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This week in Ballotpedia election updates:
The top House fundraisers, dueling Trump and Biden rallies in Kentucky, and we preview state legislative races in Wisconsin and Connecticut.
Have a tip for us or see something we missed? As always, let me know at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
   
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Upcoming Dates to Know
Voter registration deadlines
October 10 - Missouri, Montana
October 12 - Idaho, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma
Early voting periods
October 10 - Arizona, Indiana, Ohio
October 15 - Georgia |
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Quick Stats
Federal
23 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. House
2 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. Senate
State
36 - Governor races
18 - Vulnerable trifectas
5 Democratic
13 Republican |
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Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
West Virginia Senate race among battlegrounds that will determine party control
Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) is one of 10 Democratic U.S. senators seeking re-election in a state Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump's 42 percentage point margin of victory over Hillary Clinton (D) in West Virginia was his second-widest nationwide.
Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate this race "Lean Democratic"; Inside Elections rates it "Tilt Democratic."
In the Nov. 6 general election, Manchin faces Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey and Libertarian nominee Rusty Hollen.
Three satellite spending groups have committed more than $14 million toward the race altogether. One Nation announced plans to spend $2.4 million supporting Morrisey, and the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $4.8 million on ads opposing Manchin. Senate Majority PAC has spent $7.4 million on ads supporting Manchin and opposing Morrisey.
Manchin won the 2010 special election by 10 percentage points over his Democratic opponent and was re-elected in 2012 with a 24 percentage point margin.
Manchin was the only Democratic senator to vote in favor of Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh was confirmed 50-48.
Currently, Republicans have a 51-seat majority in the Senate. Democrats hold 47 seats. The Senate’s two independents caucus with the Democrats.
Democrats are defending 26 of 35 Senate seats up for election this year.
Bloomberg to spend $100 million backing Democratic congressional candidates
Former New York City mayor and potential 2020 presidential contender Michael Bloomberg announced he would donate $20 million to the Senate Majority PAC, one of the principal satellite groups supporting Democrats in 2018 Senate races.
Bloomberg’s $20 million pledge comes on top of an $80 million commitment he made in June to support Democratic House candidates.
In a statement, Bloomberg said, “To be clear: I have plenty of disagreements with some Democrats, especially those who seek to make this election about impeachment. Nothing could be more irresponsible. But I believe that ‘We the People’ cannot afford to elect another Congress that lacks the courage to reach across the aisle and the independence to assert its constitutional authority.”
Axios reported that half of Bloomberg’s contributions will go to women candidates.
High-profile rallies in KY-06 hint at candidates’ rural and urban campaign strategies
Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District is getting a double dose of national political exposure, with former Vice President Joe Biden (D) joining Democratic nominee Amy McGrath at a fish and fry campaign event and President Donald Trump (R) holding a campaign rally for incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R).
The campaign stops give a glimpse of each candidate’s strategy in this toss-up race. Biden is campaigning in rural Bath County, which gave Trump 67 percent of the vote in 2016.
The president’s rally will be held at Eastern Kentucky University in a stadium with a capacity of 6,500. The venue is in Richmond, the county seat of Madison County and the District’s second most populous city. Madison County backed Trump with 63 percent of the vote.
Four public opinion polls conducted in September showed Barr and McGrath trading single-digit leads. Barr won re-election in 2016 by more than 20 percentage points.
Two red state Democrats cast differing Kavanaugh votes
Incumbent Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) cast opposing votes on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Heitkamp, frequently regarded as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the U.S. Senate, voted against confirming Kavanaugh. She released a 30-second video statement explaining her decision Sunday.
“First off, honestly, I don't think he told the truth. And even if he did, he showed himself to be too biased to be impartial,” Heitkamp said. “I voted for Neil Gorsuch, so I know there are many conservative judges who can fill this job without tearing our country apart.”
Republican state party official Jake Wilkins said, “Heidi Heitkamp made the cowardly choice to cave to Chuck Schumer.”
“Unlike Heitkamp,” Wilkins said, “Kevin Cramer will always put the people of his state above his own political interests, and that’s why they’ll support him this November.”
Manchin, the only Democrat to vote to confirm Kavanaugh, said that he had reservations but voted on the facts available.
“[B]ased on all of the information I have available to me, including the recently completed FBI report, I have found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings before him,” Manchin said.
Manchin’s Republican rival, Patrick Morrisey, criticized the timing of Manchin’s vote, saying Manchin “waited until the last possible minute after Susan Collins declared for him to take a position, effectively allowing Maine to decide how West Virginia's going to decide. We shouldn't reward that kind of cowardice."
