United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7
- Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Alaska's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: June 1, 2018 |
| Primary: August 21, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Don Young (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Alaska |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
At-large Alaska elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Incumbent Don Young (R) defeated activist Alyse Galvin (D), Greg Fitch (I), and Sid Hill (I) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Alaska's At-Large Congressional District.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Young was first elected in a special election in 1973 and was re-elected in 2016 by a margin of 14 percentage points. That year, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 15 percentage points. Young, the longest serving member of the U.S. House at the time of the 2018 election, was the fourth member of the U.S. House to represent Alaska since it received statehood in 1959. Prior to Young's election, the seat was held for a partial term by Nick Begich (D), for two terms by Howard Pollock (R), and for four terms by Ralph Rivers (D).
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Alaska At-large District
Incumbent Don Young defeated Alyse Galvin in the general election for U.S. House Alaska At-large District on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Don Young (R) | 53.3 | 149,779 |
 | Alyse Galvin (D)  | 46.7 | 131,199 | |
| Total votes: 280,978 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Alaska At-large District
Alyse Galvin defeated Dimitri Shein, Carol Hafner, and Christopher Cumings in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Alaska At-large District on August 21, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Alyse Galvin | 53.6 | 21,742 |
 | Dimitri Shein | 23.3 | 9,434 | |
 | Carol Hafner | 15.0 | 6,071 | |
| Christopher Cumings | 8.1 | 3,304 | ||
| Total votes: 40,551 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Greg Fitch (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Alaska At-large District
Incumbent Don Young defeated Thomas Nelson and Jed Whittaker in the Republican primary for U.S. House Alaska At-large District on August 21, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Don Young | 70.8 | 49,667 |
| Thomas Nelson | 15.6 | 10,913 | ||
| Jed Whittaker | 13.6 | 9,525 | ||
| Total votes: 70,105 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Candidate profiles
Party: Republican
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. House of Representatives (Assumed office: 1973), Alaska State Senate (1970-1973), Alaska House of Representatives (1966-1970), Mayor of Fort Yukon, Alaska (1964-1966), Fort Yukon City Council (1960-1964)
Biography: Young received an associate degree from Yuba Junior College in California in 1952 and served in the U.S. Army for two years before receiving a bachelor's degree from California State University in 1958. He worked as a teacher and a riverboat captain before entering politics.
- Young said that he had a long record of success in the House, citing his role in the passage of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline in 1973, his co-authorship of the Magnusson-Stevens Act relating to fisheries in 1975, and a December 2015 Washington Post analysis naming him as among the 10 most effective members of the U.S. House. Young stated that he had passed more bills into law than any other member of Congress and that the majority of those bills were focused on policy issues relevant to Alaska.[1]
- Young said that he had amassed significant legislative experience during his time in Congress, pointing to his title as Dean of the U.S. House—granted to the longest-serving member of the House—and his status as chairman emeritus of the Transportation and Infrastructure and Natural Resources committees.[1]
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Galvin graduated from the University of California at San Diego with a degree in political science and government in 1989. She worked in a variety of roles, including as a daycare provider, director of entertainment for the Anchorage Downtown Market, and as a sales manager for the Anchorage Sheraton Hotel. Galvin worked in a liaison role in the state department of education before establishing an education consultancy in 2012 and Great Alaska Schools, an advocacy group, in 2014.
