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Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election (February 27, 2018 Republican primary)

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2018
2016
Arizona's 8th Congressional District special
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2018
Primary: February 27, 2018
General: April 24, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant

Election winner:
Debbie Lesko (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Former state legislator Debbie Lesko won Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election Republican primary with 36 percent support, defeating top challengers Steve Montenegro and Phil Lovas by 12 points each.[1]

The GOP primary in Arizona's 8th Congressional District would not normally generate much attention. But this safe Republican district, which backed the Republican presidential nominee by 20 points or more in the previous three election cycles, became a proxy contest between national Republicans looking to influence the party’s direction.

The seat opened after Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who represented the district for 14 years, resigned on December 8, 2017, following allegations of sexual misconduct.[2] Former legislators Debbie Lesko, Steve Montenegro, Phil Lovas, and Bob Stump were among the 12 Republican candidates seeking the nomination.[3][4] Montenegro had the backing of Franks, as well as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R). House Freedom Caucus members Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) endorsed Lesko.

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For coverage of the general election, click here.

Arizona voter? Here's what you need to know.
Registration DeadlineJanuary 29, 2018
Absentee Application DeadlineFebruary 16, 2018
Primary ElectionFebruary 27, 2018
Polling Times7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Primary TypeSemi-closed
General ElectionApril 24, 2018
ResultsArizona Secretary of State
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

The following candidates ran in the special Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on February 27, 2018.

Republican primary election

Special Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Debbie Lesko
Debbie Lesko Candidate Connection
 
35.4
 
27,047
Image of Phil Lovas
Phil Lovas
 
24.3
 
18,562
Image of Steve Montenegro
Steve Montenegro
 
23.7
 
18,106
Image of Bob Stump
Bob Stump
 
5.3
 
4,032
Image of Clair Van Steenwyk
Clair Van Steenwyk
 
2.3
 
1,787
Image of Christopher Sylvester
Christopher Sylvester
 
1.9
 
1,490
Image of David Lien
David Lien
 
1.8
 
1,341
Image of Richard Mack
Richard Mack
 
1.6
 
1,191
Image of Mark Yates
Mark Yates
 
1.1
 
871
Chad Allen
 
1.1
 
824
Image of Brenden Dilley
Brenden Dilley
 
1.1
 
823
Stephen Dolgos
 
0.5
 
377
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
8

Total votes: 76,459
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

The candidates below had either led in polls, received support from U.S. elected officials, or were mentioned by media coverage as top contenders. They are listed in alphabetical order.

Republican Party Debbie Lesko (R)

Debbie Lesko.gif

Lesko is a former member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 21 from 2015 to 2018. She served as president pro tempore from 2017 to 2018, before resigning her seat on January 8, 2018, to focus on her U.S. House campaign. She also served in the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 21 from 2009 to 2015. She is Arizona state chairman for ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council).[5][6]

"I have a track record of taking on big, important issues that other people won't take on and getting them done. None of the other candidates can say they have that track record," she said when announcing her candidacy.[7] She was endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List.

Investing in national security initiatives, including a missile defense system, protecting border security through some physical barriers and improved technology, and simplifying the tax code were listed as policy priorities on her campaign website.[8]

Republican Party Phil Lovas (R)

Phil Lovas.jpg

Lovas previously served in the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 22 from 2012 to 2017. He resigned on April 17, 2017, to take a position with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy.[9]

"I’m running to improve the lives of West Valley citizens. I stood up early for Donald Trump as his chairman in AZ and now I want to stand with President Trump and implement his plan to improve the lives of all Americans," Lovas said when he announced his candidacy on December 13, 2017.[10] He was endorsed by Jeff DeWit (R), the treasurer of Arizona and former COO of the Trump presidential campaign.

On his campaign website, Lovas listed cutting taxes, reducing government regulations, and strengthening immigration laws as legislative priorities.[11]

Republican Party Steve Montenegro (R)

Steve Montenegro portrait.gif

Montenegro previously served in the Arizona State Senate and the Arizona House of Representatives from 2009 to 2017. He said in a video announcing his candidacy that incumbent Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) asked him to run for the seat.[12]

Other Republicans have endorsed Montenegro, including former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

On his campaign website, Montenegro listed supporting the Trump administration's policy agenda, opposition to amnesty, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and the defense of First and Second Amendment rights as policy priorities.[13]

Republican Party Bob Stump (R)

Bob Stump.jpg

Stump is a former member and chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, the state body charged with regulating the state's utility companies. He was elected to the post in 2008 and 2012. He also represented District 9 in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2002-2008.

