Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Republican Tom Corbett, the state's Attorney General, defeated Democrat Dan Onorato, Chief Executive for Allegheny County. The incumbent, Democratic Governor Ed Rendell was term-limited.

In the May 18, 2010 primary elections, Onorato faced three other Democratic hopefuls and won with just over 45%. Among GOP candidates, Corbett had a single opponent in State Representative Samuel Rohrer, whom he defeated 2-to-1.

The state, already classed as a 2012 battleground, was going to a set a precedent regardless of the gubernatorial outcome. Corbett became the first Attorney General to win the governorship in a state where many have tried. Had Onorato been victorious on November 2nd, that would have ended of a 64 year span in which Pennsylvania's executive office switched party controls every eight years like clockwork.[1]

November 2, 2010 general election results

As of December 2, 2010, results were official.[2]

Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Corbett/Jim Cawley 54.5% 2,172,763
     Democratic Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin 45.5% 1,814,788
Total Votes 3,987,551
Election Results Via: Pennsylvania Department of State

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor-elect Tom Corbett will be inaugurated as Pennsylvania's 46th Governor on January 18, 2011. Leading the inaugural committee are Republican activist Robert Asher and Jones-Day managing partner Laura Ellsworth.

Corbett has said he will form a non-profit to solicit donations and pay for the inauguration.

Transition team

In a November 10, 2010 press conference, Governor-elect Corbett announced his top priority will be balancing Pennsylvania's budget and resolving a projected $4 billion budget.[3]

Helming the transition team will e co-chairs Christine Toretti, RNC member and chief executive of S.W. Jack Drilling Co.; Jack Barbour, CEO of Pittsburgh based Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney; and William Sasso, chairman of Philadelphia law firm Stradley, Ronon, Stevens & Young and a long-time GOP fundraiser.

Leslie Gromis-Baker, a political director for former-Governor Tom Ridge will co-direct the transition along with Tom Paese, Ridge's Secretary for the Office of Administration.

Charles Kopp, another Republican fundraiser, will act as legal counsel to the transition. Corbett's campaign manager, Brian Nutt, will manage the transition chef of staff. Corbett's long time spokesman, Kevin Harley, who worked for Corbett in the Attorney General's office and on his campaign, is also moving to the transition team.

The current position of Corbett's transition is that all staff will be volunteers.

May 18, 2010 primary

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[4]
Candidates Percentage
Joseph M. Hoeffel (D) 12.7%
Green check mark.jpg Dan Onorato (D) 45.1%
Jack Wagner (D) 24.2%
Anthony Hardy Williams (D) 18.1%
Total votes 1,018,496
2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[5]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Tom Corbett (R) 68.8%
Samuel E. Rohner (R) 31.3%
Total votes 857,142

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Pennsylvania
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[6] Lean Republican
Congressional Quarterly Politics[7] Leans Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Likely Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[9] Leans Republican
The Rothenberg Political Report[10] Lean Republican
Overall Call Republican

Changes

7. Larry J. Sabato moved race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" as of October 24th.

6. Rothenberg moved races from "Republican Favored" to "Lean Republican" as of October 24th.

5. Rasmussen moved race from "Solid GOP" to "Leans Republican" following October 21st polling.

4. Rasmussen moved race from "Leans Republican" to "Solid GOP" on October 13, 2010.

3. Rothenberg moved races from "Lean Republican" to "Republican Favored" in its October 1st ratings.

2. Cook Political Report moved race from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican" in its September 30th ratings.

1. Rasmussen moved race from "Leans GOP" to "Solid GOP" following September 1st polling.

Polling

CNN/Time

2010 Race for Pennsylvania Governor - CNN/Time Opinion Polls
Date Reported Corbett (R) Onorato (D) Other Don't Know
September 16-21, 2010[11] 52% 44% 3% 2%
(Sample)[12] n=741 MoE=+/- 3.5% p=0.05

Rasmussen Reports

As the field narrowed in the early part of the year, Corbett had little trouble in leading all potential Democratic opponents. The emergence of Onorato as the clear Democratic nominee did not help boost Democratic numbers, and Corbett maintained a double-digit lead in polls for the rest of the race.

