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Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing - February 1, 2016
From Ballotpedia
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Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential Briefing was sponsored by the Leadership Project for America. | ||||
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Monday's Leading Stories
- The first primary contest of the presidential election takes place today in Iowa. According to senior writer Jim Barnes, the Republican field may deliver a record turnout to the Iowa caucuses, which would benefit frontrunner Donald Trump. Some political commentators have identified 135,000 or lower as the number of caucus-goers Ted Cruz would need to win the state. Turnout is expected to similarly impact the Democratic outcome. Although Bernie Sanders is unlikely to draw the record number of caucus-goers seen in Iowa in 2008, he is also relying on a higher turnout to defeat Hillary Clinton. (Ballotpedia, Politico)
- In its final poll before the Iowa caucuses on Monday, The Des Moines Register found Donald Trump five points ahead of Ted Cruz, 28 percent to 23 percent. “Donald Trump could win Iowa. But he has little room for error. He is almost no one's second choice,” said Republican strategist Stuart Stevens. (The Des Moines Register)
- With 45 percent support, Hillary Clinton has a three-point lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register. Political strategist David Axelrod said, "Turnout is everything. If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie.” (The Des Moines Register)
- The New York Times endorsed Hillary Clinton on Saturday. “Hillary Clinton is the right choice for the Democrats to present a vision for America that is radically different from the one that leading Republican candidates offer — a vision in which middle-class Americans have a real shot at prosperity, women’s rights are enhanced, undocumented immigrants are given a chance at legitimacy, international alliances are nurtured and the country is kept safe,” the editorial board wrote. (The New York Times)
- John Kasich was also endorsed by The New York Times after the editorial board rejected Donald Trump for his ignorance of national security and global trade and Ted Cruz for being more about “ambition” than “constitutional principles.” They wrote that Kasich, “though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race. And Mr. Kasich is no moderate. As governor, he’s gone after public-sector unions, fought to limit abortion rights and opposed same-sex marriage.” (The New York Times)
Democrats
- Because Martin O’Malley is unlikely to reach the viability threshold of 15 percent in all precincts in Iowa, his backers may have to shift their support to another candidate. According to a survey from Public Policy Polling released on Friday, 57 percent of Martin O’Malley’s supporters would choose Bernie Sanders as their second choice. Another 27 percent would support Hillary Clinton. (New Republic, The Hill)
Hillary Clinton
- In a press release on Saturday, Hillary Clinton’s campaign called for the next Democratic debate to take place in Flint, Michigan. “We should use the spotlight of the presidential campaign to keep the focus on Flint, and to lift up the historic underlying issues that Flint and too many other predominantly low-income communities of color across America are struggling with every day,” Clinton’s campaign chair John Podesta said. (Mic)
- The State Department released another batch of Clinton’s emails while secretary of state on Friday. It also confirmed that 22 of these emails were classified as “Top Secret” and would not be released. Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon said, “This appears to be overclassification run amok.” According to ABC News, “Department responses for classification infractions could include counseling, warnings or other action, officials said. They wouldn't say if Clinton or senior aides who've since left government could face penalties.” (U.S. News & World Report)
- Billionaire George Soros donated $6 million to the pro-Clinton Priorities USA Action super PAC in December 2015. His contribution, along with those made by Haim and Cheryl Saban, Laure Woods and Donald Sussman, accounted for approximately two-fifths of the organization’s fundraising total in 2015. (The Hill)
Martin O'Malley
- Former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) donated $50,000 to Generation Forward last September, according to new financial filings. The pro-O’Malley super PAC started 2016 with $189,000 and has spent most of it. (USA Today)