Policy priorities for Stump, according to his website, included setting congressional term limits, securing the electric power sector, support for Israel, and reducing regulation on domestic energy production.[14]

Republican Party factional conflict

See also: Republican Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between potential members of the House Freedom Caucus and other members of the Republican Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

In 2015, conservative Republicans formed the Freedom Caucus and began opposing House Republican leaders on fiscal policy, chamber procedures, and caucus leadership, among other things.[15] Members of the Freedom Caucus broke away from the Republican Study Committee, which, along with the Republican Main Street Partnership, was more closely aligned with House Republican leaders.[16]

In this primary, Debbie Lesko affiliated with the Freedom Caucus.[17][18]

The chart below shows a scorecard for how the Freedom Caucus performed in competitive Republican primaries that featured at least one Freedom Caucus candidate and one Republican opponent not affiliated with the group.

U.S. House Republican factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018 Seats held prior to primaries Performance
Affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus 8 6 +2
Not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus[19] 10 12 -2


Election updates

  • February 22, 2018: Montenegro said he had exchanged text messages with a female staffer, including receiving a topless photo from her, but maintained that he had done nothing inappropriate.[20]
  • February 21, 2018: Lesko was accused of improperly moving $50,000 from her state Senate campaign to a federal PAC supporting her run. "This is an illegal money-laundering scheme. They're clearly in violation of the law. They knew 70 percent of the vote would be in by the time this comes out. ... I think it's clear that there's coordination," Lovas said. Tim Sifert, who created the PAC, said it was in compliance with the FEC.[21]
  • February 16, 2018: Ballots from overseas military voters received 10 days late will be accepted following an agreement between the Justice Department and Arizona to comply with a federal law requiring military ballots be mailed 45 days before the election.[22]
  • February 6, 2018: House Freedom Caucus member Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) endorsed Lesko.[23]
  • February 5, 2018: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)'s super PAC, the Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC, spent $84,000 on media for Montenegro.[24]
  • February 5, 2018: OH Predictive Insights released a poll finding Montenegro and Lesko tied with 21 percent support each.[25]
  • January 24, 2018: Lesko, Lovas, Montenegro, Stump, and Van Steenwyk participated in a candidate forum, discussing border security and the Trump administration.[26]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election, Republican primary
Poll Debbie Lesko Bob StumpClint HickmanKimberly YeeSteve MontenegroPhil LovasOther/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
January 31, 2018
21%10%0%0%21%12%36%+/-4.9400
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
December 11, 2017
16%18%15%7%0%0%37%+/-4.9400
Data Orbital
December 9-11, 2017
15%10%9%7%4%2%54%+/-4.9400
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the candidates' websites, if available.

Republican Party Debbie Lesko

National Security I am committed to making sure our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have the best equipment in the world as we continue to win the war against ISIS. This means we must continue to protect the F-35 and Luke Air Force Base. We also need to continue investing in missile defense so that insane madmen like Kim Jung Un cannot threaten our country with nuclear attack. We must also expand Cyber Command to protect our infrastructure and we must ensure our intelligence assets have the tools they need to continue to defeat terrorists.

Border Security We must secure our border, period. Some sections need a physical barrier like the wall, and other parts require technology and more manpower. I am committed to working with President Trump to making this a reality.

Education I believe education is about empowering parents to make the right choices for their children and their families. That's why I believe the federal government needs to get out of the way of decisions made at the local level. I will support federal block grants back to states so that we in Arizona can continue to decide how best to spend our money - not bureaucrats in Washington.

Taxes and Regulations I have never seen a tax I didn't want to cut and have a proud record of voting for common sense tax reforms. The newly passed tax reform package from Congress doesn't go far enough. We need a reformed tax code that allows citizens to fill out their tax returns on a postcard. I will push for this tax simplification. We also have too many regulations that put the needs of special interests over common sense and I will work with the President to protect jobs and end the reign of bureaucratic controls through regulations.

