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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 2 (January 22, 2018)
Filing deadlines have passed in two states, but elsewhere, the jockeying for a slot on the primary ballot continues. We're covering both sides of the aisle, so click here to sign up for The Heart of the Primaries: Republicans. Have a tip for us or see something we missed? Let us know at geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
Upcoming filing deadlines: West Virginia (Jan. 27), Kentucky (Jan. 30)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas (2)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,101 Democrats, 777 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“With California looming as a critical battleground in the Democratic campaign to capture Congress, vulnerable Republican House members here are now struggling under the weight of President Trump’s unpopularity and policies, which are widely viewed as damaging to this heavily Democratic state.”
- Adam Nagourney, The Washington Post, Jan. 19, 2018
“Democrats who cheered the retirement announcements of Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce last week are sobering up to a new fear: A potential nightmare scenario in which no Democratic candidate ends up on the November ballot in either seat, dealing a blow to the party’s efforts to retake the House.”
- David Siders, Politico, Jan. 19, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 239
- Open seats: 45
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 31
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Progressive Illinois Reps pass over Lipinski with Newman endorsement in IL-03
Progressive Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) endorsed Marie Newman over incumbent Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) in the Democratic primary for Illinois' 3rd Congressional District.
"The people of Illinois' 3rd District want a pro-health care, pro-immigrant, pro-woman, pro-LGBTQ Member of Congress to represent them in Washington. Unfortunately, the current Member does not reflect those values, which is why I am endorsing Marie Newman for Congress," Schakowsky said.
Lipinski’s only major endorsement this cycle: Illinois AFL-CIO
The field for Brady’s Pennsylvania seat grows to six Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District incumbent Rep. Bob Brady (D) now has a sixth challenger -- former bank executive Michele Lawrence (D).
Brady is under federal investigation for allegedly paying off a primary rival in 2012.
Manning is wild card in Maryland Senate race
Former Army soldier Chelsea Manning, who served seven years in prison for leaking classified documents to WikiLeaks, released her first campaign ad for the U.S. Senate race in Maryland. Dubbing her brand of politics “radical anti-authoritarianism,” Manning is calling for the closure of prisons, free health care, and open borders.
Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) won his last election by 30 points.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Gretchen Whitmer scores union endorsement as alternative candidate fails to emerge
The Michigan Education Association endorsed former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Monday in the Aug. 7 gubernatorial primary.
However, Bridge Magazine reports that Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (D) and United Auto Workers President Dennis Williams are among a group of influencers hoping to recruit a candidate they believe will be stronger in the general election. Sen. Gary Peters (D) and Rep. Dan Kildee (D) reportedly turned down invitations to run. In a Detroit Free Press story, political consultant Ed Sarpolus said, "if the MEA is endorsing this early, it means the push to find somebody to replace Gretchen isn’t going anywhere."
Rebecca Dallet has cash lead in Wisconsin Supreme Court primary
The latest campaign finance reports show Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Rebecca Dallet with the most cash on hand heading into the Feb. 20 Wisconsin Supreme Court primary. Dallet has $390,000 versus attorney Tim Burns' $110,000, and Sauk County Circuit Judge Michael Screnock's $77,000.
The top two finishers in the primary advance to a general election April 3. Screnock, described locally as a conservative, is expected to advance.
Urban Milwaukee said Burns is "essentially conceding the state is a partisan hotbed and portraying himself as the 'progressive' candidate in the race," while Dallet has emphasized her experience on the bench. University of Wisconsin-Madison professor Ryan Owens told the Baraboo News-Republic "the primary race could determine which is valued more by Democratic and liberal-leaning voters: judicial credentials, touted by Dallet, or ideology, where Burns may have an edge."
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 seats in state legislatures during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for both parties in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois and Texas, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 41.1 percent. The number of Democratic candidates running for all offices has increased 50 percent and the number of Democratic incumbents facing primary challenges has increased 97.5 percent.
Sexual misconduct allegations threaten IDC/ Mainline Dem alliance in New York Senate
Democratic insiders wonder whether the alliance between the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and mainline Democrats in the New York State Senate can survive accusations that IDC Leader Jeff Klein forcibly kissed an ex-staffer in 2015. Klein denies the allegations. State party leaders and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee appeared to have convinced Klein and mainline Democratic leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins to join forces as co-leaders of the Senate Democrats, a pact that would have given Democrats control of the Senate. The IDC previously aligned with Republicans, putting the GOP in charge.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
No IDC NY
"I guarantee [we will field candidates] - you can print it, stamp it, carve it in stone. It's happening." -Gus Christensen, chief strategist for No IDC NY
No IDC NY, a group formed last year to field primary challengers to the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), appears ready to carry out its mission regardless of what happens to the IDC-Mainline Democratic alliance.
"The grassroots momentum will support only one solution in regards to creating an effective and functional Democratic Senate majority: beat IDC at the ballot box," No IDC NY's Susan Kang said after the new deal was announced. "Strong primary challengers are rising as we speak in all eight IDC districts, and we believe strongly that IDC members will lose their primaries next year."
What we’re reading
- “Trump Visit Shows High Stakes for Pa. Special Election” (Real Clear Politics)
- “The GOP Can’t Win a DACA Debate It Won’t Have” (National Review)
- “For GOP, No Trump Juice or Coattails in November” (Real Clear Politics)
- “It’s Democrats’ turn to fear the shutdown trap” (The Washington Post)
