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Daily Brew: May 29, 2019

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May 29, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights a Nevada constitutional amendment defining marriage + a summary of those candidates who have qualified for the first set of Democratic debates

  
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Wednesday, May 29, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
  1. Nevada voters to decide a 2020 amendment defining marriage as between couples regardless of gender
  2. Here's who has qualified for the first set of Democratic presidential debates 
  3. New Jersey holding statewide legislative primaries June 4

Nevada voters to decide a 2020 amendment defining marriage as between couples regardless of gender

Nevada voters will decide in 2020 whether to repeal a state constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. If approved, the new amendment would instead define marriage as between two people, regardless of gender. The proposed new amendment would also give religious organizations and clergy the right to refuse to solemnize a marriage.

Nevada voters approved Question 2—a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment—in both 2000 and 2002 defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Citizen-initiated amendments in Nevada must be approved at two successive general elections. Both times it was on the ballot, Question 2 received more than 67% of the vote.

Nevada is one of 30 states with a constitutional provision prohibiting same-sex marriage and/or defining marriage as between one man and one woman. In Obergefell v. Hodges (2015), the Supreme Court held that same-sex marriage is protected under the 14th Amendment and struck down state bans on same-sex marriage. Nevada is the first state asking voters to repeal language prohibiting same-sex marriage from the state constitution.

To amend the Nevada Constitution, each chamber must approve a measure by a simple majority vote over two legislative sessions. The original version—introduced in 2016—didn't allow clergy or religious organizations to refuse to solemnize a marriage. It passed the state Assembly 27-14 with all Democrats in favor and 14 of 15 Republicans opposed. The state Senate added the religious exemption and approved the measure 19-2. The state House approved the revised measure in May 2017 but the vote totals were not recorded. Both chambers of the Nevada legislature approved the amendment in 2019 with the state Assembly passing 37-2 and the state Senate 19-2.

The ballot measure defining marriage is one of four constitutional amendments referred to the 2020 ballot in the legislature's 2019 session. The legislature could refer an additional three amendments that were passed in 2017 by approving them again before it adjourns June 3. The potential measures include a minimum wage increase and an amendment establishing a right to medically-necessary emergency care and services. Thirty-two statewide ballot measures have been certified for the 2020 ballot in 16 states.

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Here's who has qualified for the first set of Democratic presidential debates

The first Democratic presidential primary debates are set to occur June 26 and 27 in Miami, Florida—less than one month away. So far, 20 of the 24 notable candidates have met the polling or fundraising thresholds to participate. Since the Democratic National Committee has declared the first set of debates will feature a maximum of 20 candidates, they will use a series of tiebreakers to determine who participates if any additional candidates qualify.  

First priority will be given to candidates who have reached both the polling and fundraising thresholds. If more than 20 candidates have met both thresholds, the candidates with the highest polling average in three national or early state polls will be selected. If a third tiebreaker must be used, the candidate with the highest number of contributors will participate.

Thirteen candidates have met both the polling and fundraising requirements:

• Joe Biden
• Cory Booker
• Pete Buttigieg
• Julián Castro
• Tulsi Gabbard
• Kamala Harris
• Jay Inslee
• Amy Klobuchar
• Beto O’Rourke
• Bernie Sanders
• Elizabeth Warren
• Marianne Williamson
• Andrew Yang

Six candidates have only met the polling threshold:

• Steve Bullock
• John Delaney
• Kirsten Gillibrand
• John Hickenlooper
• Tim Ryan
• Eric Swalwell

A seventh candidate—New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio—has achieved the polling threshold in two polls and may have reached the 1% threshold in a Reuters survey released earlier this month. FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, who believes de Blasio met the criteria in that survey, said the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will be “’using the top-line number listed in the original public release from the approved sponsoring organization/institution’ for what it's counting and the first column in the [Reuters] poll has de Blasio at 1%. The Reuters story also lists those figures.”

Four candidates—Michael Bennet, Mike Gravel, Wayne Messam, and Seth Moulton—have not yet qualified for the debates by either method and have until June 12 to do so.

New Jersey holding statewide legislative primaries June 4

On June 4, New Jersey will hold statewide primary elections for all 80 seats in the state Assembly. It is composed of 40 multi-member districts, with two representatives from each district. In Democratic and Republican primaries, the top two candidates from each party advance to the general election, and the top two vote recipients in the general election are elected as representatives. Members of the state Senate will not face voters until 2021.

Seventy-six of 80 Assembly incumbents are running for re-election, meaning 5% of seats are open. This is the lowest percentage of open seats in Assembly elections this decade. During this span, the percentage of open seats ranged from 6.3% in 2013 to 22.5% in 2011.

In all even-year state legislative elections held across the country from 2010 to 2018—when approximately 6,000 seats are up for election each year—the lowest percentage of open-seat races was in 2014 when 17.0% of races were without an incumbent. In odd-year elections held from 2011 to 2017, the lowest percentage of open-seat races was in 2013, when 15 of 220 seats—6.8%—did not feature an incumbent.

Twenty-six of the 76 incumbents (34.2%) running for re-election have contested primaries. Since the state uses multi-member districts, these are cases where at least three candidates are running from the same party. This percentage is higher than previous New Jersey General Assembly elections held from 2011 to 2017. During this period, the percentage of contested primaries ranged from 6.3% in 2015 to 29.0% in 2011.

No New Jersey state Assembly incumbents were defeated in primaries from 2011 to 2017; Seven incumbents lost Assembly general elections during this period.

The New Jersey General Assembly currently has 54 Democrats and 26 Republicans. It is one of 14 Democratic trifectas, as Democrats also control the state Senate and the governor’s office.


See also

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