National Debt President Obama was a tax-and-spend liberal and in his short reign he accumulated more debt than all previous Presidents combined. This is outrageous. In Congress I will fight for a balanced budget, to end budget gimmicks, and to rein in spending that both parties have let get out of control. If that means I have to tell Speaker Ryan no, then that's exactly what I will do. No more burdening the generations that come after us with massive debts. The time to tackle this is now.

Pro-Life & Pro-Family I'm so proud of my record in the legislature that upheld the sanctity of life and protected the unborn. I'm a strong believer that life begins at conception and we must protect the most vulnerable among us. Because of my strong pro-life record, I am the only CD8 candidate to be endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List, a important national pro-life organization and I have consistently been endorsed by Arizona Right to Life, have a 100% rating with the Center for Arizona Policy and been named "Friend of the Family" by the Arizona Family Project.

As your next representative in Congress, I will vigorously support the principles of life and vote to prohibit any federal funding for abortion or infanticide.

Second Amendment There is a reason why our Founding Fathers found it necessary to make the Second Amendment to our Constitution the right to keep and bear arms. This is a principle rooted in our Republic whereby we are a government of the people, by the people and for the people. But the right to own firearms is more than just a check on tyranny; it is a fundamental right that free citizens be allowed to protect and defend themselves. In the AZ legislature I have a strong track record of defending the 2nd amendment and protecting gun rights. I have consistently been endorsed by the NRA and I am a member of both the NRA and Arizona Citizens Defense League.

In Congress, I will continue to strongly support legislation that protects our Second Amendment and protects our citizens from reckless and irresponsible legislation that attempts to undermine this precious civil right.[27]

—Debbie Lesko for Congress[28]

Republican Party Steve Montenegro

The Trump Agenda Make America Great Again! We all know the slogan… Behind it is a simple philosophy that we need to return to proven truths about what works and what doesn’t work. We need to take the power away from the government and give it back to the people. We need to remember to care for the forgotten man, who works, produces, saves, and provides our country with its lifeblood, while largely being ignored by the media and those in power.

This won’t be easy. The people who have the power today will not give it up without a fight, and we have seen that they will lie, cheat, and steal to try and keep it. They want Trump to fail because they want his agenda to fail. We are running out of time to save our country. We must not lose this fight!

Immigration Much as our hearts might want to, we cannot take in everyone in the world who simply wants a better life. That is why America’s immigration policies must be designed with just one question in mind: What policy is in the best interests of America? The first steps to a sound immigration policy is to enforce our existing laws, build a real border wall, properly equip our U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel, and eliminate all of the magnets that encourage illegal aliens to risk their lives to come here. If you watch Fox News or CNN then you may have already seen me arguing against Amnesty. I remain opposed to Amnesty because it is an affront to those who have done things right already as well as those who are waiting to come here legally, and it only encourages more illegal immigration.

Repeal ObamaCare Too many politicians are talking about replacing ObamaCare and skipping the actual repeal of it. What they’re really talking about is modifying ObamaCare and that will never work. ObamaCare is rotten and must be pulled out by its roots, as soon as possible. No health care system is perfect, but the best system will be based on free-market solutions that empower consumers and doctors to make decisions that are best for them. That includes buying insurance across state lines, health savings accounts, and tort reform. ObamaCare is failing us here in Arizona. Insurers are leaving the state, costs are skyrocketing, care is suffering. The time to act is now.

Restoring our Constitutional Rights I’ve been a leader in Arizona’s fight to restore our Constitutional rights and I’ll continue that fight in Congress. Liberals are after our 1st Amendment rights when what we need as a country is a greater freedom of speech. Liberals are after our 2nd Amendment rights even as the need for self-defense is proven in headlines with tragic regularity. Liberals are after our privacy rights as they seek to expand government control over everything they can. Here in Arizona we have said no more and we have fought back. Nowhere are our victories more apparent than in how we respect the 2nd Amendment. I’m proud to have helped pass Constitutional Carry to give Arizona the best gun laws in the country. As your Congressman, I will defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic!

