Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 7 (February 26, 2018)

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Issue No. 7

This week in Democratic primary news: Big surprises in California and Texas, plus #MeToo changes the political landscape. Can’t get enough primary coverage? Click here to follow the action on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

• Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC), March 1 (MS, AR, NE)
• Passed filing deadlines: 7
• Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
• Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,203 Democrats, 880 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.

“Most indications are that the energy among Democrats — the turnout and the volunteering — will sustain itself through 2018, especially since Trump shows no signs of curbing his vileness and depravity.” - Greg Sargent, The Washington Post, Feb. 21, 2018

“Now many Democrats say they’re watching nervously as polls start to trend in Republicans’ favor — and worry they’re witnessing the beginning of a slow-motion train wreck that they have no idea how to stop.” - Heather Caygle, Politico, Feb. 20, 2018

U.S. Congress

U.S. House

• Democratic seats heading into November: 193
• Republican seats heading into November: 238
• Vacant seats: 4
• Open seats: 51
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12

U.S. Senate

• Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
• Republican seats heading into November: 51
• Open seats: 3
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10

California Democratic Party declines to endorse Senate candidate, de León receives majority of votes

The California Democratic Party declined to endorse incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) or state Sen. Kevin de León (D) for the U.S. Senate in California at its state convention. De León received more votes than Feinstein—54 percent to 37 percent—but failed to reached the 60 percent threshold for an endorsement.

Ballotpedia asked regional party leaders what the race means for Democrats across the country.

Dave Atkins of Region 10 said the contest had national implications.

“[Like] the Connecticut Senate primary in 2006 between Lamont and Lieberman, this race will be seen as a bellwether for the power of a younger, less white and more progressive Democratic left, and its ability to challenge a more moderate/centrist old guard,” Atkins said.

“If De León comes within striking distance during the primary against an icon like Feinstein,” he added, “it will send shockwaves through the Party about what its base expects from its legislators in DC.”

Bill Monroe of Region 1E saw the race as a localized contest between an increasingly “centrist” incumbent and a candidate with a “fresh view.”

“This is more of a referendum regarding Dianne Feinstein, than anything having to do with national politics,” Monroe said.

DCCC turns on Moser in TX-07

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released opposition research against an unlikely target in Texas’ 7th Congressional District primary Thursday: progressive activist Laura Moser (D).

“Unfortunately, Laura Moser’s outright disgust for life in Texas disqualifies her as a general election candidate, and would rob voters of their opportunity to flip Texas’ 7th in November,” said DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly.

Moser told the Washington Post’s Dave Weigel the DCCC’s move boosted her fundraising.

“Before we’d sent out a fundraising email about this — I think we sent it at 5 p.m., my time — we’d raised $20,000. Now it’s a donation every second,” Moser said.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Moser raised $215,000, trailing nonprofit executive Alex Triantaphyllis (D) who raised $259,000.

National and local Democrats split in TX-09

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed businessman Tahir Javed (D) in Texas' 29th Congressional District Wednesday. "His record as a job creator, health care executive, and teacher give him the perfect mix of skills and experience to serve the district and Texas," Schumer said.

State Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) has local endorsements on her side, including retiring incumbent Rep. Gene Green (D-Texas), the Harris County Tejano Democrats, and The Houston Chronicle.

University of Houston associate professor Brandon Rottinghaus said The 77 percent Hispanic-majority district will be “won by a Latino one way or another.”

“It is kind of a black eye for the city and the county that the number of elected Latinos is fairly low compared to other places to where there are a similar number of voting age Latinos,” Rottinghaus said.

Governors

Governors: key information
Open seats	17
Open seats held by a Democrat	4
Open seats held by a Republican	13
States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton	8
States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump	1

Disqualified over signatures, Heavey promises legal fight to make Ohio ballot

Physician Jonathan Heavey (D) was disqualified from the Ohio gubernatorial election Wednesday, as County election boards were only able to verify 854 of the 2,173 signatures he filed with his nominating papers.

Candidates must file at least 1,000 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Heavey intends to pursue legal action, claiming that most of the signatures were invalidated because they were illegible. He says they are legible.

Ballot Access News editor Richard Winger told Ballotpedia "For getting on primary ballots, the number of signatures Ohio requires is typical. But for some reason, Ohio petition validation rates are always low, compared to other states, whether it is independent candidates, petitions for a new party, or initiative petitions.”

“That is one reason why the pending U.S. Supreme Court case Husted v Ohio A. Philip Randolph Institute is important for ballot access as well as for voter rights," Winger said.

Six candidates have qualified for the in the May 8 primary.

Ohio Democrats party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 4/16
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
• Seats held in state Senate: 9/33
• Seats held in state House: 33/99

Biss, Pritzker exchange charges over Madigan influence

State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) clashed with primary frontrunner J.B. Pritzker (D) at a debate Wednesday over a growing sexual harassment story involving two staffers associated with long-time House Speaker Michael Madigan (D) (for more on those allegations, see the “Legislatures” section below).