- O’Malley said over the weekend that he would not instruct his precinct captains to support Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders if he was not viable during the Iowa caucuses. He said that many of his supporters have told him, “I’m caucusing for you and if we are not viable, I’m going home. ... This is a democratic process, people make their own free choices, but it’s my sense…there’s not a whole lot of enthusiasm going into the second [round] for the other two.” (Politico)
Bernie Sanders
- Bernie Sanders’ campaign announced on Sunday that it had raised more than $20 million in January through 770,000 contributions. (The Washington Post)
- On Sunday, Sanders’ campaign opened a new state headquarters in Louisiana as part of its “commitment to a 50-state strategy.” (The Times-Picayune)
- A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security announced on Saturday that Sanders had requested Secret Service protection. With large crowd sizes, such as the 20,000-person rally held in Minnesota last week, Sanders will likely qualify for the detail. (CNN)
Republicans
Jeb Bush
- Jeb Bush criticized Marco Rubio for “whining” in response to ads opposing Rubio on Sunday. Bush said, “If you can't handle that, then how you gonna deal with a unified Democratic Party that will go out to try to destroy you? And be president of the United States? This is a tough job. This isn't bean bag. Everybody's gotta get a grip." He added, “You don't think that the Republican nominee is gonna get the bark scraped off him by the Clinton machine? This is minor league baseball, man." (U.S. News & World Report)
- Bush received endorsements from three former governors on Friday: Frank Keating (R-Okla.), Dirk Kempthorne (R-Idaho) and Lincoln Almond (R-R.I.). "The times are too turbulent to choose a captain who has never paddled a boat. We need a mature and strong man at the helm. Jeb is that man,” Keating said. (Bloomberg)
- Times Union compiled a list of the 25 top donors to the Bush-backing Right to Rise super PAC on Friday. The list includes billionaire Miguel Fernandez and investors Helen O. Schwab and William Oberndorf. (Times Union)
Ben Carson
- On Friday, Ben Carson criticized the Fox News moderators for not giving him equal time during last week’s Republican debate. “It would be nice if the moderators tried to be a little more equitable. I understand they want to stoke controversy and they know that I probably won’t get into a big fight with someone, so they’d rather go some place they can stir up a fight,” Carson said. His campaign later recommended a more “collegial format” with a longer period of time to answer each question. (The Hill, The Blaze)
- Carson was asked on Friday if he would place the laws of his Christian faith above the laws of the U.S. government. He answered, “In my case, I have strong faith in God and I live by godly principles … Fortunately, our Constitution, the supreme law of our land, was designed by men of faith. And it has a Judeo-Christian foundation. Therefore, there is no conflict there. So it is not a problem.” (TIME)
- Politico reported on Sunday that 2016 Committee, a super PAC supporting Carson, earned its largest source of income from renting its mailing list, rather than any individual contributor. The 2016 Committee has also already spent $9.4 million of the $10 million it raised in 2015. (Politico, The Hill)
Chris Christie
- While campaigning in Iowa on Saturday, Chris Christie said that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio “won't tell you the truth.” He continued, “They stood there [at the Republican debate] and tried to tell you that what you saw and what you heard, you didn't see and you didn't hear. That they didn't change their positions at all. Sen. Rubio in particular." Christie made a similar point in an interview on MSNBC on Friday. He said that while he has evolved on positions, "I admit it and they don't. That's the difference." (Mother Jones, NJ.com)
- On Saturday, Christie presented himself as the responsible choice to Iowa voters. He said, “We need to pick a commander-in-chief who will make us proud of the vote we made, who will not embarrass us, who will not make us feel less than what we are and what we have always been. Here’s what I promise you: I’ll never embarrass you. I’ll never make you feel ashamed of the vote you made.” (The Wall Street Journal)
- Hedge fund manager Steve Cohen donated $2 million to the pro-Christie super PAC America Leads at the end of 2015, according to recent financial filings. (USA Today)
Ted Cruz
