↑ Bloomberg, "OPEC Says Speculation Played Important Role in Oil’s Decline," May 4, 2015
  43. ↑ Huffington Post, "Bernie Sanders Accuses Oil Speculators Of Using Iraq As An Excuse To Drive Up Prices," June 20, 2014
  44. ↑ Oil Price.com, "Ignoring Fundamentals: Speculation Has Been Driving Oil Prices," August 26, 2016
  45. ↑ Reuters, "Hedge funds establish near-record bullish bet on rising oil prices: Kemp," March 29, 2016
  46. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update," accessed April 25, 2016
  47. ↑ Tax Foundation, "How High Are Gas Taxes in Your State?" July 23, 2016
  48. ↑ U.S. Department of Transportation, "When did the Federal Government begin collecting the gas tax?" November 18, 2015
  49. ↑ The Washington Post, "A (very) brief history of the state gas tax on its 95th birthday," February 25, 2014
  50. ↑ American Petroleum Institute, "Motor Fuel Taxes," accessed April 27, 2016
  51. ↑ American Road and Transportation Builders Association, "State Motor Fuel Tax Rates," accessed April 26, 2016
  52. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration, "What is the difference between crude oil, petroleum products, and petroleum?" December 8, 2014
  53. ↑ Ranken Energy, "A partial list of products made from Petroleum," accessed April 6, 2015
  54. ↑ OilPrice.com, "A Detailed Guide on the Many Different Types of Crude Oil," December 2, 2009
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