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United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020 (September 8 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, New Hampshire
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 12, 2020
Primary: September 8, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by municipality
Voting in New Hampshire
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
U.S. Senate, New Hampshire
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
New Hampshire elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Bryant "Corky" Messner won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire on September 8, 2020. He received 51% of the vote to Don Bolduc's 43%. Two other candidates ran.

Messner served in the Army during the Cold War and was qualified as a ranger. He later founded the law firm Messner Reeves LLP. Bolduc served in the Army for more than 30 years and was a brigadier general.

Messner was endorsed by President Donald Trump, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and the National Association for Gun Rights, among others. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), and the Senate Conservatives Fund were among Bolduc's endorsers.

Messner highlighted his USA Plan, which he said would bring manufacturing jobs to the country and state, keep small business taxes low, and limit government regulations.

Bolduc said he would fight special interests in Washington. He also emphasized that he was from New Hampshire, while Messner had more recently moved to the state.[1]

See more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages here.

Through June 30, Messner had raised $4.3 million, including $3.9 million he loaned his campaign.[2] Bolduc had raised $740,000.

Also running were Gerard Beloin and Andy Martin.

This page focuses on New Hampshire's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New Hampshire modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Voting procedures: Any voter may request an absentee ballot based on concerns related to COVID-19. Voters could submit one absentee ballot application for both the primary and general elections.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Hampshire

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryant Messner
Bryant Messner
 
50.5
 
69,801
Image of Don Bolduc
Don Bolduc
 
42.5
 
58,749
Image of Andy Martin
Andy Martin
 
4.7
 
6,443
Image of Gerard Beloin
Gerard Beloin
 
2.2
 
3,098
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
241

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 138,332
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[3] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Don Bolduc

Image of Don Bolduc

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Bolduc was a brigadier general in the Army. He received an associate degree in criminal justice from Dean College, a B.S. in sociology from Salem State University, a master's degree in business technology from Webster University, a master's in strategic studies from Army War College, and an honorary doctorate in humane letters from New England College.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Bolduc's campaign website said, "DC is broken and just isn’t getting the job done for New Hampshire. I won’t let special interests or partisan politics get in the way of my new mission, serving as your United States Senator."

"I am the only candidate running that was on the ground fighting terrorists on behalf of this president and fulfilling his policies and doing the right thing. I will do the same for you. We want a different America, then we need to change who we send to Washington, D.C., and why we send them there. I've taken quite a few hills in my career. Next hill I'm taking: Capitol Hill, baby."

Show sources

Sources: Don Bolduc's 2020 campaign website, "Home," accessed August 25, 2020; YouTube, "The Next Hill," August 10, 2020; WMUR, "2020 candidate profile: Don Bolduc (R)," accessed August 25, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate New Hampshire in 2020.

Bryant Messner

Image of Bryant Messner

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Messner graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point and was qualified as an Army Ranger. He then received a J.D. from the University of Denver Sturm School of Law. Messner founded the law firm Messner Reeves LLP.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Messner's campaign website said, "Successful businessman, West Point graduate, proud father and patriot, Bryant 'Corky' Messner is running to defeat career politician Jeanne Shaheen to represent New Hampshire in the United States Senate."

"We need to bring back the economy so our families can preserve the American dream. And in my USA Plan, we can provide incentives to American business to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States from China and create manufacturing jobs here in New Hampshire. It keeps taxes low on small businesses, and it continues to limit government regulation."

Show sources

Sources: Corky Messner's 2020 campaign website, "Home," accessed August 25, 2020; YouTube, "My USA Plan," August 12, 2020; Corky Messner's 2020 campaign website, "About," accessed August 25, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate New Hampshire in 2020.


Noteworthy primary endorsements

This section includes noteworthy endorsements issued in the primary, added as we learn about them. Click here to read how we define noteworthy primary endorsements. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Click links below for endorsement lists from candidates' websites, where available.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Bolduc Messner
Elected officials
President Donald Trump (R)[4] ✔
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) ✔
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) ✔
Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) ✔
Individuals
2016 Republican presidential candidate/former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) ✔
Former Senate Republican primary candidate William O'Brien ✔
Former U.S. Sen. Bob Smith (R-N.H.) ✔
Former N.H. Republican Party Chairman Wayne MacDonald ✔
Former N.H. Republican Party treasurer Rob Kasper ✔
Organizations
Combat Veterans for Congress PAC ✔
SEAL PAC ✔
Senate Conservatives Fund ✔
National Association for Gun Rights ✔

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Gerard Beloin Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Don Bolduc Republican Party $1,076,114 $1,043,933 $32,181 As of December 31, 2020
Andy Martin Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Bryant Messner Republican Party $7,150,053 $7,091,753 $58,300 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020: Republican primary polls
Poll Date Bolduc Messner Other Don't know/Not sure Margin of error Sample size Sponsor
University of New Hampshire Aug. 28-Sept. 1, 2020 31% 52% 0% 17% ± 3.7 698 --



Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Bolduc

"Fiscal Responsibility" - Bolduc campaign ad, released August 31, 2020
"The President" - Bolduc campaign ad, released August 25, 2020
"The Fallen" - Bolduc campaign ad, released August 21, 2020
"Socialist Pansies" - Bolduc campaign ad, released August 12, 2020
"The Next Hill" - Bolduc campaign ad, released August 10, 2020


Messner

"President Trump Introduces Corky Messner!" - Messner campaign ad, released September 2, 2020
"Change" - Messner campaign ad, released August 29, 2020
"My USA Plan" - Messner campaign ad, released August 12, 2020
"Small Businesses" - Messner campaign ad, released June 17, 2020
"Leader" - Messner campaign ad, released May 7, 2020


Primaries in New Hampshire

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[7][8][9]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 10 New Hampshire counties—30 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Coos County, New Hampshire 8.89% 17.54% 18.19%
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 0.20% 1.12% 3.73%
Sullivan County, New Hampshire 2.58% 13.27% 17.93%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Hampshire with 46.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 31 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Democratic with the exception of the 2000 presidential election.[14]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 10 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 14.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[17][18]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 145 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 101 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 59 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 103 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 12.9 points.


Election history

2016

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMaggie Hassan 48% 354,649
     Republican Kelly Ayotte Incumbent 47.9% 353,632
     Independent Aaron Day 2.4% 17,742
     Libertarian Brian Chabot 1.7% 12,597
Total Votes 738,620
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

2014

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJeanne Shaheen Incumbent 51.5% 251,184
     Republican Scott Brown 48.2% 235,347
     N/A Scatter 0.3% 1,628
Total Votes 488,159
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ayotte was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated Paul W. Hodes (D), Chris Booth (Independent) and Ken Blevens (Libertarian).[19]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKelly Ayotte 60.1% 273,218
     Democratic Paul W. Hodes 36.8% 167,545
     Independent Chris Booth 2% 9,194
     Libertarian Ken Blevens 1% 4,753
Total Votes 454,710

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named nhpr
  2. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Messner, Bryant 'Corky' S.," accessed August 26, 2020
  3. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  4. ↑ WMUR, "Trump endorses Messner, tweets he’ll be 'fantastic US Senator,'" June 12, 2020
  5. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  7. ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed April 25, 2023
  8. ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  9. ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State,"Voting in Party Primaries," accessed April 25, 2023
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ 270towin.com, "New Hampshire," accessed June 1, 2017
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  17. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  18. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  19. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


New Hampshire's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Maggie Hassan (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Democratic Party (4)


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