Economy/Jobs Liberals believe the government creates jobs. We know that’s a lie. The best we can hope for is a government that gets out of the way and allows the private sector and free markets to create jobs. So when liberals are in charge, they spend trillions to “stimulate” the economy while ignoring that the money they’re spending was pulled by brute force from the economy, or was borrowed, adding to the already suffocating debt our country carries. As a legislator, I have cut government spending and voted for policies to create a pro-job environment here in Arizona. The results? Our state is a national leader for job creation, we’re a top destination for employers leaving high-tax states like California, we’re a top state for new start-ups, and our economy is growing more diverse so we are less vulnerable to economic downturns.

Taxes/Regulations High taxes kills jobs and slow the economy. Excessive regulations do the same. That’s why here in Arizona we cut taxes and regulations. The problem is far worse in Washington D.C., where the regulatory complex employs tens of thousands of people who spend their time coming up with new ways to control our lives and punish behavior they do not approve of. The Trump Administration is serious about eliminating job-killing regulations and I look forward to joining that fight. I will also attack the tax code with the same energy I did in the Arizona Legislature.

National Security Eight years of Obama have emboldened our enemies, funded our enemies, and made our enemies stronger. Today, our world is an incredibly dangerous place as we deal with a nuclear North Korea, a resurgent Russia intent on reassembling the old Soviet Union, and an increasing aggressive China. Add to the mix the battle against radical Islam, ISIS, and other jihadists, and it is clear that we must rededicate ourselves to rebuilding a military largely hollowed out by the previous administration. Democrats hold military spending hostage, refusing to increase spending unless they are given an equal amount of pork spending. That is simply shameful. We cannot afford everything we are currently spending on, but we must prioritize the resources needed to maintain the world’s strongest fighting force. Freedom around the globe is at stake.

Veterans God bless the men and women who serve or have served our country. We owe them everything. So why are so many lacking basic care? We need to fix the VA, offer private-sector alternatives, provide early intervention to veterans dealing with mental health issues, and we need to also be ready to help the families of those who have served and who carry heavy burdens as a result. Some gave all, but they all gave their best. They deserve the same in return from us.

Social Security Congressman Trent Franks was the author of the Seniors Financial Security Act which is a commonsense proposal to end the practice of taxing social security income. Much as the estate tax is a tax on earnings you’ve already paid taxes on, being taxed on your Social Security benefits is another double tax, and it should be ended.

Protecting Life I have a 100% pro-life voting record and believe that Life was the first God-given right listed by our founders for a reason. Without a right to life itself, what value do the rest of our rights hold? As a State Legislator I wrote and passed the nation’s first ban on abortions performed for the purpose of race or sex selection, and I will always vote to protect children and their mothers from the devastation offered by our nation’s abortion mills. I will also vote to defund Planned Parenthood. No taxpayer money should be paid to organizations that fund or perform abortions.

Strong Families We don’t need to read the studies to know that strong families are in everyone’s best interests -- Best for our children, best for our communities, best for our nation. As a State Legislator I made sure that one of my litmus tests for bills we were considering was how it would effect Arizona families. As a Congressman I will do the same.

Energy & the Environment The Trump Administration is serious about energy independence for America, and I agree wholeheartedly. It is not just a national security issue but an economic one as well. Energy exports strengthen our hand in international relations and it creates hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs. Government must also be guided by real science and consider every energy resource available. Subsidizing or favoring fashionable technologies creates an unlevel playing field and cheats American taxpayers. Clean, abundant energy is not only a possibility, it is an inevitability if we are guided by sound policy.

Accountability/Transparency I wrote the bill to give Arizona taxpayers access to detailed information on how government spends their money because I know that accountability and transparency go hand in hand. I know that I am going to have to fight that fight all over again in Congress but I look forward to doing so. We face a massive national debt and part of that is because Congress is not properly accountable for how it spends our money. I will work to let sunlight into the process so that American taxpayers have the same access to data that Arizona taxpayers now have.

