United States House election in North Dakota, 2020 (June 9 Republican primary)
- Primary date: June 9
- Primary type: Open
- Registration deadline(s): N/A
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Early voting starts: Varies locally
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): June 8 (postmarked)
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 6, 2020 |
| Primary: June 9, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Kelly Armstrong (R) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
At-large North Dakota elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections in North Dakota took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's at-large congressional district. This page focuses on the Republican primary that took place in North Dakota on June 9, 2020.
Click here for more information about the Democratic primary.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Kelly Armstrong, who was first elected in 2018.
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. A primary election is also sometimes used to choose convention delegates and party leaders; however, these selection processes can vary from state to state and party to party within a state. In North Dakota, precinct, district, and state party officials are selected at party caucuses and conventions, not at the state-administered primary election. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. North Dakota utilizes an open primary system, in which voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[1][2]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
North Dakota modified its primary election process as follows:
- Voting procedures: Counties were authorized to conduct the primary election entirely by mail.
- Political party events: Both the Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party of North Dakota and the Republican Party of North Dakota canceled their state conventions.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
At-large district
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Kelly Armstrong | 99.5 | 99,582 |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.5 | 461 | ||
| Total votes: 100,043 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Benson County, North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | ||||
| Ransom County, North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | ||||
| Sargent County, North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | ||||
| Steele County, North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[3]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 25.25% | 72.44% | R+47.2 | 15.70% | 77.60% | R+61.9 | R |
| 2 | 23.50% | 74.04% | R+50.5 | 12.81% | 81.65% | R+68.8 | R |
| 3 | 34.53% | 62.62% | R+28.1 | 20.28% | 69.79% | R+49.5 | R |
| 4 | 44.65% | 53.30% | R+8.7 | 31.23% | 62.19% | R+31 | R |
| 5 | 35.04% | 62.99% | R+27.9 | 25.32% | 65.85% | R+40.5 | R |
| 6 | 33.60% | 64.02% | R+30.4 | 19.03% | 73.86% | R+54.8 | R |
| 7 | 28.93% | 68.80% | R+39.9 | 18.95% | 74.05% | R+55.1 | R |
| 8 | 28.39% | 69.14% | R+40.7 | 16.17% | 78.39% | R+62.2 | R |
| 9 | 73.98% | 24.10% | D+49.9 | 57.16% | 33.14% | D+24 | D |
| 10 | 40.63% | 56.80% | R+16.2 | 23.79% | 68.63% | R+44.8 | R |
| 11 | 54.52% | 42.92% | D+11.6 | 47.09% | 42.67% | D+4.4 | D |
| 12 | 40.44% | 56.89% | R+16.5 | 28.16% | 63.38% | R+35.2 | R |
| 13 | 45.20% | 52.76% | R+7.6 | 36.60% | 54.96% | R+18.4 | R |
| 14 | 30.67% | 67.01% | R+36.3 | 19.04% | 74.40% | R+55.4 | R |
| 15 | 43.56% | 53.45% | R+9.9 | 28.47% | 62.14% | R+33.7 | R |
| 16 | 50.78% | 45.95% | D+4.8 | 40.22% | 49.41% | R+9.2 | R |
| 17 | 43.28% | 54.92% | R+11.6 | 36.93% | 56.05% | R+19.1 | R |
| 18 | 55.25% | 41.99% | D+13.3 | 39.68% | 50.13% | R+10.4 | D |
| 19 | 38.30% | 59.10% | R+20.8 | 23.98% | 68.23% | R+44.3 | R |
| 20 | 43.84% | 53.94% | R+10.1 | 28.99% | 61.73% | R+32.7 | D |
| 21 | 58.10% | 37.73% | D+20.4 | 49.24% | 38.72% | D+10.5 | D |
| 22 | 39.93% | 57.89% | R+18 | 30.35% | 60.24% | R+29.9 | R |
| 23 | 48.91% | 48.94% | R+0 | 34.28% | 57.80% | R+23.5 | R |
| 24 | 45.51% | 52.18% | R+6.7 | 30.90% | 59.19% | R+28.3 | R |
| 25 | 41.58% | 56.58% | R+15 | 27.20% | 64.26% | R+37.1 | D |
| 26 | 47.28% | 50.58% | R+3.3 | 30.77% | 59.94% | R+29.2 | R |
| 27 | 43.92% | 53.66% | R+9.7 | 38.23% | 51.62% | R+13.4 | R |
| 28 | 25.69% | 71.88% | R+46.2 | 14.18% | 80.31% | R+66.1 | R |
| 29 | 34.32% | 63.27% | R+28.9 | 20.98% | 72.76% | R+51.8 | R |
| 30 | 34.36% | 63.38% | R+29 | 23.14% | 69.35% | R+46.2 | R |
| 31 | 37.63% | 60.06% | R+22.4 | 24.35% | 68.30% | R+44 | R |
| 32 | 37.65% | 59.45% | R+21.8 | 26.56% | 64.60% | R+38 | R |
| 33 | 26.89% | 70.44% | R+43.6 | 13.37% | 81.32% | R+68 | R |
| 34 | 36.69% | 60.28% | R+23.6 | 23.55% | 67.65% | R+44.1 | R |
| 35 | 37.72% | 59.56% | R+21.8 | 29.88% | 60.59% | R+30.7 | R |
| 36 | 21.01% | 77.00% | R+56 | 11.33% | 83.81% | R+72.5 | R |
| 37 | 26.51% | 71.55% | R+45 | 16.67% | 77.64% | R+61 | R |
| 38 | 30.15% | 67.72% | R+37.6 | 19.59% | 72.28% | R+52.7 | R |
| 39 | 19.92% | 78.02% | R+58.1 | 11.09% | 83.49% | R+72.4 | R |
| 40 | 35.42% | 61.14% | R+25.7 | 25.35% | 63.05% | R+37.7 | R |
| 41 | 42.55% | 55.38% | R+12.8 | 39.53% | 51.32% | R+11.8 | R |
| 42 | 49.85% | 46.46% | D+3.4 | 39.58% | 49.50% | R+9.9 | R |
| 43 | 49.24% | 48.50% | D+0.7 | 41.62% | 50.35% | R+8.7 | R |
| 44 | 52.26% | 44.96% | D+7.3 | 46.38% | 42.62% | D+3.8 | D |
| 45 | 44.75% | 52.72% | R+8 | 35.95% | 54.29% | R+18.3 | R |
| 46 | 45.62% | 52.35% | R+6.7 | 41.96% | 49.55% | R+7.6 | R |
| 47 | 30.74% | 67.39% | R+36.7 | 25.59% | 67.63% | R+42 | R |
| Total | 38.92% | 58.66% | R+19.7 | 27.74% | 64.15% | R+36.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+16, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District the 70th most Republican nationally.[6]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[7]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Armstrong | Republican Party | $1,273,005 | $1,083,764 | $305,708 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: North Dakota's At-large Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- United States House election in North Dakota, 2020 (June 9 Democratic primary)
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
- United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 12, 2024
- ↑ Justia, "2023 North Dakota Century Code, CHAPTER 16.1-11 NOMINATIONS FOR OFFICE - PRIMARY ELECTION," accessed August 12, 2024
- ↑ 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