- Galvin said that she would "be a solutions-oriented, independent voice who fights for all Alaskans." She pointed to her history of working in a variety of jobs, her experience with Great Alaska Schools, and her status as a registered independent.[2][3][4]
- Galvin said that she would focus on job creation, expanding access to healthcare, and countering the opioid crisis if elected.[2][5]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Alyse Galvin |
Don Young | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Research Survey (October 26-29, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 48% | 3% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Lake Research Partners (October 13-16, 2018) | The Galvin campaign | 44% | 48% | 9% | +/--- | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research (October 12-14, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 49% | 4% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (October 11-12, 2018) | Tech Solidarity | 43% | 46% | 10% | +/-4.0 | 645 | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research (October 1-6, 2018) | N/A | 46% | 50% | 4% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 45.8% | 48.2% | 6% | +/-3.44 | 529 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Young | Republican Party | $1,234,680 | $1,387,687 | $116,720 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Alyse Galvin | Democratic Party | $1,949,644 | $1,943,399 | $6,245 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[6][7][8]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- The Congressional Leadership Fund announced on November 3, 2018, that it would conduct a get-out-the-vote phone campaign in support of Young through Election Day. The group stated it would spend six figures on the effort.[9]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]
| Race ratings: Alaska's At-large Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Alaska's at-large district the 143rd-most Republican district nationally.[14]
FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 1.16. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 1.16 points toward that party.[15]
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Don Young
Oppose
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Alyse Galvin
Support
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Debates and forums
- Young and Galvin participated in a debate hosted by Channel 2 News and Alaska Public Media. View a video of the event here.
- Young and Galvin met for a debate hosted by the Alaska Federation of Natives on October 19, 2018.[16] Click here for footage of the debate.
- Young and Galvin met for a debate hosted by the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce on September 17, 2018. Click here for coverage of the debate.
Campaign themes
Don Young
| “ |
In 2016, I was re-elected to the 115th Congress to serve my 23rd term as Alaska’s only Representative to the United States House of Representatives. My tenure in office has been driven by my deep love for Alaska and the nation, and my hope to provide all citizens the opportunity for a better life, not just today, but well into the future. I have an impassioned and sincere desire to continue serving Alaska in the United States House of Representatives. On March 6, 1973, against overwhelming odds, I was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in a special election victory. Just hours after being sworn-in, I found myself leading the historic battle in the House for the approval of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline. I often tell people that, “next to statehood itself, the most historical passage of legislation that ever affected every Alaskan, then, now and in the future, was the passage of the pipeline legislation.” That same year, I was honored by my colleagues as ‘Freshman Congressman of the Year. I went on to gain key appointments to the Merchant Marine and Fisheries Committee and pushed through the critical 200-mile fishing limit. During time, I continued my vigorous fight against federal control of lands that Alaskans were rightfully entitled – a battle that continues more than 40 years later. On December 6, 2017, I became the Dean of the U.S. House of Representatives, a title that is given to the longest continuously serving Member of the House and as of April 1, 2018 I am the longest serving Member in both the House and Senate of the 115th Congress. I am a current member and former Chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which is Congress’ largest committee with 50 members. I am also the Chairman Emeritus of the House Natural Resources Committee, a committee I chaired during the 104th, 105th, and 106th Congresses, and proudly continue to serve on. Together, these committees have a direct and significant impact on all