Low number of seats determined which state legislative chambers flipped
November 17, 2014
By Ballotpedia's State Legislative team
In the 11 state legislative chambers that flipped Republican on November 4, just over 14 percent of the seats played an active role in the final partisan breakdown. Republican candidates won more than 90 percent of the 132 seats that changed partisan control in those 11 chambers. In total, 132 seats flipped control in the 915 seats up in the 11 chambers. Those 132 seats amount to 2.2 percent of all 6,057 seats up for election in 2014.
Nearly half of the 119 Republican pick-ups came out of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, due to the extreme size of the chamber and historical tendencies of New Hampshire voters. Removing the New Hampshire State House from the batch, 66 seats flipped Republican and 10 seats went to Democrats in the remaining 10 chambers. In other words, 76 seats ultimately decided the partisan balance of 10 chambers.
It is also important to note the relevance of seats that did not flip. In just the 11 chambers that flipped, 381 seats featured a margin of victory of 10 percent or less, according to unofficial returns. This means that the flipped seats represent just about half of the closest races in those flipped chambers. A total of 149 seats had a margin of victory of 5 percent or less.
The Republican Party's performance in state legislative chambers on November 4 mirrored its successes on the federal level. In what was a crushing defeat for the Democratic Party, Republican state legislative candidates gained around 300 seats in the 87 chambers that held general elections in 2014. While this year's Republican wave isn't quite as big as the wave in 2010, when around 600 seats turned red, it did strongly counter the Democratic gains from 2012. Democrats picked up a total of 167 seats in 2012.
Heading into the 2014 elections, Republicans held a majority of state legislative chambers. Fifty-nine chambers, counting the New York State Senate and Washington State Senate, were under Republican control. (Although the New York State Senate and Washington State Senate technically had Democratic majorities, in both states a coalition arrangement between several break-away Democrats and the minority Republicans gave the Republicans effective control of those chambers.) Democrats held effective controlling majorities in 39 chambers: 18 state senates and 21 state houses. Although technically nonpartisan, the Nebraska State Senate was controlled by a Republican majority.[1]
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Balance of All 99 Chambers Before and After 2014 Elections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber | 
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| State senates | 18 | 31* | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35[2] | 0 | 1 |
| State houses | 21 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 39 | 59* | 0 | 1 | 30 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
*Note: Although Democrats had numerical majorities in both the New York State Senate and Washington State Senate, coalitions gave Republicans control of those chambers.
A total of 1,098 (55.6%) of the country's 1,972 state senate seats and 4,958 (91.6%) of the country's 5,411 state house seats were up for a vote. Altogether, 6,057 (82.0%) of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election during the midterm election year. Of the seats up for election in November, 2,876 were held by Democrats while 3,123 were held by Republicans.[3]
- 42 of the 50 state senates held elections.
- 45 of the 49 state houses held elections.
Chambers that flipped
A total of 11 chambers flipped to Republican control. Nine of them were previously held by Democrats, while Republicans gained an outright majority in two chambers where they previously ruled by coalition. The Republicans will control 68 chambers starting in January 2015. The following chambers flipped:
- Colorado State Senate
- Maine State Senate
- Minnesota State House
- Nevada State Senate
- Nevada State Assembly
- New Hampshire State House
- New Mexico State House
- New York State Senate
- Washington State Senate
- West Virginia State House
- West Virginia State Senate[4]
The 11 chambers that flipped represent 13 percent of the 86 partisan chambers that were up for election in 2014. All told, Republicans gained around 300 seats, amounting to about 5 percent of the state legislative seats with elections.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Omaha.com, "Democrats cut into GOP lead in Nebraska Legislature," accessed May 13, 2014 (dead link)
- ↑ Note: West Virginia was originally tied but State Senator Daniel Hall changed from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day after the election, giving partisan control to the Republicans.
- ↑ Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2014 state legislative elections
- ↑ Note: The West Virginia State Senate was originally tied but State Senator Daniel Hall changed from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day after the election, giving partisan control to the Republicans.
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