Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 7 (February 26, 2018)
This week in Republican primary news: Arizona’s 8th Congressional District steps into the national spotlight Tuesday, and we’re counting down to the big Texas showdown March 6. Want even more primary coverage? Click here to follow the action on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC), March 1 (MS, AR, NE)
Passed filing deadlines: 7
Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,203 Democrats, 880 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“But it is true that Buckley’s present influence on one of the institutions he helped build is nil, because the conservative movement is no more. Its destroyers are Donald Trump and his admirers.” - Richard Brookhiser, National Review, Feb. 16, 2018
“He has positioned himself, as Churchill did, as a modern tribune of the people—standing in the elite halls, but against the easy consensus of the elites. Whether the Churchillian Mr. Trump will prevail, where even Mr. Churchill could not, will be for the people to decide.” - Augustus Howard, Real Clear Politics, Feb. 21, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Vacant seats: 4
- Open seats: 51
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Election Day in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District
Voters head to the polls Tuesday in Republican primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Thirteen candidates are on the ballot, but the top contenders are former state legislators Debbie Lesko (R), Steve Montenegro (R), Phil Lovas(R), and Bob Stump (R).
Montenegro won early endorsements from Franks, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R). Lesko received congressional endorsements from House Freedom Caucus members Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Mark Meadows (R-N.C.). A January OH Predictive Insights poll showed Lesko and Montenegro tied at 21 percent each.
Two of the contenders have faced controversy in the run-up to Tuesday’s election.
Montenegro admitted to exchanging text messages with a female staffer, including receiving a topless photo from her. Lesko was accused of improperly transfering $50,000 to her campaign. Whether these stories affect the race’s outcome is uncertain. More than 73,000 ballots, roughly two-thirds of the expected total, have already been cast.
Republicans seeking candidate to animate NJ-02 race
The Republican contest to replace retiring Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District lacks a competitive Republican candidate. No Republican reported raising money in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Cumberland County Republican chairman Michael Testa said former state Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi (R) was interested. “There’s been a lot of interest from people who have never run before; I’m not exactly sure why that is, but it’s a really good thing. I will say that Sen. Van Drew is a very formidable opponent,” Testa said.
Although President Donald Trump (R) took this district by five points in 2016, Cook Political Report shifted this race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic two weeks ago.
Rooney (R) becomes 51st member of Congress to not seek re-election
Rep. Thomas Rooney (R) announced Monday he would retire from the Florida 17th Congressional District seat he won by 28 percentage points in 2016. Rooney is the 51st member of the U.S. House and 35th Republican not seeking re-election.
Possible contenders for the seat include state Sens. Lizbeth Benacquisto (R) and Greg Steube (R), as well as state Reps. Ben Albritton (R), Julio Gonzalez (R), and Joe Gruters (R). Sarasota County Commissioner Nancy Detert (R) may also run.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Hartman suspends campaign, endorses Kobach
Businessman Wink Hartman (R) suspended his campaign for governor of Kansas Wednesday and endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R). Hartman said an earlier candidate debate inspired his move.
“I listened to the other candidates and I quickly came to the conclusion that I could be the spoiler in this race for the conservative values we hold so dear,” Hartman said.
The Wichita Eagle quoted two anonymous sources saying Hartman would join the Kobach campaign as his running mate.
Eleven candidates will appear on the Aug. 7 primary ballot. The filing deadline is June 1. The primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Kansas Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 10/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/4
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 31/40
- Seats held in state House: 85/125
Massachusetts GOP moves closer to formally endorsing Baker
The Republican Party of Massachusetts executive committee voted Tuesday in favor of lending organizational support to Gov. Charlie Baker (R) in his re-election bid.
The committee said it based its decision on statements Baker challenger Scott Lively (R) made regarding LGBT individuals.
Lively alleged the party was quietly backing Baker, in violating of its bylaws. Party rules require a two-thirds vote of the executive committee to authorize support for a particular candidate’s campaign.