Alaskans. I continue to introduce and sponsor legislation today for the benefit of all Alaskans and the Nation. In the 115th Congress, I was tapped by the House Natural Resources Committee Chairman to lead the fight on reauthorizing national fisheries legislation known as the Magnusson-Stevens Act – legislation I originally co-authored in 1975. I am also fortunate to have been named among the top 10 most effective lawmakers in Congress, crediting a laser-like focus on Alaska policy issues and ability to move bills through the legislative process. I have proudly passed more bills – a majority with an Alaskan focus – into law than any other member of the House of Representatives, and I look forward to building upon these successes. After serving my nation in the United States Army and completing my college education, I moved to Alaska in 1959 to pursue my passion for the great outdoors. I proudly made my home a stone’s throw from Alaska’s Yukon River in Fort Yukon, Alaska, a remote village of approximately 700 people located 7 miles above the Arctic Circle in Alaska’s central interior region. It was in Fort Yukon that I met and married a young bookkeeper named Lu. Always by my side, Lu supported me throughout my public service career. Lu and I were married for 46 years, and were blessed with and raised two daughters, Joni and Dawn, and 14 grandchildren. Lu passed away on August 2, 2009 at the age of 67. I thank God for the many years we had together and I miss her every day. Although I never thought I would find love again, God led me to a kind and caring woman named Anne – a remarkable flight nurse and proud mother of two children and six grandchildren. On June 9, 2015, Anne gave me the best gift anyone could ask for – her hand in marriage. I proudly serve as the “Congressman for All Alaska” and love my role as the only Alaskan Representative in the House. Renewed by the challenges and goals of the 115th Congress and my committee positions, I will continue to champion legislation and funding for programs benefiting Alaska and the nation. My vision remains the same – to provide citizens with the opportunity for a better life not just for today, but also for tomorrow and the future.[17] |
” |
| —Alaskans for Don Young[18] | ||
Alyse Galvin
| “ |
Health and Wellness Healthcare costs are also standing in the way of economic growth. Too many small companies are unable to expand their businesses. Employers are seeing labor costs explode, while wages remain stagnant. America’s healthcare dollars should be going to patient care, not Big Pharma and special interests. Everyone deserves quality, comprehensive healthcare without worrying, as my family did, that they will not be able to pay for the care they need. Comprehensive healthcare must include coverage for illness and injury and also coverage for preventative care, maternal and reproductive care, mental health, vision, and dental. I know we can get there. In Congress, I will fight Trump’s efforts to take healthcare away from Alaskans. That includes protecting people with pre-existing health conditions so they don’t lose their insurance and prohibiting lifetime limits on insurance coverage. Alaska’s current Representative in Congress just voted for huge cuts to the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which would affect more than 15,000 Alaskan children if they become law. Lowering Costs I support responsible action to bring stability to the system and lower the cost for all Alaskans, including:
Wellness and Mental Health Prevention and treatment programs and additional behavioral health professionals are in desperate need across Alaska. We must comprehensively address the opioid crisis and strengthen access to treatment and recovery services. We must change from the current system that compensates providers based on the volume of services they perform and move to one that compensates based on healthcare outcomes. I support federal policies that make it easier for people to get primary and preventative care to stay healthy. Women's and Reproductive Health Jobs, Economic Development, & Diversification It’s time for Alaskans to start thriving again — not just struggling to get by. That means jobs that have real wage growth, pay a family can live on and quality benefits. In Congress, I will work for policies that help diversify the Alaskan economy and create new opportunities for generations to come. Jobs and Economic Opportunities