2010 Race for Pennsylvania Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Corbett (R) Onorato (D) Other Don't Know
October 28, 2010[13] 52% 43% 2% 4%
October 21, 2010[14] 50% 45% 2% 3%
October 12, 2010[15] 54% 40% 1% 5%
September 29, 2010[16] 49% 39% 2% 10%
September 13, 2010[17] 53% 41% 1% 5%
August 30, 2010[18] 50% 37% 3% 10%
August 18, 2010[19] 48% 38% 5% 9%
July 28, 2010[20] 50% 39% 3% 8%
July 14, 2010[21] 48% 38% 5% 10%
June 29, 2010[22] 49% 39% 4% 8%
June 2, 2010[23] 49% 33% 5% 13%
May 19, 2010[24] 49% 36% 4% 10%
April 15, 2010[25] 45% 36% 8% 11%
March 16, 2010[26] 46% 29% 7% 17%
February 10, 2010[27] 52% 26% 5% 17%
December 14, 2009[28] 44% 28% 7% 21%
(Sample)[29] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Pennsylvania Governor
Nominee Affiliation
Dan Onorato Democrat
Tom Corbett Republican
Marakay Rogers Libertarian (write-in)
John Krupa - withdrew 8/16/10 Constitution
Richard Gordon Independent
Robert Allen Mansfield Independent
Brian Nevins Socialist Workers Party (write-in)
George Donald "Don" DeHaven (write-in)
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Democratic

Republican

Background

In the run-up to the mid-May primary, Dan Onorato had a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, taking 36% of the vote in a field where no other candidate reached double digits.[30][31] However, even as his party's nomination was within sight, Onorato trailed his general election opponent, Republican Tom Corbett, by six points.[32]

With the primaries behind them, Corbett and Onorato's numbers still showed the Republican enjoying a healthy lead. At the halfway point of the summer, Onorato needed to make up ten points to catch his competition. Rasmussen found the two men split most of the potential vote 48% to 38%, with just 5% going for a third party candidate.[33] Quinnipiac echoed this, finding voters preferring Corbett over Onorato, 44% to 37%.[34] Tellingly, Rasmussen found Corbett still had ten points on his rival only days after Corbett made controversial comments on unemployment benefits and the willingness of beneficiaries to look for work.[35] In the same round of polling, Rasmussen also found Pennsylvania voters like Pat Toomey over Joe Sestak for the U.S. Senate seat[36], all of which might, together, indicate cause for guarded optimism among Keystone Republicans.

Thus, the 10% of likely voters who were undecided by the fall were the key to determining November's outcome. Corbett picked up over 80% of GOP support, led among male and female voters, and got just over 20% support among Democrats. With Onorato only garnering 62% of the vote among self-identified Democrats, turning swing voters was vital strategy for him.

Marked voter dissatisfaction with incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell hurt Onorato. At the same time, Corbett had better name recognition and had voter confidence on the driving issue in Pennsylvania in 2010 - that of relieving economic woes. At the same time newly christened Democrat Arlen Specter was seeing the highest negatives on job performance of his tenure as a member of Congress - 57% of voters give him a thumbs down. Arizona's immigration law is also popular on the ground in Pennsylvania, with many citizens supporting similar legislation to come out of Harrisburg. The Obama Administration's position on the controversial law threatened to trickle down and further damage Democratic hopes.

Political Landscape

Both of Pennsylvania's United States Senate seats are held by Democrats, one of whom (Arlen Specter) was elected as Republican. Pennsylvania's delegation to the U.S. House is comprised of 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans. The current governor, Ed Rendell, is a Democrat.

2006 Results

Candidate Votes Percent of total
Edward Rendell (D) 2,470,517 60.4%
Lynn Swann (R) 1,622,135 39.6%



Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[37][38]
Candidates Percentage
Thomas Ridge (R) 57.42%
Ivan Itkin (D) 31.03%
Peg Luksik (C) 10.44%
Ken Krawchuk (L) 1.11%
Total votes 3,024,941
2002 Gubernatorial Results[39][40]
Candidates Percentage
Ed Rendell (D) 53.41%
Mike Fisher (R) 44.37%
Ken Krawchuk (L) 1.14%
Michael Morrill (G) 1.07%
Total votes 3,581,989
2006 Gubernatorial Results[41][42]
Candidates Percentage
Ed Rendell (D) 60.31%
Lynn Swan (R) 39.60%
(write-in) 0.08%
Total votes 4,096,077



Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 46.43%
Al Gore (D) 50.60%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 48.42%
John Kerry (D) 50.92%
2008 Presidential Results[43]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 44.15%
Barack Obama (D) 54.47%
1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 36.13%
Bill Clinton (D) 45.15%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 39.97%
Bill Clinton (D) 49.17%

External links

Campaign Sites

Democratic

Republican

See also

References

  1. Washington Post, "Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates are on a national stage," September 2, 2010
  2. Secretary of the Commonwealth, Division of Elections, "Unofficial Returns: Governor," updated November 12, 2010 at 18"25, accessed November 12, 2010, November 30, 2010, and December 23, 2010
  3. The Philadelphia Inquirer, "Gov.-elect Tom Corbett announces members of transition team," November 11, 2010
  4. Pennsylvania Department of State, 2010 General Primary - Official Returns, accessed July 20, 2010
  5. Pennsylvania Department of State, 2010 General Primary - Official Returns, accessed July 20, 2010
  6. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  7. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  8. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  9. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  10. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  11. CNN/Time, “Colorado, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin”, September 22, 2010
  12. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  13. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) Remains Ahead of Onorato (D)”, October 31, 1010
  14. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett’s (D) Lead Over Onorato (R) Drops”, October 24, 1010
  15. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett(R) Is Still in the Driver’s Seat”, October 15, 1010
  16. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) Reaches Highest Level of Support Yet Against Onorato (D)”, October 2, 1010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 49%, Onorato (D) 39%”, September 16, 1010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 50% Onorato (D) 37%”, September 1, 1010
  19. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 48%, Onorato (D) 38%”, August 18, 1010
  20. Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Pennsylvania Governor: Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 50%, Onorato (D) 39%”, August 2, 1010
  21. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 48%, Onorato (D) 38%”, July 16, 2010
  22. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 49%, Onorato (D) 39%“, July 5, 2010
  23. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett 49%, Onorato 33%“, June 5, 2010
  24. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett 49%, Onorato 36%“, May 21, 2010
  25. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) Still Leads, Onorato (D) Up“, April 20, 2010
  26. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: GOP’s Corbett Still Leads“, March 19, 2010
  27. Rasmussen Reports, “Pennsylvania Governor: GOP’s Corbett Well Head of Three Potential Opponents“, February 11, 2010
  28. Rasmussen Reports, “2010 Pennsylvania Governor: GOP Has Early Edge But Race Wide-Open“, December 10, 2009
  29. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  30. Quinnipiac, "Sestak Gains On Specter Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Onorato Tops Field Of Unknowns In Governor's Primary," May 4, 2010
  31. Quinnipiac, "Specter-Sestak Dem Primary Down To The Wire, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Onorato Leads Dem Governor Primary ," May 17, 2010
  32. Quinnipiac, "Sestak Surges Against Toomey In November Matchup, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Corbett Has Small Lead In Governor's Race ," May 13, 2010
  33. Rasmussen Reports, "Pennsylvania Governor: Corbett (R) 48%, Onorato (D) 38%," July 16, 2010
  34. Quinnipiac, "Independents Key As Corbett Leads In Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Approve Of Arizona Immigration Law 2-1 ," July 13, 2010
  35. PennLive.com, "Corbett leads Onorato by 10 points in latest Rasmussen poll," July 16, 2010
  36. Real Clear Politics, "PA Sen Poll: Toomey Holds 7-Point Lead," July 19, 2010 (dead link)
  37. US Election Atlas, “1998 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Pennsylvania”
  38. Pennsylvania Department of State. Bureau of Commissions, Elections and Legislation, “Official 1998 General Election Results Governor”
  39. US Election Atlas, “2002 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Pennsylvania”
  40. Pennsylvania Department of State. Bureau of Commissions, Elections and Legislation, “Official 2002 General Election Results Governor”
  41. US Election Atlas, “2006 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Pennsylvania”
  42. Pennsylvania State Election Board, “2006 General Election Results“
  43. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010