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This week in Ballotpedia election updates:
Previewing the race in Maine's 2nd, Trump hits the road to pick up Senate seats, and satellite spending shows Democratic confidence in two key House districts.
Have a tip for us or see something we missed? As always, let me know at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
   
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Upcoming Dates to Know
Voter registration deadlines
October 8 - Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina
October 9 - Alaska, Rhode Island
Early voting periods
September 27 - Illinois, North Dakota, Wyoming
October 8 - California, Iowa |
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Elections at a Glance
Federal
23 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. House
2 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. Senate
State
36 - Governor races
12 - Vulnerable trifectas
5 Democratic
7 Republican |
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Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and think you will, too.
Maine 2nd District’s history makes it a target for both parties
Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is the only Republican representing a New England district in the House of Representatives.
On Nov. 6, Poliquin faces Democratic nominee Jared Golden in an election for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
No incumbent has lost an election for the seat since 1916. Democrats represented the 2nd for 20 years until 2014, when Poliquin won his first term in the race for the open seat. Golden was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program.
Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 election by 9 percentage points, and Donald Trump (R) won it in 2016 by 10 points.
More than $7 million in satellite spending from at least eight different groups on both sides of the aisle has gone toward the race. The Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $3.1 million in airtime, focusing on ads attacking Golden on health care and taxes.
Poliquin says he has a record of improving the state's economy and protecting Social Security and Medicare. Golden refers to his background as a Marine and state representative, saying he will serve the people rather than special interests.
Golden says Poliquin has voted to cut Social Security and Medicare as well as coverage protections for those with pre-existing conditions. Poliquin said Golden is "too radical, too risky for Maine," and that Golden's health care proposals would increase taxes and lead to job loss.
Trump campaigns in three states, including two Senate pick-up opportunities
President Donald Trump (R) campaigned for congressional candidates across the country this week, holding rallies in Nevada, Missouri, and West Virginia.
In a Las Vegas rally Thursday, Trump praised incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R), who the only incumbent Republican running for re-election this year in a state Hillary Clinton won.
Trump also attended a fundraiser for Heller and Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District candidate Danny Tarkanian (R). Tarkanian, who dropped his Senate primary bid against Heller at Trump’s request, also received a $4 million combined boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund and America First Action this week.
The president traveled to Missouri Friday, where he praised GOP Senate nominee Josh Hawley (R) and characterized the race between Hawley and incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) as a vote on his presidency. Trump told supporters, “Get out in 2018, because you’re voting for me.” Trump won Missouri by 18 percentage points in 2016.
Trump traveled to West Virginia Saturday to rally for GOP Senate nominee Patrick Morrisey (R). Trump is popular in the state—he won 69 percent of the vote there in 2016—but Morrisey trails longtime political figure and incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the polls.
DCCC pulls funding in IA-03 as poll gives Finkenauer double-digit lead over incumbent
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) canceled its TV spending in the Cedar Rapids market, which covers 85 percent of Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.
The DCCC’s move comes as two recent polls show two-term incumbent Rep. Rod Blum (R) trailing state Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) by 5 to 15 percentage points.
Three race raters have moved the 1st from a toss-up to tilts or leans Democratic in the past four weeks.
National Association of Realtors spends more than $700,000 on ads in MS and NJ, endorses Donnelly in IN
The National Association of Realtors (NAR), which backs both Democratic and Republican candidates, has launched six-figure ad campaigns in Mississippi and New Jersey.
NAR spent $352,000 for incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), who faces state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy (D) in the nonpartisan special election in Mississippi in November.
In New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, the NAR spent $377,000 to back incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance (R). Lance is running against Tom Malinowski (D) for the toss-up seat.
The NAR also endorsed incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over businessman Mike Braun (R) in Indiana.
NRCC cancels spending in PA race that pits two House members against each other
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) canceled all spending—at least $3.8 million—in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District for Rep. Keith Rothfus (R).
Rothfus’ current district backed Trump in 2016 by 21 percentage points, while the newly drawn 17th District is rated a toss-up.