- Ted Cruz’s campaign sent mailers to Iowans this week accusing them of committing a “voting violation” and grading them and their neighbors on their voting history. Iowa Sec. of State Paul Pate (R) condemned the mailer: “Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for President campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law.” (CNN)
- Cruz’s campaign announced on Friday that it ended 2015 with $19 million cash on hand. (The Texas Tribune)
- Cruz released an ad in Iowa on Friday calling Marco Rubio “the Republican Obama.” Rubio campaign spokesman Joe Pounder responded, “Considering that he [Cruz] stood with Barack Obama just months ago to weaken our intelligence programs, this ad is another in a litany of examples of Ted Cruz desperately saying or doing anything to try to win an election." (The Hill)
Carly Fiorina
- Carly Fiorina campaigned throughout Iowa this weekend. “I’m talking to every voter I can, and I tell them what I’m going to do and they walk away saying, 'I’m going to caucus for you. That’s how you do it in Iowa,” Fiorina said of her campaign strategy. (The Des Moines Register)
Jim Gilmore
- In a radio interview on Friday, Jim Gilmore said he would call it a “victory” if he received one vote in Iowa. “A single vote, I’ll consider it a victory. Because I’ve told the press that I couldn’t compete in Iowa because of the high expense of the process. So, you know, if all of a sudden, what amounts to a write-in vote basically, if people decide that they actually think I’m the right person to be the president, I’d be grateful for their support and I want your listeners to know that,” Gilmore said. (BuzzFeed)
Mike Huckabee
- On Friday, Mike Huckabee said Ted Cruz was not trustworthy. “[W]hen a person changes views time after time and is always moving with the political wind vane, when a person is a thermometer instead of a thermostat, that person’s not a leader. And no, you can’t trust them,” Huckabee said, later adding that Cruz fit this description. (Politico)
- Huckabee also criticized Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton on Sunday for her private email account and campaigning tactics. He said, “Bernie [Sanders] has shown willingness to jump out there not only draw big crowds, but to talk to those crowds, to answer their questions, to speak to their issues. Hillary doesn’t make that many appearances. When she does, they’re totally scripted. It’s all theatrics. There’s no authenticity about her events that really aren’t just a true town hall where any Tom, Dick or Harry can sit down and ask her a question that hasn’t been carefully vetted and screened and properly assured that it won’t in anyway to put her on the spot.” (Breitbart)
- Huckabee denied on Sunday that he would endorse Donald Trump after a Trump rally was scheduled in Little Rock, Arkansas, this week. He said, "I think that kind of stuff's being planted by other candidates because they want to say Huckabee's really not serious. Well, I'm dead serious. We are not endorsing anybody. Not this week. I have no intention of being anywhere near Little Rock on Wednesday. That's not where my schedule has me and whoever makes that up has absolutely zero, I mean, zero knowledge of what's going on." (Arkansas Online)
John Kasich
- New Day for America, a super PAC backing John Kasich, announced on Saturday that it received $4 million in contributions from six donors over the past two weeks. (Politico)
- While the rest of the Republican field was making its final appeals to Iowa voters over the weekend, Kasich was campaigning in New Hampshire. He told voters that he was an “independent guy” running outside of the “establishment lane” and “anti-establishment lane.” (CBS News)
Rand Paul
- Rand Paul emphasized his Christian faith and the importance of compassion while campaigning in Iowa on Friday. “I think [Republicans] also need to be a party that shows that we have compassion for people who are down on their luck. Do we need to be big spending liberals on this? No. But I think we need to have compassion for people who are down on their luck and aren’t doing well. ... Most of us are Christians and believe in redemption and believe in a second chance,” Paul said. (TIME)
- Three super PACs supporting Paul – Concerned American Voters, America's Liberty PAC and Purple PAC – together raised $4.6 million in the third and fourth quarters of 2015. (Politico)
- Former presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) made his first campaign appearance on behalf of his son at the University of Iowa on Sunday. “We have every reason to be optimistic. We cannot listen to polls,” he said. (TIME)
