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Hello reader!
Welcome to Ballotpedia’s Election Updates. We’re picking up where our earlier newsletter, the Heart of the Primaries, left off -- providing you with unbiased, nonpartisan news about the Nov. 6 general election. Look for Election Updates in your inbox each Wednesday.
Have a tip for us or see something we missed? As always, let me know at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
   
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Upcoming Dates to Know
Voter registration deadlines
October 8 - Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina
October 9 - Alaska, Rhode Island
Early voting periods
September 21 - Minnesota, Vermont
September 22 - New Jersey |
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Elections at a Glance
Federal
23 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. House
2 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. Senate
State
36 - Governor races
12 - Vulnerable state government trifectas
5 Democratic
7 Republican |
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Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
Alaska gubernatorial: Both major parties challenge nation's only independent governor
Alaska Gov. Bill Walker (I) is the nation’s only independent incumbent. He faces challenges from Mark Begich (D) and Mike Dunleavy (R).
Walker was first elected in 2014 with support from the state Democratic Party, which backed an Alaska First Unity Ticket with independent candidate Walker as the gubernatorial nominee and Democrat Byron Mallott as his running mate. Democrats were concerned the two could split votes and improve Republican Sean Parnell's re-election prospects. To join the ticket, Walker changed his party affiliation from Republican to independent. The Unity ticket defeated the Republican ticket by two percentage points.
Walker intended to seek the Democratic nomination this year but announced he and Mallott would run as independents when Begich announced his candidacy.
The Alaska AFL-CIO, which refused to endorse any candidate in 2014 unless there were only two in the race due to vote splitting concerns, endorsed Walker following Alaska’s Aug. 21 primaries. The Democratic Party is behind Begich and the GOP backs Dunleavy.
Trump endorses three Republicans in battleground congressional races
President Donald Trump (R) tweeted endorsements Saturday of Republican congressional candidates Keith Rothfus, Pete Sessions, and Danny Tarkanian. All three are running in battleground districts.
Following redistricting in Pennsylvania, Rothfus went from representing a district Trump won by 21 percentage points in 2016 to running for the new 17th Congressional District, which Trump won by 3 percentage points. Rothfus faces U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D), who won a special election in the old, Republican-leaning 18th Congressional District earlier this year.
Trump first endorsed Rothfus in June when Vice President Mike Pence (R) traveled to Pittsburgh to campaign for him.
Sessions, who has represented Texas’ 32nd Congressional District since 2003, is running in one of the 25 Republican-held congressional districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Sessions’ opponent is former NFL player and attorney Colin Allred (D).
Tarkanian and nonprofit director Susie Lee (D) are competing in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, an open swing seat. The current incumbent, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), is running for Senate.
Cruz and O’Rourke set for first debate Friday in Dallas
Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) meet Friday at Southern Methodist University for the first of three Texas Senate debates. The two candidates will focus on domestic policy.
Cruz and O’Rourke fought over the terms of the debates, including the number, location, and language. Cruz wanted five Friday evening debates over three months, while O’Rourke requested one debate be held in El Paso and two be conducted in Spanish.
The final two debates will be held in Houston on Sept. 30 and San Antonio on Oct. 16.
Nine new candidates named to DCCC’s Red to Blue program
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added nine Democratic candidates to its Red to Blue program based on their strong campaign infrastructure and grassroots engagement.
In total, 82 candidates have been named to the program. The newcomers are:
- Kristen Carlson (FL-15)
- Carolyn Bourdeaux (GA-07)
- Matt Longjohn (MI-06)
- Cort VanOstran (MO-02)
- Kathleen Williams (MT-AL)
- Chris Pappas (NH-01)
- Perry Gershon (NY-01)
- Todd Litton (TX-02)
- Joseph Kopser (TX-21)
Inclusion in the program gives candidates in Republican-held districts organizational and fundraising support from the DCCC.
NRCC makes $4.8 million ad buy for Comstock in VA-10
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $4.8 million on ad buys for vulnerable incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. It’s the first, and so far only, Republican satellite spending in the race.
Last month, the Congressional Leadership Fund declined to say whether it would spend money in the race.
The DCCC has spent less than half the NRCC total—$2.3 million—on Democratic nominee Jennifer Wexton. The House Majority PAC has also spent $1.9 million on her.
Virginia’s 10th is one of the 25 Republican-held congressional seats Clinton won in 2016. Comstock was re-elected by six percentage points, while Clinton won the district by 10 percentage points.
The race raters have the 10th tilting or leaning Democratic.
Nevada polls continue to show tight race between Heller and Rosen
Three polls released since August show U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) leading incumbent U.S. Sen. Dean Heller (R) by one to five percentage points, within or near the margin of error, in the Nevada Senate race.
Heller won the seat in 2012 by one percentage point and is the only incumbent Republican senator running for re-election in a state Clinton won in 2016.
DeSantis' Little League roots on display in new Florida ad
The Republican Party of Florida launched an ad Friday backing GOP gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis, the first ad supporting DeSantis since the Aug. 28 primaries, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
The ad, titled “Go to Bat”, emphasizes DeSantis’ childhood and his participation in the 1991 Little League World Series. According to Florida News Online, the spot "is an effort to soften DeSantis’ image and untether him from President Donald Trump."
According to a DeSantis press release, the state party spent $4 million to air the ad, which is slated to run for 10 days. A Spanish-language version was also produced.