Defending the Electoral College Recently, some of my opponents have been telling people that I oppose the Electoral College or voted to eliminate the Electoral College. Both claims are false and utter nonsense. I remain a staunch supporter of the Electoral College as I do all parts of our Constitution, and any suggestion that I voted to eliminate the Electoral College can only come from someone who is ignorant of our Constitution. You can't vote to eliminate parts of the Constitution or liberals would have already gotten rid of most of it. I will always defend the Electoral College and the rest of our Constitution.[27]

—Steve Montenegro for Congress[29]

Republican Party Bob Stump

NATIONAL SECURITY

Stopping illegal immigration is critical to our national security. Bob took strong, principled stands to increase our border security during his years in the Arizona House of Representatives. Moreover, for nearly a decade, Bob has been a nationally-recognized leader in working to secure the electric power sector against terrorist attacks. Today, North Korea has the ability to destroy America’s electrical grid, with devastating consequences. Bob will work with Congressional leaders and the Administration to shore up America’s electricity infrastructure before disaster strikes. He will work with U.S. leadership and American allies to drive ISIS into the dustbin of history and ensure that Israel remains a shining outpost of democracy in the Middle East.

OVERZEALOUS REGULATION

For nearly 15 years, Bob has been on the front lines in Arizona, fighting an out-of-control EPA intent on raising your electric bill. He is a nationally-recognized leader on energy issues and fully supports President Trump’s efforts to produce more energy domestically — in other words, to put more dollars into American pockets. As Bob wrote in National Review last year, the President’s energy policies “should give conservatives reason to cheer.”

THE 'DEEP STATE'

The United States is facing resistance from unelected, unaccountable Washington bureaucrats who are determined, at every turn, to thwart conservative attempts at reform. Even many on the Left agree. A recent case in point: The Obama-appointed head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s efforts to undermine the President’s pick to lead the agency. To have duly-elected representatives of the American people impeded by an unelected Washington elite is contrary to democratic values. Bob will work to uproot an entrenched, reform-resisting Washington culture and put American taxpayers first.[27]

—Bob Stump for Congress[30]

January 24, 2018, candidate forum

Lesko, Lovas, Montenegro, Stump, and Van Steenwyk participated in a candidate forum on January 24, 2018, discussing border security and the Trump administration. The Arizona Republic highlighted the following policy stances:[26]

Immigration

  • Lesko: "Basically, I agree with President Trump's agenda. We need to build the wall, fund it at $18 billion. We need to add more border agents, which is another $8 billion. I think we should add 5,000 more agents."
  • Lovas: "It is time to build the wall. ... And when it comes to DACA, I oppose DACA. President Obama created DACA with the stroke of a pen and rewrote immigration law. ... The kids that I'm concerned about are kids like Kate Steinle, who was murdered by an illegal alien, Jamiel Shaw Jr., and Grant Ronnebeck."
  • Montenegro: Montenegro "called for constructing a border wall, ending 'chain migration' and implementing E-Verify," The Arizona Republic reported.
  • Stump: "DACA is misguided ... [I]t's bad policy to grant amnesty with those with low skills who break the law as teenagers. ... We need to get border security right first. I think we need to end chain migration. ... I think we need to do E-hires. I think we need a merit-based system to ensure that the immigrants that we do take in have skills and are willing to assimilate as well."

Endorsements

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for the top Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District.

Most recent endorsement: Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) endorsed Lesko on February 6, 2018.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Lesko Lovas Montenegro
Federal officials
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)[31] February 6, 2018
U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)[32] January 22, 2018
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)[33] January 19, 2018
U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa)[34] January 17, 2018
Former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.)[35] January 15, 2018
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.)[36] January 10, 2018
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)[37] December 28, 2017
U.S. Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.)[38] December 21, 2017
State officials
Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R)[39] January 30, 2018
Arizona Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R)[40] January 25, 2018
Local officials
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R)[38] December 21, 2017
Organizations
House Freedom Fund[41] January 31, 2018
Susan B. Anthony List[42] January 12, 2018
Newspapers
Arizona Republic[43] February 5, 2018

Campaign strategies and tactics

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Debbie Lesko

Support
"Build the Wall" - Lesko campaign ad, released January 24, 2018


Republican Party Phil Lovas

Support
"Phil Lovas for Congress" - Lovas campaign ad, released December 13, 2017


Republican Party Steve Montenegro

Support
"Meet Steve Montenegro" - Montenegro campaign ad, released January 23, 2018
"Limited Government/Constitution" - Montenegro campaign ad, released February 9, 2018
"Strong Conservative Record" - Montenegro campaign ad, released February 9, 2018


