Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 5 (February 12, 2018)
This week: A few races start to get rough, and primaries pop-up where they haven’t before. See something we missed, or have a tip? Drop us a line at editor@ballotpedia.org. We’re covering both sides, so if you haven’t already done so, please subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries: Republicans. And feel free to share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC)
Passed filing deadlines: 7
Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,176 Democrats, 846 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Is it time for Republicans to start freaking out?
More than 40 House Republican incumbents were outraised in the final quarter of 2017 by one — or several — of their Democratic opponents, according to the latest round of fundraising numbers. And of that group, more than a dozen had less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers.”
- Elena Schneider, Politico, Feb. 5, 2018
“We’re never going to match them dollar for dollar. Fortunately, in this climate, we don’t need to. We can tap into our supporters’ enthusiasm and majority disapproval of Trump. We can leverage the small-dollar donor base, give directly to campaigns, support local organizing efforts, and invest in national groups.”
- Jesse Ferguson, USA Today, Feb. 6, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 50
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Rep. Rick Nolan (D) becomes 50th member of U.S. House to not seek re-election
Rep. Rick Nolan (D), re-elected in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District in 2016 by 2,000 votes, announced Friday he was retiring. Nolan is the 50th member of the U.S. House to not seek re-election.
Former FBI counterterrorism analyst Leah Phifer (D), the only Democrat currently in the race, raised $35,000 in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Actress Diane Neal runs as independent rather than Democrat in NY-19
Though she’s a registered Democrat, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit actress Diane Neal announced Tuesday she was running in New York's 19th Congressional District as an independent.
In an interview, Neal said, "I’m a little Libertarian, I’m a lot liberal, mostly progressive, but I have this amazing ability to be able to take really complicated policy and break it down into edible sound bites, which is something most progressive liberals cannot do."
The six Democrats in the race include attorney Antonio Delgado (D) and businessman Pat Ryan (D), who both raised more than incumbent Rep. John Faso (R) in the fourth quarter of 2017.
County parties endorse in NJ-07
In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, Hunterdon County Democrats backed former State Department official Tom Malinowski, while the Somerset County Democrats endorsed banking executive Linda Weber. When New Jersey’s county parties make endorsements, those candidates appear together on the ballot.
Malinowski had the fundraising advantage in the fourth quarter of 2017, with $528,000 to Weber’s $279,000.
Gillibrand and Bernie PACs pick sides in IL-04
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) Off the Sidelines PAC joined EMILY's List in endorsing Sol Flores in Illinois' 4th Congressional District Monday.
The pro-Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Our Revolution Illinois backed Jesus Garcia in January. Garcia outraised Flores in the fourth quarter of 2017, $190,000 to $79,000.
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Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Former state Senate President calls on J.B. Pritzker to withdraw from Illinois primary
A wiretapped November 2008 phone conversation released Tuesday between businessman and Illinois gubernatorial candidate J.B. Pritzker (D) and then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) revealed the two discussing potential appointees to fill then-president-elect Barack Obama’s (D) Senate seat.
Pritzker backed Secretary of State Jesse White (D). Appointing White, Pritzker said, would leave open “the Secretary of State spot, which is the key spot." Pritzker also said the appointment of an African-American to Obama’s former Senate seat would mean that "you don’t have to put an African-American in [the Secretary of State] spot."
In the recording, Pritzker called former Illinois State Senate President Emil Jones (D), a poor choice to replace Obama. Jones, who endorsed businessman Chris Kennedy (D) in the gubernatorial primary, called on Pritzker to withdraw from the race. Pritzker and Kennedy are among six Democratic candidates seeking the nomination. Under Illinois law, the March 20 primary is open to all voters.
Illinois Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 11/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 37/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 67/118
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 seats in state legislatures during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 27.5 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 3.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 46.6 percent.
Massachusetts incumbents facing primary challenges
In a break from past years, when primary challenges were scarce, several Democratic incumbents in the Massachusetts General Court will face competition in the state’s Sept. 4 primaries.
“Newcomers are largely younger, female, and diverse, all taking on long-term white male incumbents,” according to Politico. So far, six state representatives and one state senator have primary challengers. The candidate filing deadline is June 5.
The challenges are part of a progressive backlash against House Speaker Robert DeLeo (D), who activist groups say has blocked their priorities on criminal justice, family leave, and health care. In 2017, former state Sen. Dan Wolf (D) said DeLeo should face a primary challenge for his alleged digressions from the state party’s platform.
Democrats currently hold a 124-34 majority in the state House and a 31-7 majority in the state Senate.
Texas primary pits procedural expert against constituent-focused incumbent
Former Texas state House District 116 Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer is trying to win his old seat back after losing a bid for state Senate in 2016. His replacement, Diana Arevalo, is not backing down, setting up a clash for the San Antonio-based seat March 6.
While they agree on policy, they don’t on style. During his 16-year House tenure, Martinez Fischer used his procedural expertise to delay Republican initiatives. He says this will be important if Republicans move further right in the 2018 elections.
Arevalo says her focus on constituent service and community engagement is superior to Martinez Fischer’s and that her opposition to sexism in the state House is more important than ever.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
National Democratic Redistricting Committee
"From my perspective, success is if you break a trifecta... I don't think that in December of 2018, you measure success only by whether you have assumed control of a particular state." -Eric Holder, chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee
The National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) released a list of 12 states it is targeting and another eight it's watching. The group, chaired by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and backed by former President Barack Obama (D), plans to raise $30 million in the current election cycle. Its aim is to position Democrats to be power players in the post-2020 census round of redistricting. "American voters deserve fair maps that represent our diverse communities - and we need a coordinated strategy to make that happen," Holder said. "This unprecedented new effort will ensure Democrats have a seat at the table to create fairer maps after 2020."
Part of the NDRC's strategy is electing Democrats to the offices that control redistricting. The group is targeting states where it sees opportunities to shift control of the redistricting process, either breaking an existing Republican state trifecta, preventing a potential GOP trifecta from forming, or picking up a Democratic trifecta.
Six of the group's target states and six of its watch states are Republican trifectas. Among the eight other states on the NDRC radar, some have ballot measures that would change the redistricting process while others have divided government, offering a potential Democratic or GOP trifecta. Republicans currently hold 26 trifectas nationwide. Democrats have eight.
What we're reading
- “Dems Want to Win in 2018. They Shouldn't.” (Real Clear Politics)
- “Democrats' 'Resistance' to Trump Is Eroding, and So Are Their Poll Numbers” (The Atlantic)
- “Why Pelosi Is Rolling the Dice for Dreamers” (Bloomberg)
- “PA-18 Special Election a Key Test for Dems' Labor Support” (Real Clear Politics)