Rothfus faces fellow Rep. Conor Lamb (D), who won a special election in the old, Republican-leaning 18th Congressional District in March.
Congressional Leadership Fund announces $13 million in new ad spending
The Congressional Leadership Fund announced Sept. 20 it was adding five new races to its target list, reserving $13 million in ad time. The announcement brings the group's total TV ad reservations this cycle to $85 million.
The group said it would run ads supporting three GOP House incumbents and two Republican candidates running in open seats, including one currently held by a Democrat. The group also said it was allocating additional funds for ads on behalf of nine GOP incumbents it previously backed.
The announcement followed a Sept. 17 expansion of the group's voter turnout operation into 15 additional Republican-held seats with a projected cost of $2 million. The super PAC, which supports Republican candidates seeking election to the U.S. House, was founded in 2011.
Debate season has begun
General election season is kicking off with debates and candidate forums in key races across the country. Find a summary of and watch the debates held in the following races last week:
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Handling of Nassar case discussed in Michigan gubernatorial election
Michigan gubernatorial candidates Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Bill Schuette (R) are embroiled in a debate over the prosecution of serial predator Larry Nassar.
At issue is the series of events leading up to charges being filed against Nassar in November 2016. At the time, Whitmer served as Ingham County prosecutor—Nassar's county of residence—while Schuette was state attorney general.
A Republican Party of Michigan ad says Whitmer refused to prosecute Nassar on charges of sexual abuse, citing an interview with Michigan State University Chief of Police Jim Dunlap. Dunlap said Whitmer was only interested in pursuing certain charges against Nassar because they would be easier to take to trial.
Whitmer said she had asked for, but not received, police reports regarding Nassar. Chief Assistant Ingham County Prosecutor Lisa McCormick also said that the office had been waiting for police reports. Whitmer said she referred the case to Schuette's office, which eventually pursued the charges because the crimes occurred in multiple counties.
Whitmer said the case should not be discussed as part of a political campaign. Schuette said Whitmer misrepresented her role in the Nassar case and that the full story was important. The allegations have also played a role in the ongoing election for two seats on the Michigan State University Board of Regents.
Republican Governors Association hits Sisolak over property taxes in new ad
The Republican Governors Association (RGA) released its second television ad in Nevada's gubernatorial race, saying Democratic nominee Steve Sisolak would raise property taxes if elected. The ad says Republican nominee Adam Laxalt (R) is opposed to property tax increases.
The RGA said that the ad was part of a $7 million buy.
Also on the November ballot are Independent American nominee Russell Best, Libertarian nominee Jared Lord, and independent candidate Ryan Bundy.
Ben Jealous launches first ads in Maryland gubernatorial race
Maryland gubernatorial nominee Ben Jealous (D) and Jealous-aligned super PAC Maryland Together We Rise launched their first ads since the June 26 primaries.
Jealous' opponent, incumbent Larry Hogan (R), has been more active. Ballotpedia has tracked 11 Hogan ads and three from the RGA which ran between the June 26 primary and Jealous' first ad Sept. 16.
As of Aug. 21, Jealous reported raising $4.57 million across his two political committees, while Hogan reported raising $14.2 million in addition to having access to funds raised for his 2014 run.
Also on the November ballot are Green Party nominee Ian Schlakman and Libertarian nominee Shawn Quinn.
Debate season has begun
General election season is kicking off with debates and candidate forums in key races across the country. Find coverage of debates held in the following races last week:
- Wednesday: Johnson versus Walz, Governor of Minnesota
- Wednesday: Lujan Grisham versus Pearce, Governor of New Mexico
- Wednesday: Cordray versus DeWine, Governor of Ohio
- Thursday: Pritzker versus Rauner versus Jackson versus McCann, Governor of Illinois
- Friday: Ellison versus Wardlow, Attorney General of Minnesota
- Monday: Ducey versus Garcia versus Torres, Governor of Arizona
- Monday: Hogan versus Jealous, Governor of Maryland
- Monday: Edmondson versus Stitt, Governor of Oklahoma
Check out the following upcoming debates:
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Maine State Senate: 18-17 Republican majority
The Maine state Senate features a number of competitive seats; Republicans could either expand their slim majority or Democrats could take the chamber and come one step closer to trifecta control of the Pine Tree State.