Noteworthy events

Allegations of sexual misconduct against Montenegro

See also: Sexual misconduct in American politics (2017-2018)

According to The Arizona Republic, in 2017, Montenegro allegedly exchanged flirtatious text messages with a state Senate staffer and received a topless photo from her. In these text messages, Montenegro allegedly encouraged the staffer to contact him by Snapchat and discussed Franks' resignation. "Yeah, you would never, ever have to worry about me. So I hope that puts you at some ease," the staffer responded.[44]

Montenegro admitted to exchanging the text messages, including receiving the topless photo from the staffer, but maintained that he had done nothing inappropriate on February 22, 2018.[20] Prior to that, Montenegro had called the story "false tabloid trash" on February 20, 2018. He said in a statement, "Tonight I saw a despicable example of the tabloid trash that conservatives around this country have to deal with on a regular basis. ... I am blessed with an amazing wife and marriage. The media wants to drag us down with just a week to go, but we are not going to dignify this false tabloid trash with any further response.”[44]

Political analysis of Republican primary outcome

After the election, journalists and political commentators discussed the race and the extent to which allegations of sexual misconduct against Montenegro resulted in Lesko's victory.

  • Arizona Capital Times, Katie Campbell: "Auto-dial polls put Montenegro within shouting distance of Lesko in the runup to the election, but Montenegro was derailed last week by the revelation that he had carried on intimate conversations via text with a Senate staffer while still in office last year. Among the suggestive messages he received were photos of the woman in “various states of undress,” according to a statement. Former Gov. Jan Brewer endorsed Lesko as did the influential House Freedom Caucus. The money followed as did the attacks on Montenegro’s campaign. Lesko and Montenegro dominated the conversation, exchanging fire only with each other and essentially ignoring the other candidates."[45]
  • Arizona Republic, Dan Nowicki: "Although much of the attention was focused on former Republican state Sen. Steve Montenegro of Goodyear and his texting scandal involving a state Senate staffer, early voting results suggest Lesko was the front-runner all along. Conventional wisdom said Montenegro was damaged by the scandal, but it was unclear how many ballots for him had been cast by mail early, prior to news of the scandal breaking. However, even the first batch of returns, based on the early ballots, showed Lesko with a comfortable lead."[46]
  • NBC News, Alex Seitz-Wald: "Republicans there rejected a front-runner who had been hit by scandal in the final days of the race to fill a seat vacated by a former congressman who had himself resigned in disgrace. ... The outcome will have some Arizona Republicans breathing easier, since they feared the possibility of a Democratic upset with a Roy Moore-like candidate on the ballot if Montenegro had won."[47]
  • Politico, Elena Schneider: "During the final week of the primary, a bombshell report of nude photos and text messages exchanged between Montenegro and a legislative staffer left GOP operatives worried that the seat would be at risk in the general election if Montenegro was elected. Lesko's victory gives Republicans an advantage for holding onto the suburban Phoenix seat, which backed Donald Trump by 21 points in 2016."[48]
  • RealClearPolitics, Bob Christie and Anita Snow: "The race had thought to have been a close one between Lesko and former state Sen. Steve Montenegro, a tea party favorite backed by Franks. But Montenegro acknowledged last week that a former Senate aide had sent him an unsolicited topless photo in a text. ... Corinne Clark, a retail worker from Surprise, Arizona, said she regretted casting her ballot for Montenegro in early voting, before the allegations about him surfaced.'Whether it’s true or not is hard to know,' Clark said. 'But my number one reason for voting for him was because he has Christian values, and it makes me mad that this has come up afterward.'"[49]
  • Washington Examiner, Daniel Chaitin: "Montenegro's political demise was solidified Tuesday when voters rejected the former Republican front-runner amid a texting scandal to replace disgraced former Rep. Trent Franks in Arizona's Eighth Congressional District. ... Lesko's rise was fueled by Montenegro hemorrhaging support from local conservative activists when the Arizona Republic published an expose one week ago on an alleged improper sexual relationship the married father had with a legislative aide while he was still a member of the state Senate. One of the most striking details in the report was the allegation that a topless photo was texted to Montenegro. Montenegro later told the Washington Examiner he never solicited the photo and accused his opponents of sabotaging his political career with 'revenge porn.'"[50]

Campaign finance

Satellite spending

  • Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)'s super PAC, the Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC, spent $84,000 on media for Montenegro in February 2018.[51][52]

Race ratings

Race ratings: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.


