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Public Policy Polling
| Public Policy Polling | |
 | |
| Basic facts | |
| Type: | Polling firm |
| Founder(s): | Dean Debnam |
| Year founded: | 2001 |
| Website: | Official website |
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a Democratic public opinion research organization headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina. It describes itself as "...the highest quality polling at the most affordable price of any company out there." In 2008, The Wall Street Journal described PPP's polls as "as accurate as live-interview surveys," and ranked them fourth among interactive voice response survey operations.[1]
Background
PPP was founded in 2001 by Dean Debnam as a public polling firm that could provide services to campaigns at a lower cost. According to the organization's website, Debnam believed "campaigns and advocacy organizations often allocated huge sums to survey research that could be better spent elsewhere, and that the price of survey research kept smaller organizations from enjoying the benefits of measuring public opinion."[2]
Work and activities
Polling
PPP's polling is conducted by automatic phone surveys through a system called Interactive Voice Response.[2] The organization calls only landline phones and only surveys registered voters. They also go back to polling responses and engage in a process called random deletion, where they delete hundreds of responses at random.[3] In a 2012 interview, PPP polling director Tom Jensen said that the organization also makes assumptions about voter turnout. Jensen said, "The art part of polling, as opposed to the science part is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the equation in having accurate polls."[4]
In a 2013 article for the New Republic, Nate Cohn described PPP's position in the polling industry, writing, "No pollster attracts more love and hate than Public Policy Polling. The Democratically aligned polling firm routinely asks questions that poke fun at Republicans, like whether then-Senator Barack Obama was responsible for Hurricane Katrina. Not coincidentally, Republicans routinely accuse them of being biased toward Democrats."[3]
According to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, PPP's methods of adjusting the composition of a polled sample also made them more likely to engage in what he called herding, where polling companies produce results that match one another near the end of a campaign. In 2014, Silver called PPP "the biggest herders in the business."[5]
2020 presidential election
Public Policy Polling released presidential polls in late August and early September 2020 finding former Vice President Joe Biden (D) leading President Donald Trump (R) in four battleground states: Minnesota (by eight points), Michigan (by four points), Georgia (by one point), and Florida (by four points). Trump led in Texas (by one point).[6]
According to an analysis of 423 polls, FiveThirtyEight gave Public Policy Polling an overall grade of B on May 19, 2020.[7]
2016 presidential election
In September 2016, PPP released its final national presidential poll in which they found that Hillary Clinton (D) had a four-point lead over Donald Trump (R). The poll noted, "We’ve consistently found Hillary Clinton with a national lead in the 3-6 point range since Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination. ... She’s never been able to blow the race wide open and she probably never will, but her modest advantage has proven to be quite durable."[8]
2014 elections
In its final polls during the 2014 election cycle, PPP correctly called the following races:[9][10][11][12]
- David Perdue (R) for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat
- Jeanne Shaheen (D) for New Hampshire's U.S. Senate seat
- Maggie Hassan (D) for New Hampshire governor
- Joni Ernst (R) for Iowa's U.S. Senate seat
- Terry Branstad (R) for Iowa governor
- Cory Gardner (R) for Colorado's U.S. Senate seat
- Dan Sullivan (R) for Alaska's U.S. Senate seat
- Mitch McConnell (R) for Kentucky's U.S. Senate seat
- Asa Hutchinson (R) for Arkansas governor
- Tom Cotton (R) for Arkansas' U.S. Senate seat
- Dan Malloy (D) for Connecticut governor
- Charlie Baker (R) for Massachusetts governor
- Butch Otter (R) for Idaho governor
The group incorrectly called the following races:
- PPP projected Kay Hagan (D) over Thom Tillis (R) for North Carolina's U.S. Senate seat
- PPP projected Paul Davis (D) over Sam Brownback (R) for Kansas governor
- PPP projected Greg Orman (I) over Pat Roberts (R) for Kansas' U.S. Senate seat
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "Polls Foresaw Future, Which Looks Tough for Polling," November 6, 2008
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Public Policy Polling, "About Us," accessed October 12, 2017
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 New Republic, "There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster," September 12, 2013
- ↑ New York Magazine, "The Polls Ultimately Ended Up Making Sense — But Next Time, Who Knows?" November 7, 2012
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale," November 14, 2014
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Latest Polls," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings," May 19, 2020
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Clinton Leads by 4 Nationally; Trump Hurt Himself in Debate," September 29, 2016
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Toss Ups Abound in GA, NC, NH, KS, IA," November 3, 2014
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Republicans Hold Slim Leads in Colorado, Alaska Senate Races," November 2, 2014
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "GOP likely to win Arkansas, Kentucky Senate Races; Louisiana Still Close," November 1, 2014
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Close Races for Governor in CT and MA, Otter pulls away in ID," November 1, 2014
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