Investing in Renewable Energy Kodiak has already proven that renewable energy is possible and effective in Alaska. Kodiak has gotten almost 100 percent of its energy from a combination of wind and hydroelectric resources since 2014. As we move away from fossil fuel across the globe, Alaska can lead the world in new energy production. In Congress, I will direct federal climate change and renewable energy research funding to Alaska’s universities. I will support incentives to accelerate the use of renewable energy in our homes, businesses and public buildings. Responsible Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Alaska has some of the most stringent requirements for oil and gas operations in the world; I support those requirements and believe they should continue to be reviewed to ensure that they are adequately protecting the environment. I am skeptical of oil exploration and development in the Arctic Ocean. I do not believe industry has adequately demonstrated the capability to avoid a major oil spill, nor the ability to clean up oil in a broken ice environment. Any future oil exploration in the offshore Arctic must face significant scrutiny if it is to obtain approval. I am particularly concerned with Arctic Ocean oil and gas activity due to the diminished role of the State of Alaska in such decisions. The loss of the Alaska Coastal Management Program denies the State a valuable tool in protecting our coastal lands and waters, where Alaskans hunt and fish. No statement about oil and gas development in Alaska would be complete without addressing the question of exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Congress has acted to open the 1002 Area of the Refuge to oil and gas exploration. I support safe and responsible oil exploration in this area with no shortcuts or lessening of our environmental standards. I will strive to maximize Alaska-hire for any work done in the Refuge or anywhere else on the North Slope. I support the pursuit of a natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to tidewater. The federal government will have a significant role in maximizing the opportunity for this valuable project to be economically viable. I will pursue opportunities to work with the State and project proponents to advance this project to completion. Mining I am opposed to the Pebble Mine Project because I believe that with current technology it is the wrong mine in the wrong location and represents too big a risk to our vital Bristol Bay fisheries. The Bokan Mountain project in Southeast Alaska is an intriguing rare earth mineral project. These minerals are critical raw materials for our modern technology, such as cell phones. Currently China is the primary producer of these necessary components. It is critical to national security and our modern economy that the U.S. has access to rare earth minerals outside of China. Particularly in light of the reckless trade policies of the Trump Administration, we do not want to find ourselves shut off from our only supply of these materials, as Japan did a few years ago. Because China can manipulate the market price for these minerals, any project is unlikely to go forward without some assurance of an economic sales price. I believe it is incumbent of the federal government to enter into supply contracts with mines such as Bokan to provide the financial security to see such projects proceed, and I will support such efforts as a member of Congress. Fisheries In-state commercial fisheries and federal waters in and off of Alaska annually account for more than one-half of the total volume and about one-third of the harvest value of all seafood harvested in the United States. Alaska’s fisheries provide vital sources of healthy seafood and cultural sustenance to our residents and are a critical component of Alaska’s tourism industry. Key to sustaining our renewable fish resources are habitat protection and robust, science-based management systems. Changes in climate and ocean conditions are bringing many new challenges to fishermen and women, fisheries-dependent communities and fisheries managers. There is an increased need for targeted federal funding for research and for necessary relief to those affected by fishery failures. I will fight to ensure that federal policies and financial resources will provide the support needed to meet these challenges and sustain fisheries resources for all. We must protect Alaska’s salmon from transboundary mining and development, including advocacy with the the other members of the Congressional Delegation, Department of State and International Joint Commission to make sure Alaska’s transboundary waterways are protected. I oppose the Pebble Mine project because of its projected negative effects on Bristol Bay’s fisheries and other environmental concerns. I support subsistence rights and will work at the federal level to uphold them. The federal government, both congressional and administrative branches, has important roles in maintaining healthy fisheries in Alaska. These include such diverse areas as NOAA’s research, management, and weather and climate programs; specific fisheries-management legislation such as the Magnuson-Stevens Act; the