House Minority Leader Bradley Jones (R) called for the committee vote following Lively’s charges.
Baker and Lively are currently the only candidate in the Sept. 4 primary. The filing deadline is June 5. The primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Massachusetts Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 2/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 0/9
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 7/40
- Seats held in state House: 34/160
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 25.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 77.6 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 38.9 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 36.7 percent.
Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Countdown to the Texas Republican primaries
Here’s what you need to know about the March 6 Texas GOP primaries.
Remember: The key matchup in these primaries is between Republicans allied with outgoing House Speaker Joe Straus (R) and Republicans opposed to his leadership and policy preferences on issues like education and property taxes. The pro-Straus group includes public education advocacy groups and the Texas Association of Business, while the anti-Straus group includes members of the Texas Freedom Caucus and the group Empower Texans.
The chart below shows the pro- and anti-Straus incumbents running in competitive primaries March 6.
Senate District 30
Veteran Sen.Craig Estes (pictured left) is one of the few remaining Republican senators who sometimes aligns with pro-Straus forces instead of Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick (R) and his anti-Straus allies.
His challenger for this North Texas seat is anti-Straus state Rep. Pat Fallon (pictured right). Fallon has self-funded much of his campaign and gathered key endorsements from anti-Straus groups like Empower Texans and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. While Lt. Gov. Patrick has not endorsed Fallon, he did spend $17,000 on polling for Fallon’s campaign. The race has sometimes gotten contentious. Estes recently aired an ad that portrayed Fallon, a Catholic, giving a mock confession to a priest. Both Fallon and state Rep. Drew Springer (R), who hasn’t endorse either candidate, said the ad was inappropriate. Estes said a devout Catholic produced the ad and it was intended to be lighthearted.
House District 122
State Rep. Lyle Larson (pictured left), a childhood friend and strong ally of Speaker Straus, has represented the San-Antonio-based District 122 since 2010. He faces Hollywood Park Mayor Chris Fails (pictured right), who has the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott and anti-Straus groups like Empower Texans.
Larson has been an Abbott target ever since he criticized the Governor on ethics-related legislation in 2017. Abbott dubbed Larson “Liberal Lyle” and is running campaign ads against him.
"I voted for 100% of the governor’s legislative priorities and yet he’s calling me a liberal,” Larson said. “What does that make the governor?”
“Let’s be clear: [Abbott is] attacking me because I passed legislation saying we should eliminate pay-to-play for gubernatorial appointments,” Lason said.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Greg Abbott
"Now there's nothing wrong with Sarah Davis running for state representative as long as she is honest with people in her district — telling people that she is the Democrat that she votes to be...The Republican primary, the people of [House District] 134 deserve a Republican running on that ballot." -Greg Abbott
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has backed primary challengers to Republican state Reps. Sarah Davis, Wayne Faircloth, and Lyle Larson. Abbott ran a TV ad in Larson’s district that called the incumbent “Liberal Lyle.” Abbott also spent $161,000 on advertising in Davis' district, including an ad opposing her.
Larson told the Texas Tribune Abbot’s targets all supported Larson’s proposed ban on gubernatorial appointments of donors to state boards and commissions. Larson’s bill would have banned those who donated $2,500 or more to a governor’s campaign from receiving such appointments.
The Texas Tribune said Abbott’s involvement in the primaries is “remarkable,” and reflects Abbott’s “hunger for revenge after a special session last year that saw half his agenda stall in the House, where he had already been clashing with lawmakers like Davis and Larson over ethics reform.”
Abbott is running for re-election in 2018. He faces two challengers in the GOP primary.
What we’re reading
- “Gun Politics Stir Up Florida Midterm Races” (Politico)
- “Pennsylvania Is Now the Key to a Democratic House” (Bloomberg)
- “Soaring economic optimism could torpedo Dems' 'blue wave' midterms” (The Hill)
- “Trump, Twitter, and the GOP’s Improving Poll Numbers” (City Journal)
