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How do major media outlets declare winners? (2022)
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Millions of Americans tuned into major news media and monitored social media outlets on Election Day to see who declared the winners. Here’s how major outlets used exit polling, online surveys, turnout numbers, voting patterns, and election return trends to project winners and communicate those announcements.
Click the links below to see statements from major media outlets about their methodologies for calling elections:
Associated Press
The Associated Press wrote:[1]
| “ | [AP’s Decision Team has a wide range of tools at its disposal to analyze the state of a race. They include AP’s vote count, which it has conducted in every U.S. presidential election since 1848. In general elections and presidential primaries, the Decision Team also has access to data from AP VoteCast, our wide-ranging survey of the American electorate.
Race callers collaborate with analysts who focus on statewide races, such as those for U.S. Senate and governor, and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. The editors on AP’s Decision Team sign off on every race call for president, U.S. Senate and governor. Together, they are looking at far more than just the overall vote totals. They study the incoming vote county by county. In states where the information is available, they look at the vote by type of ballot: cast in person at polling places, or in advance by mail or in person. They are also in constant contact with AP’s vote count team, in search of the latest information about what’s been counted so far and how many ballots may still be left to count. All of this reporting and analysis is aimed at determining the answer to a single question: Can the trailing candidates catch the leader? Only when the answer is an unquestionable “no” is the race ready to be called.[2] |
” |
ABC News
In October 2020, Dan Merkle of ABC News said:[3]
| “ | On Election Day, there is a strict embargo on any data coming from the early waves of exit poll data until 5 p.m. ET. By about 5:45 p.m., some initial demographic information about voters and their views on key issues in the election will be available on ABCNews.com. After the polls close in a state, the complete exit poll crosstabs will be posted on ABCNews.com.
ABC News will not project a winner until the last scheduled poll closing time in each state. If a race is not projected at poll closing time, the projection will incorporate actual vote data and will be made as soon as the data warrant. Information will be constantly updated throughout the evening on ABCNews.com and on all ABC News programs.[2] |
” |
NBC News
In October 2020, John Lapinski, Director of the Elections Unit at NBC News, said:[4]
| “ | [NBC] will project an individual race when it is at least 99.5% confident a candidate has won. If [NBC’s elections team] finds that state reported all or almost all their ballots on election night, and a candidate has won decisively according to their statistical projections, NBC will project that outcome. ... And in those instances, [they] will not call those races if they can’t get to 270 electoral votes and meet their polling standards. 'We don't call close races off of exit polls.'[2] | ” |
CBS News
In October 2020, Anthony Salvanto, CBS News Director of Elections and Surveys, said:[5]
| “ | We'll take all the states and tell you which ones we're really certain about, and which ones we still need to wait for, and we'll be real transparent about that. ... Even if we don't have all the information yet, we will show you and illustrate for you what we do know, and if we have to wait, then we have to wait.[2] | ” |
Politico
According to Politico (in the 2020 election cycle):[6]
| “ | [Politico] has traditionally called a race either when The Associated Press or three TV outlets project a victor.[2] | ” |
CNN
In October 2020, CNN Washington Bureau Chief Sam Feist said:[7]
| “ | When there's enough votes in a particular state to give the decision team the confidence that that person is going to win, then they can announce a projection. ... We tend to make projections early on election night if the race is not close particularly in those battleground states, [but] it is entirely possible that there won't be a projection on election night. ... If we have not projected enough states for a candidate to get to 270 electoral votes, and a candidate comes out and declares victory, we will make it clear that the facts do not back up that claim of victory. ... There are a number of things we are looking for in each state to have confidence in a projection. Most important is what's been counted: Where are the votes coming from geographically within the state, what types of votes are included in the count, and how much of the total vote does the count represent right now?[2] | ” |
Fox News
In October 2020, Arnon Mishkin, director of the Fox News Decision Desk, said:[8]
| “ | We met as a team here at Fox and developed what we thought would be a different way of approaching a ‘voter x-ray,’ if you will — sort of understanding the voters. And we thought, let's do sort of a combination of a phone and internet poll across the country in the days before an election, which we thought would be the same tool for covering early voters, Election Day voters, and mail-in or absentee voters. ... The timing of the call is going to be a function of how wide the margin is between the two candidates, and not just in the presidency, but also in the various other statewide races. In the event that there's a wide margin, I think all of the networks are going to be able to make a call fairly quickly. In the event that the margin is much closer, you won't be able to make that call because you won't be able to see if there's a difference until later in the evening — and that's true in any election.[2] | ” |
In October 2020, Guy Rosen, Facebook VP of Integrity, wrote:[9]
| “ | When polls close, we will run a notification at the top of Facebook and Instagram and apply labels to candidates’ posts directing people to the Voting Information Center for more information about the vote-counting process. But, if a candidate or party declares premature victory before a race is called by major media outlets, we will add more specific information in the notifications that counting is still in progress and no winner has been determined. If the candidate that is declared the winner by major media outlets is contested by another candidate or party, we will show the name of the declared winning candidate with notifications at the top of Facebook and Instagram, as well as label posts from presidential candidates, with the declared winner’s name and a link to the Voting Information Center.[2] | ” |
In October 2020, Vijaya Gadde and Kayvon Beykpour of Twitter said:[10]
| “ | People on Twitter, including candidates for office, may not claim an election win before it is authoritatively called. To determine the results of an election in the US, we require either an announcement from state election officials, or a public projection from at least two authoritative, national news outlets that make independent election calls. Tweets which include premature claims will be labeled and direct people to our official US election page.[2] | ” |
Sources of data for projecting winners
Edison Research's "National Election Pool" will make race projections for the 435 U.S. House races in addition to statewide races and ballot measures. NEP uses exit poll interviews with voters immediately after they leave the polling place, and a combination of phone surveys and in-person interviews with absentee and early voters. News outlets partnering with Edison Research and NEP in 2022 are ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News.[11]
See also
- Ballotpedia: How we decide when to call an election
- Ballotpedia's 2022 Election Help Desk: Election result reporting and certification
Footnotes
- ↑ Associated Press, "How We Call Races," accessed October 5, 2022
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ ABC News, "What you need to know about Election Day exit polls," October 27, 2020
- ↑ Daily Pennsylvanian, "Penn’s election experts claim media outlets will responsibly call the presidential race," October 23, 2020
- ↑ CBS News, "How CBS News Will Be Calling States on Election Night and Afterward," October 7, 2020
- ↑ Politico, "Watchdogs demand election night clarity from the media," October 17, 2020
- ↑ CNN, "It's not magic, it's math. Here's how CNN makes election projections," October 17, 2020
- ↑ Business Insider, "The Fox News Decision Desk director explains how races will be called on election night," October 19, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Preparing for Election Day," October 7, 2020
- ↑ Twitter, "Additional steps we're taking ahead of the 2020 US Election," October 9, 2020
- ↑ Edison Research, "Election Day Coverage," accessed October 5, 2022