U.S. Coast Guard and its important role in fisheries safety and enforcement; environmental protection policies; federal trade and marketing policies; construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructure; and federal funding that goes to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. I will work hard in all of these areas and on efforts to educate federal policy-makers and agencies about the importance of our fisheries to both Alaska and the nation. I will fight for funding and actions that support the long-term health of our fishery resources and to ensure that public input from Alaskans, which is more important than ever in this time of rapid change, will be part of federal decision-making processes. Education Every person in Alaska deserves a first-rate education that helps them realize their potential, seize the opportunity and raise the next great generation of Alaskans. I’m the mom of four kids educated by Alaska public schools. I became a leader of Great Alaska Schools because I was tired of seeing our state’s public education funding on the chopping block year after year, and it’s what led me to ultimately run for Congress. As your representative, I will fight for policies that strengthen our education system and allow our economy to thrive into the future. Early Learning
K-12
Vocational and Technical Opportunities
Higher Education
Safety & Security Public Safety I support federal community policing grants that help cities and villages hire officers who can not only respond to crime as it happens but prevent crime with strong youth mentoring and local partnerships. We need a strong re-entry program from prison and from drug treatment programs so people have the support they need to stay in recovery, find meaningful work, go back to school, reunite with their families and live full lives. Attacking the Opioid Epidemic In Congress, I will fight to put an end to this epidemic and get support for Alaskans whose lives have been devastated, including:
National Security Gun Safety Financial Security
Environment So many of our Alaskan industries, including fishing and tourism, depend on the preservation of the environment. Climate change could bring subsistence hunting and fishing in our Alaska Native communities to the verge of collapse. In Congress, I will fight to protect what makes Alaska so unique and important to the people here — our natural environment. We should be enhancing the funding for climate change research, not casting doubt on it. UAF is one of the most cited research institutions in the world on climate change, and we should be steering more research dollars into our Universities. Adapting to the Changing Climate Investing in Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency We must also be ahead on climate technology and adaptation and advocate fighting climate change to the rest of the country. Alaska should lead in creating jobs in energy conservation construction techniques. We are already advancing such innovation at the Cold Climate Housing Research Center in Fairbanks. We should be investing in and developing these technologies ourselves rather than waiting for the world to sell them to us later. Responsible Natural Resource Development Rural Alaska Economic Development
Public Safety
Subsistence
Tribal Sovereignty
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” |
| —Alyse for Alaska[19] | ||
Social media
Twitter accounts
Tweets by Don Young Tweets by Alyse Galvin
Facebook accounts
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Don Young 
Alyse Galvin
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Alaska are Pivot Counties.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Alaska with 51.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.6 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5.9 percent, which was his third-best showing in a state in 2016.[20] From when it gained statehood in 1959 to 2017, Alaska voted Republican in 14 out of 15 presidential elections. The only time it voted Democratic was in 1964 when President Lyndon Johnson (D) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater (R) with 61.1 percent of the national vote.[21] From 1960 to 2016, Alaska voted for the winning presidential candidate in 60 percent of presidential elections.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Alaska. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[22][23]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 13 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 13 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 27 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 27 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 27.4 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 43.1% | 53.0% | R+9.9 | 40.2% | 49.5% | R+9.4 | D |