Biss criticized Pritzker for his perceived close relationship to Madigan, saying it took Pritzker “a week to get permission from Mike Madigan to even name him in talking about the sexual harassment coverup.”

“There’s a Pritzker-Madigan wing of the Democratic Party and there’s the progressive wing of the Democratic Party that I’m a part of,” Biss said.

Pritzker said Biss had accepted donations from Madigan during previous political campaigns and called for an independent investigation into the accusations.

Biss and Pritzker are among six Democratic candidates in the March 20 primary. The primary is open to all registered voters regardless of party affiliation.

Illinois Democrats party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 11/18
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
• Seats held in state Senate: 37/59
• Seats held in state House: 67/118

Dallet and Screnock advance, Burns out, in Wisconsin Supreme Court race

Attorney Tim Burns was eliminated Tuesday in the first round of voting for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Burns placed third with 18 percent of the vote to Judge Rebecca Dallet's 36 percent. Judge Michael Screnock's finished first with 46 percent.

Burns and Dallet were the two liberal-aligned candidates to file for the seat. Screnock is aligned with the Court's conservative majority.

Burns' campaign drew national attention after he said "a non-partisan judiciary is a fairy tale, and it always has been" and explicitly ran as a Democrat. Dallet stressed her judicial experience.

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel columnist Daniel Bice said the results indicate "Democrats apparently aren't ready to support someone who ditches any pretense that our courts should be nonpartisan arbiters of justice."

Wisconsin Democrats party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 3/8
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
• Seats held in state Senate: 14/33
• Seats held in state Assembly: 35/99

Legislatures

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

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Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 47.6 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 29.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 45.5 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 78.2 percent.

Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016

#MeToo is changing the power balance in state legislatures

#MeToo moments arising from sexual misconduct allegations are shaking up Democratic caucuses in state legislatures. Here’s what happened this week.

Democrat Linda Belcher won a special election for Kentucky House District 49, a seat left open after the suicide of incumbent Republican Dan Johnson. Johnson was accused of molesting a 17-year old girl. Belcher held the seat before narrowly losing it to Johnson in 2016. Belcher defeated Johnson’s widow in the special election. Republicans took control of the Kentucky House in the 2016 elections.

California state Sen. Tony Mendoza resigned after an investigatory report found that he likely in engaged in sexual misconduct. Mendoza said he was denied due process and that Senate Pro Tempore Kevin de León forced him out in order to appease Democratic activists in his run for Dianne Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat.

Former staffer David John Kernick filed a formal complaint against California Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia for allegedly creating a toxic work environment. Garcia, who earlier appeared in Time magazine for her leadership role in the #MeToo movement, has faced multiple complaints of sexual harassment since Feb. 15 and is on a leave of absence from the Assembly.

Long-time Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is facing calls to resign as both state party chairman and speaker after reports that two of his political operatives had engaged in sexual harassment. Both men were fired, but Madigan’s critics have called for an independent investigation into his response to the allegations. With a number of Madigan critics challenging his allies in the March 20 Democratic primaries for governor, Congress, and local positions, his political future may be in jeopardy.

Democratic primary to watch: Texas House District 47

Five Democrats are vying to take on state Rep. Paul Workman (R) in Austin-based District 47. According to the Texas Tribune, Elaina Fowler and Vikki Goodwin (pictured left) are the frontrunners.

Workman is considered vulnerable in the general election. Donald Trump carried the 47th District by just 0.2 points in 2016. Workman won re-election with 53.6 percent of the vote.

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Giffords PAC

“We need more leaders in Congress with the courage to stand up to the gun lobby and take action to save lives from gun violence. Military veterans are some of our nation’s foremost experts on guns. They know it’s important to work together to protect both our rights and the security of our communities…” -Captain Mark Kelly, co-founder of Giffords PAC

Founded in 2011 by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband Mark Kelly after she was severely wounded and at an event at which six others were killed, Giffords PAC’s mission is to save lives from gun violence.

On Feb. 19, the group launched what Giffords called “a strong six figures” ad campaign against Florida Gov. Rick Scott in the wake of the Florida school shooting Feb. 14.

The ad charges that “Scott made it illegal for a doctor to ask a patient if they owned a gun, even a mental health professional,” and urged Scott to “stop putting the gun lobby ahead of our safety.”

In what the New York Times called “the most significant move toward gun control in Florida in decades,” Scott proposed a number of new gun control measures Friday, including one he says would make it “virtually impossible for anyone who has mental issues to use a gun.”

Scott is term limited as governor, but may be considering a challenge to Sen. Bill Nelson (D).

The PAC has waded into a number of U.S. House primaries, most recently backing Hiral Tipirneni in the special election for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. The group has also backed Gil Cisneros in California’s 39th Congressional District, Jason Crow in Colorado’s 6th, and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s 11th.

What we’re reading

• “Gun Politics Stir Up Florida Midterm Races” (Politico)
• “Pennsylvania Is Now the Key to a Democratic House” (Bloomberg)
• “Soaring economic optimism could torpedo Dems' 'blue wave' midterms” (The Hill)
• “Democrats will lose this fall by fighting over immigration now” (The Hill)