Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 6 (February 19, 2018)
This week: Progressives making moves, more polls, more endorsements -- the Democratic primaries are heating up. Can’t get enough primary news? We’re covering the Republican races, too (click here to subscribe). Have a tip or see something we missed? Drop us a line at editor@ballotpedia.org. And feel free to share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC)
Passed filing deadlines: 7
Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,201 Democrats, 872 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“By focusing exclusively on the Dreamers and offering no practical limits on immigration, much less any border security, the Democrats are in the process of writing their own political obituary for November and beyond.”
- Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein, The Hill, Feb. 14, 2018
“This means that not only is it morally just for Democrats to position themselves as the party that stands against hatred and bigotry and in favor of inclusiveness and opportunity, but it is also a strategically sound position for winning votes.”
- Matt Barreto, The New York Times, Feb. 11, 2018
Local politics
Exploring the moderate versus progressive conflict in San Francisco
San Francisco voters will settle what local media describes as a contest between progressive and moderate factions for control of the Board of Supervisors.
Each faction currently controls five of the board’s 11 seats. District 2 supervisor Catherine Stefani, sometimes identified as a moderate, maintains ties with both sides.
The first test comes in a June 5 special election between District 8 candidates Jeff Sheehy, a moderate appointed to the seat in January 2017 after former supervisor Scott Wiener was elected to the state Senate, and Rafael Mandelman, a progressive. A Mandelman win will give progressives an outright majority on the board.
It may be temporary, however, as regular elections for five of the board’s 11 seats will be decided in November.
Voters will also choose a successor to fill the remaining two years in Ed Lee’s mayoral term (pictured left). Lee died of a heart attack in December. Mark Farrell is the city’s interim mayor.
Ballotpedia asked candidates running for the board and mayor whether they identify with the moderate or progressive camps, and how they'd explain differences between the two:
District 4 candidate Adam Kim (identifies as a progressive):
“While City Hall is unified in opposing the far-right conservatives...moderates and progressives tend to disagree on where they stand on the economy. Moderates often have another name in San Francisco - corporatists - and not without cause.”
“Probably everyone agrees that the biggest issue in San Francisco is the skyrocketing housing costs...The progressive approach is focused particularly on developing as much affordable housing as possible, 100% of all new housing…”
District 6 candidate Sonja Trauss (identifies as a moderate):
“Where I came from I was quite radical, but here in San Francisco I am delighted to be considered a moderate.”
“...moderates are for building housing and transportation, and the progressives, ironically, are conservative on those issues. Look at who is for or against any given transportation project or housing development. You will generally find progressives in favor of the status quo.”
“Progressives were against the soda tax, moderates were for it. Progressives were for the moratorium on housing in the Mission, moderates were against it. Everyone is for Safe Injection Sites.”
Mayoral candidate Michelle Bravo (identifies as a progressive):
“Moderates tend to be beholden to a more conservative agenda, think liberal Republicans... they support dangerous police weapons like Tasers, they support a paid parental leave mandate that can actually hurt small business owners in San Francisco, they support no-tax for large tech companies like Twitter and no small business taxes for Uber and Lyft…”
District 6 candidate Jason Jones:
"In San Francisco, 'moderate and 'progressive' seem, as best I can tell, buzzwords defining only your position on the issue of housing. It seems wholly disconnected from any other policy view…[For my views] I think it best instead just to stick with ‘liberal’ and keep those buzzwords out of it.”
U.S. Congress
U.S. House
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 50
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Labor picks de León over Feinstein in California Senate race
The California Service Employees International Union and California Nurses Association endorsed state Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de León (D) over incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in the California Senate race.
California Democrats decide which, if any, candidate they will endorse at their Feb. 23 state convention.
Pressley has Boston advantage in MA-07
A WBUR poll showed incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) leading Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D) 47 percent to 35 percent in the Massachusetts 7th Congressional District Democratic primary. In Boston, which makes up two-thirds of the seat, Pressley leads Capuano 46 percent to 35 percent.
The 7th is the state's only majority-minority district and pollster Steve Koczela said race could be a factor in the contest.
"It’s almost a mirror opposite, with 63% of white voters saying they’re supporting Capuano, and 64% of black voters saying they’re supporting Ayanna Pressley,” Koczela said.
“So whatever voters are telling you about how they’re making their decision, I think there's some evidence that [race] is playing a role."
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Citing coalescing Republican field, Pillich withdraws from Ohio race
Former state Rep. Connie Pillich (D) suspended her campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Pillich urged Democrats to unite behind former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray (D), citing the Ohio GOP’s endorsement of Attorney General Mike DeWine (R).