Marco Rubio
- Marco Rubio released a nearly 30 minute-ad featuring footage from a recent town hall in Waterloo, Iowa. It was scheduled to air over the weekend on Fox and ABC affiliates throughout the state. (Politico)
- In the final quarter of 2015, Rubio’s campaign brought in $14.2 million. Buttressed by two $2.5 million donations from billionaires Paul Singer and Ken Griffin, the pro-Rubio Conservative Solutions PAC also raised $14.4 in the third and fourth quarters of 2015. (The Washington Post)
- In an interview on Sunday, Rubio said Ted Cruz was too “calculating” to defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election. “This whole notion Ted has that he's the only conservative, I think as people learn more about his record, they'll realize what he really is very calculating. He's always looking to take whatever position it takes to win votes or raise money, and we're not going to beat Hillary Clinton with someone that will say or do anything to get elected,” he said. (CNN)
Rick Santorum
- In an interview on Newsmax TV on Friday, Rick Santorum questioned whether Donald Trump was conservative across all issues. He said, “I agree with Donald Trump on a few things. One of them is immigration and I applaud him for making that the centerpiece. Another one is his focus on blue collar workers and that's another big thing. [But] on abortion he's not going to enforce [bans on] it and [same-sex] marriage and a whole host of issues.” (Newsmax)
- While campaigning in Iowa on Friday, Santorum said faith leaders should be more vocal in public. “We are under assault in this country, an assault on religious liberties, the ability to speak in public. We have a decreasing acceptance of any faith being expressed. We need to have courage to fight and fight for all truths. We are accepting what we don’t have to accept,” Santorum said. He concluded, “Be not afraid to go out there and stand for the truth.” (The Daily Nonpareil)
- Santorum said on Sunday that he intended to stay in the presidential race through, at least, the South Carolina primary on February 20. (The Des Moines Register)
Donald Trump
- While discussing Ted Cruz and his citizenship on Friday, Donald Trump called him “an anchor baby.” He said, “Ted Cruz may not be a U.S. citizen, right? But he's an anchor baby. No, he's an anchor baby – Ted Cruz is an anchor baby in Canada.” Cruz’s campaign responded, “The only anchor here is the one being dragged behind the SS New York Values, causing Donald Trump's campaign to stall out as voters learn about his affinity for Hillary Clinton and his previous statements supporting abortion.” (CNN)
- On Sunday, Trump attributed Cruz’s decline in the polls to people’s uncertainty about his eligibility to run. He said, “He's gone down very much in Iowa. But I'll tell you what – you can't nominate somebody that maybe is not going to be able to run. … I think that has a huge effect." (CBS News)
- Trump continued his assault on Cruz in an interview on ABC News, raising questions about his likability in Washington, D.C. "Here's a guy with all of these senators. Not one endorsement of Cruz, because he's a nasty guy. Nobody likes him. You can't run a country that way. It will be a total mess. It will be worse gridlock than you have right now,” Trump said. (USA Today)
- Trump said on Sunday that his frontrunner status in New Hampshire offsets the need to win Iowa. “I don't have to win it. I have a very substantial lead in New Hampshire. But I think it would be really good to win Iowa. I'd like to win Iowa,” he said. (CBS News)
Third Party Candidates
Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party)
- On Tuesday night, Gary Johnson is hosting a Google hangout where attendees can directly question him on political issues. (Examiner.com)
Jill Stein (Green Party)
- In an interview with American Herald Tribune published on Friday, Jill Stein said “pay to play protections” should be imposed to prevent lobbyist and donor influences on politicians. “If you establish that anyone who contributes, who provides campaign contributions, or who lobbies is not eligible for contracting with the government, the minute you break that umbilical cord, then the industry loses its power to corral Congress and dictate foreign policy,” Stein said. The wide-ranging interview also covered Stein’s positions on ending student debt and foreign policy. (American Herald Tribune)
See also
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Important dates in the 2016 presidential race
- Polls and Straw polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