District election history

2016

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Mark Salazar (G) and write-in candidate Joe DeVivo (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Franks defeated Clair Van Steenwyk in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[53][54][55]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 68.5% 204,942
     Green Mark Salazar 31.4% 93,954
     N/A Write-in 0% 75
Total Votes 298,971
Source: Arizona Secretary of State


U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 71.1% 59,042
Clair Van Steenwyk 28.9% 24,042
Total Votes 83,084
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 8th Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Stephen Dolgos (Americans Elect) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 75.8% 128,710
     Americans Elect Stephen Dolgos 24.2% 41,066
Total Votes 169,776
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012

In 2012, District 2 incumbent Trent Franks (R) decided to run for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in the 8th District. He defeated Gene Scharer (D) and Stephen Dolgos (I) in the general election on November 6, 2012.[56]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 63.3% 172,809
     Democratic Gene Scharer 35.1% 95,635
     Americans Elect Stephen Dolgos 1.6% 4,347
Total Votes 272,791
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Jesse Kelly (R) and Steven Stoltz (L) in the general election.[57]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords incumbent 48.8% 138,280
     Republican Jesse Kelly 47.3% 134,124
     Libertarian Steven Stoltz 3.9% 11,174
Total Votes 283,578

2008

On November 4, 2008, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Tim Bee (R), Paul Davis (L) and Paul Price (Write-in) in the general election.[58]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords incumbent 54.7% 179,629
     Republican Tim Bee 42.8% 140,553
     Libertarian Paul Davis 2.5% 8,081
     Write-in Paul Price 0% 3
Total Votes 328,266

2006

On November 7, 2006, Gabrielle Giffords won election to the United States House. She defeated Randy Graf (R), David Nolan (L) and Jay Quick (I) in the general election.[59]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords 54.3% 137,655
     Republican Randy Graf 42.1% 106,790
     Libertarian David Nolan 1.9% 4,849
     Independent Jay Quick 1.7% 4,408
     N/A Write-in 0% 18
Total Votes 253,720

2004

On November 2, 2004, Jim Kolbe won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Eva Bacal (D) and Robert Anderson (L) in the general election.[60]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Kolbe incumbent 60.4% 183,363
     Democratic Eva Bacal 36.2% 109,963
     Libertarian Robert Anderson 3.4% 10,443
Total Votes 303,769

2002

On November 5, 2002, Jim Kolbe won election to the United States House. He defeated Mary Judge Ryan (D), Joe Duarte (L), and Jim Dorrance (write-in) in the general election.[61]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Kolbe 63.3% 126,930
     Democratic Mary Judge Ryan 33.6% 67,328
     Libertarian Joe Duarte 3.1% 6,142
     Write-in Jim Dorrance 0% 28
Total Votes 200,428

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[62][63]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[64][65]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also

