Mixed views on McCarthy's prospects as Boehner's successor
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September 28, 2015
Opinions on California Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R) ability to lead House Republicans after Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) steps down as House speaker at the end of October are mixed. A Ballotpedia survey of 102 Republican political insiders—including strategists, pollsters, media consultants, grassroots activists, lobbyists and interest groups operatives—and 71 such Democrats found both parties split on how serious a blow Boehner’s resignation was to House Republicans.
Some of the Insiders who gave comments in response to that question gave their candid assessment of McCarthy, who, as the majority leader and number two Republican in the House, is generally considered most likely to replace Boehner. Those Insiders with a more upbeat assessment of McCarthy’s potential tended to believe that the impact of Boehner’s departure would be “not too serious.” One GOP Insider said, “If Kevin McCarthy is the successor, then Boehner's resignation has little effect. McCarthy understands the need to govern from the center-right. If a more extreme member of the House succeeds Boehner, then everything comes to a standstill until January 2017.” Another GOP Insider acknowledged that “Boehner was a check on the more destabilizing factions in the party and the agenda will now shift to the right a bit, but the fundamentals have not changed much.” The Insider added that the outgoing speaker “was not particularly effective in managing the President and awful at managing the public relations aspects of the job, so McCarthy has a low bar to reach to get over. If he can package and communicate the conservative agenda in ways that Boehner never could, he might be extremely effective.”
In contrast, those who thought that Boehner’s exit was a “serious” blow to the House Republicans were predictably more concerned about McCarthy’s capacity to step into the speaker’s shoes. As one influential Republican put it, “Boehner has been the glue that has held the GOP Conference together. McCarthy is politically talented, but is better at positioning himself than actually leading. He lacks Boehner's skills, deep friendships and breath [sic] of experience. He is too prone to placate the nuts as opposed to confronting them. He has a lot to learn.” Echoed another GOP Insider, “McCarthy has been in the House 9 years—very capable but question about [his] readiness.”
A Democratic Insider who weighed in on the Boehner succession predicted that House Republicans faced a challenge, no matter whom they chose as their next speaker. “I know they think McCarthy has a better chance of pulling their caucus together, but their bigger problem is the math needed to pass things. This will not solve that problem,” maintained a Democratic Insider.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