Five Republicans hold seats Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Four Democrats hold seats Donald Trump won. According to Louis Jacobson of Governing, the competitive gubernatorial race between Janet Mills (D) and Shawn Moody (R) could affect turnout in these down-ballot contests.
Republicans took control of the Senate in 2014. The chamber switched between the parties before that, with Republicans flipping it from Democratic control in 2010 and Democrats winning it back in 2012.
🔵 Maine House of Representatives: 73-70 Democratic majority with 7 independents
If Democrats want to win a trifecta in Maine, they must hold the state House in addition to winning the Senate and the governorship. Republicans have not won House control since 2010.
We identified 40 of the 151 seats as potentially in play. These swing seats are almost evenly divided between the parties (21 Democratic, 17 Republican, and two independents), so the party with better turnout nationally and in the Mills (D) versus Moody (R) gubernatorial race might have an advantage in the state House.
Voters in 38 states will decide 154 statewide ballot measures in November. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, see the latest State Ballot Measure Monthly Update.
Voters in six states will decide whether to enact Marsy’s Law constitutional amendments. Marsy's Law describes a set of constitutional protections for crime victims six states have adopted since 2008 when California voters approved Proposition 9.
The Montana Supreme Court struck down a Marsy's Law initiative as unconstitutional in 2017.
The national effort for approval of the model constitutional amendment is backed by Marsy's Law for All.
Five of the six Marsy's Law measures approved before 2018 were citizen initiatives. All six of the 2018 ballot measures were referred to the ballot by state legislators or—in the case of Florida—by the Florida Constitution Revision Commission (CRC).
Here is a list of Marsy's Law measures on the 2018 general election ballot:
In South Dakota’s June 5 primary election, voters approved alterations proposed by the legislature to the Marsy's Law initiative that voters approved in 2016. The proposed alterations—found in Constitutional Amendment Y— were the result of a compromise with Marsy's Law for All.
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Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Joseph Widner, Democratic candidate for Missouri House of Representatives
 What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?
In a word - Education. I was about 10 years old when my parents sold their small business so that my father could go back to school full time. With the love and support of my mother, he graduated near the top of his class - while raising two boys and paying his way through school with the University's unique Work Program. By his example, I learned the value of both an education and a strong work ethic. When the time came to further my own education, my hard working parents did their best to help put me through college and then law school - it doesn't get much more American Dream than that. I want to make sure that Missouri's working families don't have to struggle just to make sure our children have a better future than their parents. I also want to make sure Missouri's schools are fully funded, and that no Missouri student has to turn down access to college, trade, or technical school just because of the financial burden that it would place on their families.
Read all of Widner’s responses →
Patrick Griffin, Republican candidate for Minnesota House of Representatives
 What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?
I am particularly interested in that legislation which affects the functionings of our institutions and the structures that run them. These structures and institutions will persist longer than any individual or even any single generation, and will likely continue to function with little appreciable difference no matter which people temporarily constitute them. For this purpose, crafting good, stable, and functional structures seems to me to be the greatest area in which a legislator can have a positive, lasting impact on his society. For example, efforts to reform the constitution of Minnesota to ensure legislative accountability and clarity in legislation seem to me to be of greater concern than the particulars of a single transportation bill, even though the latter is of definite importance. These types of reforms impact literally every single bill and every single subject debated by the legislature both now and in the future. We should make every effort to ensure that our governmental institutions are as honest, efficient, and effective as possible.
Read all of Griffin's responses →
Election analysis: What we're reading
- GOP's favorability hits highest mark in seven years: Gallup The Hill
- Half of 2018’s Democratic campaign ads are about health care Vox
- Is Trump Creating New Republicans? Wall Street Journal
- 'Geo-Economics,' Trump and the 2018 Midterms Gallup
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