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Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015)
Hillary Wins Big
October 13, 2015
Hillary Clinton was the big winner of the first Democratic presidential debate—in more ways than one. In a survey of more than 100 Democratic and Republican Party political insiders, an overwhelming 89 percent of Democrats said she was the "biggest winner" of the debate. Her performance was so commanding that some observers felt that the opportunity for Vice President Joe Biden to make a late entry into the Democratic race was slipping away. Said one Democrat, "Joe Biden is probably leaning against now." And a Republican added, "If Biden was watching—and he was—he surely knows there is no room for him on the stage."
Among the 70 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives—who responded to the survey, Clinton was the hottest act on the Vegas strip. "She had the most to lose and in the end showed she had the most to win with this performance," said one Democratic Insider. "She commanded the stage and was confident in her answers," said another. "She showed tonight why she is battle tested and ready to be elected president." Added a third, "She was outstanding: incredible knowledge of the issues, a fighter, willing to engage and stand up for what she believes."
In the view of some Democratic Insiders, Clinton was hardly tested in the debate, reprising a familiar critique of this field of candidates that it lacks contenders of national stature outside of the former secretary of state. "She was poised and Presidential; the only one about whom you can say that," observed one Democratic Insider. "She was the only capable one on the stage," echoed another. A third summed up the debate and Clinton's performance thus: "There was no legitimate outsider in the debate so the consummate insider won. She did all she had to do, but the others made it easy." This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders in both parties.
Her command of the issues also won kudos. Clinton was "relaxed, confident and knows the issues by far the best," maintained one Democratic Insider. "She showed depth and knowledge without condescension," added another.
And with an assist from her leading challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had the most popular line of the night—"the American people are sick and tired hearing about your damn emails"—the controversy that has dogged Clinton’s campaign receded, at least for the moment. "She cleared the email hurdles within the Democratic Party and had a very strong performance," said one influential Democrat. "With Bernie's help [she] left the emails out in the cold night air of Nevada," said another.
And while the 50 Republican Insiders who responded to the survey were not as bullish on Clinton as Democrats were, a 44 percent plurality still acknowledged her as the biggest winner of the debate. "Hillary was in control and in command; forceful, prepared, professional, funny and confident," observed one Republican Insider. "Sanders took the email issue off the table for her." Added another: "Clinton was the only adult and, shockingly, the warmest, most empathetic figure on the stage. Bernie was the most passionate and therefore got the best applause lines, but she did what she had to do."
Predictably, some Republicans grumbled that Clinton's Democratic rivals lacked much of punch. "The other four were wimps who refused to take her on," asserted one GOP Insider. "Does Bernie even want to be president, or is he just happy advocating for progressive issues?" asked an influential Republican. "We had our answer tonight; no fight against Hillary at all."
Sanders was seen as the biggest winner by a handful of Democratic Insiders—nine percent—who felt he gained credibility in the debate that Clinton already possessed. "If Sanders and Clinton were equally well known it might have been a tie, but as the relative unknown, Sanders closed the gap by coming off as equally presidential," said a Democratic Insider. "He had to come across as potentially Presidential," said another. "He clearly did."
Even fewer Democratic Insiders—three percent—felt that former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley won the debate, but those that did believed he too climbed up the credibility ladder. O'Malley "showed he was presidential. Nobody else moved," declared a Democratic Insider.
As for who was the debate's "biggest loser," that unenviable distinction went to former Rhode Island senator and governor, Lincoln Chafee, who only a few years ago switched his party identification to Democratic from Independent. A Democratic Insiders said Chafee gave a "horrible performance that left people wondering why he was on stage." Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who repeatedly complained he was being shortchanged on time, was the runner-up for the loser's award. "Too angry and too much whining," said one Democrat in assessing Webb.
And while some Democratic Insiders said Sanders and O'Malley gained some stature in their first presidential debate, that view was not unanimous. Of Sanders, one Insider asserted he was "not presidential in the slightest." Another echoed, "He didn't pass the credibility test." And a third noted, "At times he looked off beat." O’Malley also took some hits. "Having spent weeks calling for new debates, you'd think he’d have been better prepared to use this one as a breakout moment," jabbed one Democratic influential. "Wasted opportunity for him." Another simply said, "Squandered opportunity."
As the runaway winner of the debate, Democratic Insiders predictably said Clinton was helped by the debate. And as one Democrat asked, "Why on earth didn't HRC want more of these?" At the same time, 54 percent said O'Malley had helped himself with his performance and 46 percent said the same for Sanders. "Martin O'Malley wisely used this opportunity to introduce himself to the national audience," noted one Democratic Insider. "He definitely has more upside and should get a modest boost out of the debate." On Sanders, another Democratic Insiders said, "Bernie was up and down, but showed why liberals love him." But neither one of these two had a standout performance. As one Democratic Insider put it, "Sanders was both good and bad. Clearly had the most passion on the issues but also did not look that presidential. This will be a huge barrier for him to overcome. O'Malley was only OK and needed to be better than that." With Clinton demonstrating that she's on her game in debates, her Democratic rivals cannot afford mixed reviews if they hope to overtake her.
James A. Barnes has conducted surveys of political elites for National Journal magazine, where he founded the Insiders Poll, CNN and YouGov, an online polling firm. He is also the co-author of the forthcoming 2016 Almanac of American Politics. This survey was conducted October 13-14.