"As the GOP rallies around Mike DeWine and promises more of the destructive policies that have put our state into the careless situation it is now,” Pillich said, “it is time to come together."
Seven candidates remain in the May 8 Democratic primary, which is open to all registered voters.
Ohio Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/16
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 9/33
- Seats held in state House: 33/99
SEIU endorses Newsom
The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) endorsed California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) Tuesday. The SEIU said it would focus its efforts on the Los Angeles area.
A December University of California at Berkeley poll found former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) leading Newsom 31-20 among likely voters in Los Angeles County. Newsom led Villaraigosa 26-17 statewide.
Newsom and Villaraigosa are among the 12 Democratic candidates seeking the nomination. The June 5 top two primary will feature all candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation. The top two finishers advance to the November general election.
California Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 39/53
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 7/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 27/40
- Seats held in state Assembly: 52/80
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 seats in state legislatures during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 27.5 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 3.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 46.6 percent.
Sanders versus Clinton divide emerges in key Texas Senate primary
The Democratic primary for Texas State Senate District 10 features a matchup between Beverly Powell, who backed Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, and Allison Campolo, a supporter of Bernie Sanders.
Their campaign styles mirror their presidential preferences. Powell is attempting to woo independents and moderate Republicans, while Campolo emphasizes her support for more government involvement in health care and her opposition to large campaign donors.
The winner will face the Senate’s most vulnerable Republican incumbent, Konni Burton (pictured left). Burton was first elected in 2014, replacing state Sen. Wendy Davis (D), who ran for governor. Donald Trump won the Dallas-based district by less than one point in 2016.
Is the Republican really a Democrat in New York Assembly special election?
Buffalo school teacher Erik Bohen received the Republican nomination for New York Assembly District 142 Feb. 13 after incumbent Mickey Kearns (D) left to be a county clerk. Bohen, however, is a registered Democrat and earlier sought the Democratic nomination, losing out to Erie County legislator Pat Burke. The two will face off in a special election April 24.
It’s not the first time voters have had to sort out fluid party identifications. Kearns lost the Democratic nomination in a 2012 special election. Kearns then ran, and won, on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets, though he caucused with Assembly Democrats.
Republican Carl Paladino (pictured left), a member of the Buffalo Board of Education and a 2010 gubernatorial candidate, supports Bohen and formerly backed Kearns. Both Bohen and Burke have support from union groups.
New York primaries likely on a Thursday due to conflict with Jewish New Year and 9/11
The New York State Legislature approved a bill moving the 2018 primaries for state offices from Sept. 11 to Sept. 13. September 11 is both the final day of Rosh Hashanah and Patriot Day, which recognizes the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has not objected to the bill. The primaries for federal offices are June 26.
Massachusetts earlier moved its primary from Sept. 18 to Sept. 4 due to conflict with Yom Kippur.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
California Nurses Association
“Nurses have watched our patients suffer and die for far too long, and that’s why we are unrelenting in our demand for guaranteed health care. We expect our elected officials to work on the bill, not breach the public’s trust by halting the normal legislative process or waste time.” -Bonnie Castillo, California Nurses Association Associate executive director
According to its website, the California Nurses Association (CNA)—an affiliate of National Nurses United (NNU)—has “attracted national renown as a leading advocate of guaranteed health care by expanding and updating Medicare to cover all Americans.” After sponsoring a single-payer health care bill (SB 562) in 2017 that lost momentum, the association has focused its efforts on the 2018 primaries in California.
This week, the union threw its support behind state Sen. Kevin de León’s (D) challenge of Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate race, citing his support for a single-payer system.
“At a time when 15 million Californians still have no health coverage, or pay for premiums and still can’t afford to get the medical care they need, Kevin de León demonstrated outstanding political courage and leadership in shepherding passage of SB 562,” said Malinda Markowitz, co-president of the NNU/CNA.
The CNA has also backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom in the governor’s race and opened an independent expenditure committee for his campaign in January. Newsom endorsed the CNA’s single-payer health care bill in 2017. The CNA has also endorsed 10 candidates in California’s June 5 congressional primary.
What we're reading
- “Joe Manchin’s Growing Peril” (National Journal)
- “Midterm Limits: Why Democrats Shouldn’t Get Too Confident About November” (Politico)
- “The Democrats' biggest liability wears 4-inch heels” (Washington Examiner)
- “Inside the Two Years that Shook Facebook—And the World” (Wired)