Footnotes

  1. The New York Times, "Arizona Special Primary Election Results: Eighth House District," February 28, 2018
  2. Politico, "Franks to resign Friday after harassment allegations," December 8, 2017
  3. U.S. News & World Report, "13 Republicans, 3 Democrats File for Ex-US Rep. Franks Seat," January 10, 2018
  4. Daily Kos, "Presidential Election Results by District," accessed December 27, 2017
  5. ktar.com, "Debbie Lesko resigns from Arizona Senate to focus on Congress run," January 8, 2018
  6. alec.org, "State Chairmen," accessed April 7, 2014
  7. AZ Central, "Debbie Lesko is officially running for Congress for Trent Franks' seat," December 20, 2017
  8. Debbie Lesko for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed January 19, 2018
  9. Peoria Times, "Rep. Lovas resigns to take federal position," April 14, 2017
  10. Facebook, "Phil Lovas for Congress," December 13, 2017
  11. Lovas for Congress, "Home," accessed February 2, 2018
  12. AZ Central, "Díaz: Why does Steve Montenegro WANT Trent Franks' endorsement?" December 11, 2017
  13. Steve Montenegro, "Steve on the Issues," accessed January 19, 2018
  14. Bob Stump for Congress, "About," accessed January 19, 2018
  15. Pew Research Center, "What is the House Freedom Caucus, and who’s in it?" October 20, 2015
  16. Politico, "Conservatives split off from Republican Study Committee," January 13, 2015
  17. House Freedom Fund, "Endorsements," accessed May 15, 2018
  18. Some candidates were not formally endorsed by the caucus but said they would join if elected. See a list of all Freedom Caucus-affiliated candidates here.
  19. This includes all seats not held by members of the Freedom Caucus prior to the 2018 elections, including those held by Democrats.
  20. 20.0 20.1 AZCentral, "Steve Montenegro admits texts were his; staffer says exchanges were 'detailed and intimate'," February 22, 2018
  21. AZCentral, "Debbie Lesko accused of moving $50K from campaign to a PAC that backs ... Lesko," February 21, 2018
  22. 12 News, "Justice Department, Arizona, reach deal in special election to replace Trent Franks," February 16, 2018
  23. Twitter, "Brahm Resnik," February 6, 2018
  24. FEC, "Committee: JOBS, FREEDOM, AND SECURITY PAC," accessed February 14, 2018
  25. [https://www.scribd.com/document/370590501/AZ-08-OH-Predictive-Insights-Feb-2018#page=18?link_id=22&can_id=&source=email-morning-digest-nervous-gop-frets-about-a-repeat-of-alabama-in-potential-mississippi-senate-special Scribd, " AZ-08 GOP Special EV," accessed February 14, 2018]
  26. 26.0 26.1 Arizona Republic, "GOP Congress hopefuls try to outdo each other on border security, loyalty to Trump," January 25, 2018
  27. 27.0 27.1 27.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  28. Debbie Lesko for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed January 31, 2018
  29. Steve Montenegro for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed January 31, 2018
  30. Bob Stump for Congress, "Home," accessed February 14, 2018
  31. Twitter, "Brahm Resnik," February 6, 2018
  32. Twitter, "Debbie Lesko," January 22, 2018
  33. Twitter, "Debbie Lesko," January 19, 2018
  34. Twitter, "Steve Montenegro," January 17, 2018
  35. Steve Montenegro for Congress, "Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth Endorses Steve Montenegro for Congress," January 15, 2018
  36. Twitter, "Steve Montenegro," January 10, 2018
  37. Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz weighing in on races in Arizona and Montana," December 28, 2017
  38. 38.0 38.1 KTAR News 92.3 FM, "Trent Franks, Joe Arpaio endorse Arizona senator for Franks’ old seat," December 11, 2017
  39. Twitter, "Brahm Resnik," January 30, 2018
  40. YouTube, "Jeff DeWit, Vote for Phil," January 25, 2018
  41. House Freedom Fund, "AZ-08: Debbie Lesko for Congress," January 31, 2018
  42. SBA List, "National Pro-life Group SBA List Endorses Debbie Lesko in AZ-8," January 12, 2018
  43. Arizona Republic, "Our View: Debbie Lesko could get the most done in Congress," February 5, 2018
  44. 44.0 44.1 Arizona Republic, "Flirtatious texts, topless photo roil Steve Montenegro's campaign; he blasts 'false tabloid trash,'" February 20, 2018
  45. Arizona Capital Times, "Lesko wins CD8 GOP nomination," February 27, 2018
  46. Arizona Republic, "5 takeaways from the 8th District congressional primaries," February 28, 2018
  47. NBC News, "Arizona Republicans reject candidate tainted by text scandal," February 28, 2018
  48. Politico, "Candidate in sexting scandal loses Arizona primary," February 28, 2018
  49. RealClearPolitics, "Lesko Wins Republican Primary in Arizona's 8th District," February 28, 2018
  50. Washington Examiner, "Steve Montenegro can't shake texting scandal, loses GOP primary for Arizona US House seat," February 28, 2018
  51. Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Ann Wagner not ruling out Senate bid, but special election in her backyard's a worry," February 8, 2018
  52. FEC, "Independent Expenditures, Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC," accessed February 8, 2018
  53. Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
  54. Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
  55. CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  56. ABC News, "General Election Results 2012-Arizona," November 7, 2012
  57. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  58. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  59. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  60. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  61. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  62. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  63. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  64. Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  65. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)