Top U.S. House fundraisers of Q3
Campaign finance reports for the third quarter are not due to the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 15, but some campaigns have released their numbers early. The following U.S. House candidates reported raising $2 million or more in the past three months:
- Danny O’Connor (D), OH-12: $6 million
- Andrew Janz (D), CA-22: $4.3 million
- Amy McGrath (D), KY-06: $3.6 million
- Josh Harder (D), CA-10: $3.5 million
- Sharice Davids (D), KS-03: $2.7 million
- Sean Casten (D), IL-06: $2.6 million
- Elissa Slotkin (D), MI-08: $2.6 million
- Mike Levin (D), CA-49: $2.2 million
- Tom Malinowski (D), NJ-07: $2.2 million
- Kathleen Williams (D), MT-AL: $2.1 million
- Mikie Sherrill (D), NJ-02: $2 million
- Lauren Underwood (D), IL-14: $2 million
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races are facing off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Find coverage of debates held in the following races last week:
Check out the following debates happening this week:
In Nevada, Sisolak links to Sandoval and Laxalt sharpens attacks
The ad war between Nevada’s Republican and Democratic gubernatorial nominees is getting more intense.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Sisolak (D-Nev.) launched two ads Oct. 4 stating his support for education and health care policies implemented by retiring Gov. Brian Sandoval (R).
Republican nominee Adam Laxalt (R) responded Oct. 5 with an ad accusing Sisolak of corruption.
In his latest ads, Sisolak said he would preserve Medicaid expansion and a public school funding increase carried out under Sandoval. An earlier Sisolak ad referred to Sandoval by name and said Laxalt opposed Sandoval's Medicaid expansion plan.
Sandoval has said he would not endorse either candidate.
Laxalt's newest ad builds on previous spots saying Sisolak has been investigated for favoring donors with government contracts and would support tax increases.
Rhode Island state legislator loses leadership position after endorsing independent gubernatorial candidate
The Rhode Island House Republican Caucus voted Friday to remove state Rep. Patricia Morgan (R) as House Minority Leader, leaving the position vacant until the November elections.
The move came in response to Morgan’s endorsement earlier Friday of independent gubernatorial candidate Joe Trillo over GOP nominee Allan Fung.
Morgan had been minority leader since 2016. She sought the Republican gubernatorial nomination rather than running for re-election to the state House. Fung defeated Morgan in the Sept. 12 primary by a margin of 16 percentage points.
A survey of 503 likely voters by the University New Hampshire showed Fung trailing incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) by 14 percentage points, 48 percent to 34 percent.
At rally, Kobach and President Trump emphasize immigration policy
President Trump headlined an Oct. 6 rally in Topeka for Kansas GOP gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, praising the Kobach’s immigration policy. Kobach has emphasized immigration on the campaign trail.
Kobach, who earned Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary, said that since the president took office, "we’ve worked on a number of things, but the most important is stopping illegal immigration." Kobach criticized Democratic nominee Laura Kelly (D), saying Kelly had voted in support of allowing sanctuary jurisdictions in the state as a legislator.
Ohio Democratic candidates led in fundraising for statewide offices
The Democratic candidates in all four of Ohio’s statewide battleground races outraised their Republican opponents in September according to financial reports filed Oct. 3.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Richard Cordray raised $2.6 million in September to Republican nominee Mike DeWine's $2 million. DeWine has raised $17.0 million since the start of the campaign to Cordray's $12.9 million.
In the state attorney general race, Democratic nominee Steven Dettelbach raised $750,000 to Republican Dave Yost's $400,000. Overall, Dettelbach has so far raised $5.6 million to Yost's $3.5 million.
In the race for secretary of state, Democratic nominee Kathleen Clyde raised $320,000 in September to Republican nominee Frank LaRose's $260,000. LaRose has a slight edge over Clyde in overall fundraising, with $2.49 million to Clyde's $2.48 million.
In the state auditor election, Democratic nominee Zack Space raised $250,000 to Republican Keith Faber's $200,000.
Candidates are not required to indicate expenditures or candidates' cash on hand.
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races are facing off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Find coverage of debates held in the following races last week:
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Wisconsin State Senate: 18-15 Republican majority
The Wisconsin State Senate did not look vulnerable after the 2016 elections as Republicans increased their majority from 18-14 to 20-13. However, in special elections earlier this year, Democrats won two seats Donald Trump won by more than 17 percentage points in 2016. This cut the Republican majority to 18-15 ahead of the November elections, where each party has three potentially vulnerable seats on the ballot
Two of the three at-risk Republican seats voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. The third, District 5, is an open seat Trump won by 1 percentage point. Mitt Romney won the same district by 13.2 percentage points in 2012.
All three Democratic battlegrounds voted for Trump in 2016. Senate District 1, held by Caleb Frostman (D), was one of the two seats that changed party control in the 2018 special elections.
Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election between incumbent Scott Walker (R) and Democratic nominee Tony Evers (D) is expected to be competitive.
🔵 Connecticut House of Representatives: 80-71 Democratic majority
House Democrats are facing an offensive from Republicans who say the Democratic dominance of Connecticut’s government since 2011 has led to fiscal mismanagement and economic decline.
The GOP has made steady gains in the House since 2009 when they controlled just 37 of 151 seats. Democrats have an 80-71 majority heading into the November election.
There could be at least 28 competitive House races this year: 15 Democratic-held seats and 13 Republican-held seats. Republicans need to perform well in districts Hillary Clinton won to take the majority. Clinton won 33 Republican-held House districts in 2016, while Donald Trump won in seven Democratic-held districts.
Because the gubernatorial race, state Senate, and state House are all competitive, Connecticut is the only state in the country that could switch from a Democratic trifecta to a Republican trifecta on election night.
Voters in 38 states will decide 157 statewide ballot measures in November 2018. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, click here.
Medicaid expansion and health care
Voters in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and Utah will decide ballot initiatives concerning Medicaid expansion and the funding of expanded Medicaid coverage.
Voters in California, Massachusetts, and Nevada will decide other measures related to health care.
The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, was enacted in March 2010. In 2010, 2011, and 2012, voters in nine states decided on measures designed to oppose provisions of Obamacare. Except for an initiative in Ohio, the measures were referred to the ballot by state legislators.
Between 2013 and 2016, no statewide ballots had measures related to Obamacare. In 2017, voters in Maine approved a ballot measure to expanded Medicaid to persons under the age of 65 and with incomes equal to or below 138 percent of the federal poverty line. It was the first citizen initiative to implement an optional provision of Obamacare.
Here's a list of the measures related to Medicaid expansion or health care on the ballot in November 2018:
- California Proposition 4: issue $1.5 billion in state bonds to fund children's hospitals.
- California Proposition 8: require dialysis clinics to issue refunds to patients or patients' payers for revenue above 115 percent of the costs of direct patient care and health care improvements.
- Idaho Proposition 2: provide for expanded Medicaid coverage to 133 percent of the federal poverty line, but does not concern funding mechanisms for the state's share of the costs.
- Massachusetts Question 1: establish patient assignment limits for nurses.
- Montana I-185: increase tobacco taxes to provide funding for expanded Medicaid coverage, and eliminate a 2019 expiration date of existing expanded Medicaid coverage.
- Nebraska Initiative 427: provide for expanded Medicaid coverage to 138 percent of the federal poverty line, but does not concern funding mechanisms for the state's share of the costs.
- Nevada Question 4: exempt certain medical equipment from sales taxes.
- Utah Proposition 3: increase sales taxes to provide funding for expanded Medicaid coverage.
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Voters in five states will weigh in on ballot measures related to marijuana this November. These measures cover issues ranging from legalization for recreational and medicinal use, to expungement, to the definition of hemp. Let our experts talk you through them, including navigating the three competing measures on Missouri ballots.
Join us on October 16 at 1 pm ET to learn more.
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Inquire at ads@ballotpedia.org to advertise here in next week’s edition.
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Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Susan Boser, candidate for Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District
 What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?
Key responsibilities of congressional politicians involve listening to and representing all the constituents in their districts. They need to apply their capacity to craft and approve policy decisions in such a way as to serve the needs of their constituents. This approach requires working with both parties, all levels of government, and key committees to achieve these goals.
Read all of Boser’s responses →
George Brauchler, candidate for Colorado attorney general
What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?
Criminal Justice Reform. Too often the debate about criminal justice reform has deteriorated into knee jerk, quick fixes designed only to address a statistic or to minimize accountability for those who run afoul of our laws. Real reform requires changes far bolder – make naturally expiring laws be transparent in sentencing, expunge outdated records and be braver on pardons. Talk is cheap. Coloradans deserve and demand action. I have written on this topic for a national newspaper. I have advocated with our legislature for sunsetting laws and I have personally fought for a pardon for a now-former felon in our community. There is more to do, but these bold reforms are an easy and impactful place to start. I have dealt with criminal justice first hand as district attorney for the largest DA’s office in Colorado. As Attorney General, I will continue to provide leadership and resources to advance the process of real reform.
Read all of Brauchler’s responses →
Election analysis: What we're reading
- A blue wave next month could be the start of a progressive sea change Washington Post
- Bryan Dean Wright: Post-Kavanaugh, Democrats have no Plan B -- they thought the Culture War would work Fox News
- Will Anti-Trump Millennials Actually Turn Up to Vote? Vanity Fair
- Democrats’ Kavanaugh assassination is reuniting the right New York Post
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