| 2 | 35.1% | 61.6% | R+26.5 | 29.9% | 59.9% | R+30.1 | R |
| 3 | 21.9% | 74.9% | R+53 | 16.8% | 73.1% | R+56.2 | R |
| 4 | 48.1% | 47.0% | D+1.1 | 45.4% | 44.3% | D+1.1 | D |
| 5 | 42.0% | 53.7% | R+11.7 | 41.7% | 48.1% | R+6.4 | D |
| 6 | 34.6% | 61.3% | R+26.6 | 30.9% | 59.9% | R+29 | R |
| 7 | 22.6% | 74.3% | R+51.7 | 18.7% | 73.2% | R+54.6 | R |
| 8 | 21.5% | 75.3% | R+53.8 | 15.4% | 77.3% | R+61.9 | R |
| 9 | 28.0% | 68.3% | R+40.3 | 21.2% | 69.8% | R+48.7 | R |
| 10 | 26.2% | 70.1% | R+43.9 | 20.5% | 70.9% | R+50.4 | R |
| 11 | 25.9% | 70.8% | R+44.8 | 22.8% | 68.6% | R+45.7 | R |
| 12 | 25.3% | 71.9% | R+46.6 | 20.8% | 71.2% | R+50.4 | R |
| 13 | 30.3% | 66.6% | R+36.2 | 26.6% | 63.5% | R+36.9 | R |
| 14 | 30.5% | 67.0% | R+36.5 | 30.4% | 59.5% | R+29.2 | R |
| 15 | 42.6% | 54.5% | R+11.9 | 37.8% | 52.0% | R+14.3 | R |
| 16 | 47.7% | 49.3% | R+1.6 | 45.7% | 44.4% | D+1.4 | D |
| 17 | 51.3% | 44.9% | D+6.4 | 50.1% | 39.8% | D+10.3 | D |
| 18 | 56.4% | 40.4% | D+16 | 54.2% | 37.2% | D+17.1 | D |
| 19 | 62.8% | 34.0% | D+28.9 | 56.8% | 34.8% | D+22.1 | D |
| 20 | 61.9% | 34.5% | D+27.4 | 59.9% | 31.5% | D+28.4 | D |
| 21 | 50.2% | 46.9% | D+3.3 | 50.1% | 41.2% | D+8.9 | D |
| 22 | 39.1% | 57.7% | R+18.6 | 40.3% | 51.7% | R+11.4 | I |
| 23 | 44.0% | 53.0% | R+9 | 42.8% | 47.9% | R+5.1 | D |
| 24 | 37.7% | 59.9% | R+22.2 | 39.6% | 52.0% | R+12.4 | R |
| 25 | 43.2% | 54.0% | R+10.8 | 42.6% | 48.1% | R+5.4 | R |
| 26 | 38.1% | 59.3% | R+21.2 | 39.0% | 52.5% | R+13.5 | R |
| 27 | 43.6% | 53.3% | R+9.7 | 43.7% | 47.8% | R+4.1 | R |
| 28 | 41.5% | 55.9% | R+14.4 | 42.8% | 48.8% | R+6 | R |
| 29 | 26.2% | 70.4% | R+44.2 | 23.0% | 69.2% | R+46.3 | R |
| 30 | 24.3% | 72.8% | R+48.5 | 20.8% | 70.7% | R+49.9 | R |
| 31 | 37.5% | 58.8% | R+21.2 | 34.8% | 56.3% | R+21.5 | R |
| 32 | 41.6% | 54.9% | R+13.4 | 37.1% | 51.6% | R+14.5 | R |
| 33 | 63.2% | 31.9% | D+31.3 | 61.9% | 28.2% | D+33.7 | D |
| 34 | 50.5% | 45.7% | D+4.8 | 46.1% | 43.1% | D+3 | D |
| 35 | 51.0% | 44.7% | D+6.4 | 42.7% | 46.6% | R+4 | D |
| 36 | 41.0% | 54.4% | R+13.5 | 33.5% | 55.3% | R+21.8 | I |
| 37 | 55.8% | 40.6% | D+15.2 | 49.4% | 39.5% | D+9.9 | D |
| 38 | 72.1% | 23.4% | D+48.7 | 57.7% | 23.9% | D+33.8 | D |
| 39 | 69.1% | 26.1% | D+42.9 | 59.7% | 26.7% | D+33.1 | D |
| 40 | 64.8% | 31.8% | D+33.1 | 54.1% | 31.8% | D+22.3 | D |
| Total | 41.2% | 55.3% | R+14.1 | 37.6% | 52.8% | R+15.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Don Young (R) defeated Steve Lindbeck (D), Jim McDermott (L), Bernie Souphanavong (I), and Stephen Wright (R Write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Young defeated Gerald Heikes, Jesse Tingley, and Stephen Wright in the Republican primary, while Lindbeck defeated William Hibler and Lynette Hinz to win the Democratic nomination. Jim McDermott defeated Jon Briggs Watts in the Libertarian primary. The primary elections took place on August 16, 2016.[24][25]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Don Young Incumbent |
50.3% | 155,088 | |
| Democratic | Steve Lindbeck | 36% | 111,019 | |
| Libertarian | Jim McDermott | 10.3% | 31,770 | |
| Independent | Bernie Souphanavong | 3% | 9,093 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.4% | 1,228 | |
| Total Votes | 308,198 | |||
| Source: Alaska Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Don Young Incumbent |
71.5% | 38,998 | ||
| Stephen Wright | 18.7% | 10,189 | ||
| Gerald Heikes | 5.2% | 2,817 | ||
| Jesse Tingley | 4.6% | 2,524 | ||
| Total Votes | 54,528 | |||
| Source: Alaska Division of Elections |
||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Steve Lindbeck |
67.9% | 17,009 | ||
| Lynette Hinz | 20.5% | 5,130 | ||
| William Hibler | 11.6% | 2,918 | ||
| Total Votes | 25,057 | |||
| Source: Alaska Division of Elections |
||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jim McDermott |
71.4% | 3,960 | ||
| Jon Briggs Watts | 28.6% | 1,583 | ||
| Total Votes | 5,543 | |||
| Source: Alaska Division of Elections |
||||
2014
Alaska's At-Large Congressional District held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Don Young (R) defeated Forrest Dunbar (D) and Jim McDermott (L) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Don Young Incumbent |
51% | 142,572 | |
| Democratic | Forrest Dunbar | 41% | 114,602 | |
| Libertarian | Jim McDermott | 7.6% | 21,290 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.5% | 1,277 | |
| Total Votes | 279,741 | |||
| Source: Alaska Secretary of State | ||||
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. House wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[26] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[27] | -48 | D | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[28] | -48 | D | |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Alaska heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Alaska.