Edmondson makes campaign push on education
Oklahoma gubernatorial candidate Drew Edmondson (D) released an ad Thursday in which he promised to raise teacher salaries and cut wasteful spending in classrooms.
The same day, Edmondson's social media accounts promoted a Time magazine article that said education would be a central issue in the 2018 elections. The article tied the primary victories of both Edmondson and GOP nominee Kevin Stitt to their education platforms.
Kelly, Kobach rack up cross-aisle endorsements in Kansas gubernatorial contest
In Kansas' gubernatorial contest, Laura Kelly (D) and Kris Kobach (R) each received endorsements from officials and groups associated with the other’s party.
Kelly announced endorsements from more than two dozen Republican former officeholders Thursday, including former Sen. Sheila Frahm (R) and former state Senate President Dick Bond (R). Former Sen. Nancy Kassebaum (R) endorsed Kelly Sept. 13.
Kobach has an endorsement from the Kansas State Council of Firefighters, which backed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis (D) in 2014.
Kobach and Kelly face three other candidates, including independent Greg Orman, in the November election.
Gubernatorial candidates take to the stage as debates get underway
Connecticut gubernatorial candidates Ned Lamont (D) and Bob Stefanowski (R) appeared in their first debate together Sept. 12, followed by a second debate Monday. Lamont earlier appeared in a debate with independent candidate Oz Griebel, which Stefanowski did not attend.
Lamont and Stefanowski honed their arguments, with Lamont linking Stefanowski to the president, and Stefanowski emphasizing his pledge to cut taxes. The Stefanowski campaign updated its website after the second debate with a new landing page featuring clips to emphasize his opposition to tax increases.
Another debate to watch happens Sept. 24 between Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Democratic nominee Ben Jealous. It is expected to be the only debate between the two candidates.
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Alaska House of Representatives: 22-18 Democratic majority coalition
Republicans could win Alaska’s governorship, hold their state Senate majority, and win a majority of seats in the state House and still not have a trifecta in the state.
A 22-member majority coalition—comprised of three Republicans, 17 Democrats, and two independents—controls the state House, which also has a Democratic speaker.
Republicans may have trouble taking back the chamber even if they win additional seats. Two of the three Republican defectors survived primary challenges in August and the other is running for re-election as an independent. Two more Republicans likely to join the majority coalition also won primaries to replace retiring Republican incumbents.
Four Democratic and three independent seats are vulnerable. Republicans need to win most of these seats and defend two of their own vulnerable seats to retake the chamber from the majority coalition.
🔵 New York State Senate: 32-31 Republican majority coalition
The New York Senate is perhaps the Democrats’ best chance to win control of a state legislative chamber in 2018.
Democrats won 32 of the Senate’s 63 seats in 2016, but nine of their members caucused with Senate Republicans, preventing a Democratic trifecta in New York.
In early 2018, eight of the breakaway Democrats (collectively known as the Independent Democratic Conference) rejoined the mainline Democrats. However, state Sen. Simcha Felder (D) maintained his alliance with Republicans and secured the GOP’s 32-31 majority.
There are at least 10 vulnerable Republican seats in 2018, including five where incumbents are retiring. If Democrats win a majority of seats, political observers will be watching whether another bipartisan coalition forms to keep Republicans in control. However, progressive challengers defeated six of the eight IDC members in the Sept. 13 Democratic primaries, which could limit Republican chances for another cross-party majority coalition.
Voters in 38 states will decide 153 statewide ballot measures in November. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide on. For more on ballot measures, sign up for the monthly Ballot Bulletin.
Voters in six states will decide ballot measures related to marijuana. Recreational marijuana is legal in nine states and the District of Columbia. Michigan and North Dakota could follow. In addition to recreational marijuana, Utah and Missouri could be the 32nd and 33rd state to legalize medical marijuana.
Voters in Missouri will decide between three competing medical marijuana initiatives, all of which have different taxation, revenue, home-grown marijuana, and local control provisions.
Colorado’s ballot measure, Amendment X, would repeal language from the state constitution defining industrial hemp, giving the legislature more flexibility to adapt to changes in federal law concerning industrial hemp.
Here is a list of marijuana-related measures on the 2018 general election ballot:
More than $1 million have been raised for and against the ballot measures in Michigan and Missouri. The Michigan Proposal 1 campaign has raised the most money. As of July 25, 2018, supporters of Proposal 1 had raised $1.74 million and opponents had raised $286,062.
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Douglas La Follette, Democratic candidate for Wisconsin Secretary of State
 What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
Restoring the important duties that have been removed from the Office of Secretary of State. This will make Wisconsin like the rest of the nation and be easier for people to do business here.
Read all of La Follette’s responses →
Debbie Lesko, Republican candidate for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District
 What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
1) BORDER SECURITY and NATIONAL SECURITY: We must secure our border, period. Some sections need a physical barrier like the wall, and other parts require technology and more manpower. I am committed to making sure our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have the best equipment in the world as we continue to win the war against ISIS.
2) TAXES AND REGULATIONS: I have never seen a tax I didn't want to cut and have a proud record of voting for common sense tax reforms.
3) EDUCATION: I believe education is about empowering parents to make the right choices for their children and their families.
Read all of Lesko's responses →
Election analysis: What we're reading
- As midterms loom, GOP hopes political storm weakens, changes course Washington Examiner
- It's NOT the economy, stupid! CNN
- Electorate Makeup Will Be Key to Midterm Outcome RealClearPolitics
- Internal RNC Poll: Complacent Trump Voters May Cost GOP Control of Congress Bloomberg
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