California 2009 ballot propositions
On the ballot
|Proposition 1A||Taxes||Prop 1A combines a 4-year tax hike of about $16 billion with a state spending cap|
|Proposition 1B||Budget||Modification of California Proposition 98 (1998) to free up money for state's budget overruns.|
|Proposition 1C||Budget||Sell rights to future lottery proceeds as a way of raising some cash now for state budget.|
|LRSS||Proposition 1D||Budget||Asks voters to approve taking money from Prop 10 in 1998 for purposes not allowed in that 1998 vote.|
|LRSS||Proposition 1E||Budget||Asks voters to take money from Prop 63 for purposes not allowed in that 2004 vote.|
|Proposition 1F||Budget||No pay raises for state legislators in years when there is a state budget deficit|
Public opinion polling
- The Field Poll conducted a public opinion research survey between February 20 and March 1 to assess the current state of public opinion regarding the six budget-related measures on the May 19 ballot. A Sacramento Bee report notes that the poll question on Prop 1A "omitted the fact that it would trigger $16 billion in tax hikes."
- A Public Policy Institute of California poll that concluded in late March showed declining support for 5 of the 6 budget measures. Mark Baldassare of PPIC characterized the poll results as indicating, "Voters' disappointment with the state's elected leaders is deep, and the temptation to send a message by voting down these propositions is strong."
- On April 20-21, SurveyUSA conducted a poll of 1,300 California adults for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. 15% of the registered voters they spoke with had already cast their vote. They concluded, "As early voting begins on six state of California ballot propositions, opposition is growing to 5 of the 6 measures."
- Field conducted a second poll between April 16-26 that indicates that "voters strongly oppose" five of the six budget measures on the May 19 ballot, including Prop 1A. According to Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, "The majority of voters just doesn't believe what is being sold to them. The skepticism extends up and down the ballot. Voters feel the Legislature isn't doing its job, hasn't been able to work with the governor and is just passing these things on to them."
- PPIC conducted its second poll on the propositions between April 27-May 4. This poll shows growing opposition to five of the six measures. Worse news, from the point-of-view of supporters, is the poll's finding that "the more voters learn about the measures, the more likely they are to want to vote them down."
|1A||Field||February 20-March 1||57% yes/21% no||PPIC||Late March||39% yes/46% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||29% yes/42% no|
|1B||Field||February 20-March 1||53% yes/30% no||PPIC||Late March||44% yes/41% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||42% yes/37% no|
|1C||Field||February 20-March 1||47% yes/39% no||PPIC||Late March||37% yes/50% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||23% yes/41% no|
|1D||Field||February 20-March 1||48% yes/36% no||PPIC||Late March||39% yes/46% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||37% yes/39% no|
|1E||Field||February 20-March 1||57% yes/23% no||PPIC||Late March||47% yes/37% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||32% yes/41% no|
|1F||Field||February 20-March 1||77% yes/13% no||PPIC||Late March||81% yes/13% no||SurveyUSA||April 20-21||32% yes/34% no|
Voter turnout predictions
- In contrast to the 78% voter turnout in November 2008 in San Mateo County, elections manager David Tom says he expects a much lower turnout for the May 19 election, in the vicinity of 30-35%.
- Ventura County Assistant Registrar of Voters Tracy Saucedo said on May 15 that about a third of voters who had been issued mail-in ballots had returned them, or about 13% of Ventura County's 422,342 registered voters. This rate of voting is about the same as the June 2008 ballot proposition election, in which a total of 29.5% of voters in the county ultimately voted.
- Fresno County Clerk Victor Salazar said, ""I just don't see any driving force that's going to bring out the voters." He predicts that turnout in the county will come to 25% of registered voters. It was 72% in November.
Not on 2009 ballot
Other ballot propositions that had been under discussion but which ultimately did not appear on the May ballot were:
- California Senate Constitutional Amendment 13 (2009)
- California Assembly Bill 583 (2009)
- California End the Two-Thirds Requirement Amendment (2010)
- California Assembly Bill 220 (2009).
The Maldonado amendments
Interview with Maldonado
State senator Abel Maldonado wanted several new constitutional amendments in exchange for his vote on a budget package that included $14.3 billion in tax increases. One of those amendments went on the May 2009 ballot, and one went on the June 8, 2010 ballot.
The propositions Maldonado negotiated for are:
- Complete official California Voter Guide to all seven statewide propositions
- Secretary of State's list of the 7 ballot measures
- California Secretary of State's announcement about May 19 ballot measures
- Current California initiatives
- At last: A budget deal
- AM Alert: The Coming Ballot Fight
- Smart Voter page on the six May 19 ballot propositions
- Stakes high for cluster of budget initiatives
- Strange times for Democrats looking at May 19 vote
- Another California tax revolt?
- Running down the six statewide ballot propositions
- California voters ready to join tax revolt
- Los Angeles Times, "With budget stalemate over, next move is up to California voters," February 20, 2009
- Los Angeles Times, "May 19 election deadlines already drawing near," February 20, 2009
- San Diego Union-Tribune, "State budget springs a leak," March 14, 2009
- Sacramento Bee, "Field Poll shows early backing for budget items on ballot," March 4, 2009
- Field Poll results for initial polling on six budget measures on May 19 ballot
- Sacramento Bee, "Budget ballot measures face uphill fight," March 26, 2009
- Public Policy Institute of California, "Special Election Ballot Propositions Face Tough Road," March 25, 2009
- SurveyUSA, "One Month From California Special Election, Opposition Grows to 5 of 6 Ballot Measures," April 22, 2009
- Sacramento Bee, "Field Poll: California voters oppose five of six May 19 ballot measures," April 19, 2009 (dead link)
- Mercury News, "Even as California's budget worsens, prospects for money-raising ballot measures seem dim," May 7, 2009
- KCBS-TV, "Smaller Turnout Expected for Calif. Special Election," April 25, 2009
- Ventura County Star, "Few county votes expected on ballot propositions," May 17, 2009
- Fresno Bee, "Tuesday ballot measures inspire apathy," May 16, 2009
- Los Angeles Times, "The Next Special Election: April? May? June?," February 9, 2009
- Inside Bay Area, "At last, a budget deal"
- Sacramento Bee, "Maldonado's price for budget vote: 3 constitutional amendments," February 19, 2009