- A Republican held the U.S. House seat in Alaska.
State executives
- As of August 2018, independents held two of 11 state executive positions, Democrats one, and the remaining positions were nonpartisan.
- The governor of Alaska was independent Bill Walker. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Alaska State Legislature. They had a 23-16 majority in the state House and a 14-6 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Alaska was under divided government, meaning that one party did not control the state government. Bill Walker (I) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Alaska elections, 2018
Alaska held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- U.S. House
- Governor
- Other state executive
- State Senate
- State House
- Local judges
- School boards
- Municipal government
- Recalls
Demographics
| Demographic data for Alaska | ||
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 737,709 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 570,641 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 66% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 3.4% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 13.8% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 8.4% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.5% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 92.1% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $72,515 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Alaska. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Alaska's three largest cities were Anchorage (pop. est. 294,000), Juneau (pop. est. 32,000), and Fairbanks (pop. est. 32,000).[29]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Alaska from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Alaska Division of Elections.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Alaska every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Alaska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
51% | Hillary Clinton |
37% | 14% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
55% | Barack Obama |
41% | 14% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
59% | Barack Obama |
38% | 21% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
61% | John Kerry |
36% | 25% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
59% | Al Gore |
28% | 31% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Alaska from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Alaska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Lisa Murkowski |
44% |  Joe Miller |
29% | 15% |
| 2014 | Dan Sullivan |
48% | Mark Begich |
46% | 2% |
| 2010 |  Lisa Murkowski |
39% | Joe Miller |
35% | 4% |
| 2008 | Mark Begich |
48% | Ted Stevens |
47% | 1% |
| 2004 | Lisa Murkowski |
49% | Tony Knowles |
46% | 3% |
| 2002 | Ted Stevens |
78% | Frank Vondersaar |
11% | 67% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Alaska.
| Election results (Governor), Alaska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Bill Walker |
48% | Sean Parnell |
46% | 2% |
| 2010 | Sean Parnell |
59% | Ethan Berkowitz |
38% | 21% |
| 2006 | Sarah Palin |
48% | Tony Knowles |
41% | 7% |
| 2002 | Frank Murkowski |
56% | Fran Ulmer |
41% | 15% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Alaska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2014 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2010 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2008 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2006 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2004 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2002 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
| 2000 | 1 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Alaska Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | I | I | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | I | I | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | S |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
- U.S. House primaries, 2018
- United States House election in Alaska (August 21, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House election in Alaska (August 21, 2018 Republican primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Alaskans for Don Young, "Don's Story - Congressman for All Alaska," accessed October 22, 2018
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Alyse for Alaska, "Meet Alyse," accessed October 22, 2018
- ↑ Youtube, "It's Time to Stand Up to Washington," October 5, 2018
- ↑ Youtube, "Not in Anyone's Pocket," September 20, 2018
- ↑ Youtube "Our Future in Alaska," October 13, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ Congressional Leadership Fund, "Congressional Leadership Fund Launches GOTV Campaign in AK-AL," November 3, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Anchorage Daily News, "WATCH: Congressional candidates Young and Galvin debate at AFN convention," October 21, 2018
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Alaskans for Don Young, "Don's Story - Congressman for All Alaska," accessed October 22, 2018
- ↑ Alyse for Alaska, "Healthcare," accessed October 22, 2018
- ↑ Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "2016 Presidential General Election Data - National," accessed May 31, 2017
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Historical Presidential Elections," accessed May 31, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Alaska Secretary of State, "August 16, 2016 Primary Candidate List," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Alaska House Races Results," August 16, 2016
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Alaska Demographics, "Alaska Cities by Population," accessed August 31, 2018
