Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 3 (January 29, 2018)
Three filing deadlines down, 47 to go. We're covering both sides of the aisle, so click here to sign up for The Heart of the Primaries: Republicans. Have a tip for us or see something we missed? Let us know at geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
Upcoming filing deadlines: Kentucky (Jan. 30), Ohio (Feb. 7), Indiana and Alabama (Feb. 9)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas, West Virginia (3)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,107 Democrats, 798 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
How 'bout that shutdown?
“The Democrats lost the shutdown before it started, when Ryan pushed through a short-term spending bill that narrowed the issues at stake by including a six-year extension of the Children’s Health Insurance Program.”
- E.J. Dionne, Jr., The Washington Post, Jan. 24, 2018
“And if Democrats do need to shut down the government in three weeks, they’ll do so with the Children’s Health Insurance Program funded for six years, rather than seeing it weaponized against them. That’s a big deal, both substantively and politically.”
- Ezra Klein, Vox, Jan. 22, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 46
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 32
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Gray versus McGrath in Kentucky’s 6th
Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (D) joined four other Democrats in the race for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee urged Gray to run last year. He won the district in his failed 2016 Senate run against Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Candidate Amy McGrath, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel, raised $800,000 from 16,000 individual donors following this ad.
Vox called the race "an intraparty debate about how Democrats can best compete in rural, red-leaning districts."
Another progressive organization picks Newman in Illinois’ 3rd
Progressive Our Revolution Illinois, an offshoot of the Bernie Sanders-inspired Our Revolution, endorsed Marie Newman over incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District.
Lipinski, who chaired the Congressional Pro-Life Caucus, canceled an appearance at the Jan. 19 “March for Life” rally, citing President Donald Trump’s attendance. “Unfortunately, no one knows what the President may say at any time. Knowing this, I chose not to speak at the Washington March for Life because I did not want to put myself in a potentially morally compromised situation,” he said.
Garcia takes early lead in IL-04 race
A recent Garin-Hart-Yang poll showed Jesus Garcia leading the field in Illinois’ 4th Congressional District with 59 percent. The poll showed Joe Moreno at 8 percent and Sol Flores with 6 percent.
Retiring incumbent Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) endorsed Garcia for this safe Democratic seat in 2017.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Teachers unions take sides in Nevada
The Nevada State Education Association unanimously endorsed Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D) for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The union's Clark County local, however, endorsed Giunchigliani's primary opponent, Clark County Commission Chairman Steve Sisolak (D) two weeks earlier.
The unions have been at odds since early 2017. They filed lawsuits against each other in September, with the state union alleging the local had withheld membership dues and the local arguing that the state union’s management of those dues was insufficiently transparent. Clark County is Nevada’s largest population center, with 2.1 million of the state’s 2.9 million residents.
Giunchigliani and Sisolak are among the four candidates in the June 12 primary. The filing deadline is March 16.
Nevada Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 5/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 4/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 3/4
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 10/21
- Seats held in state Assembly: 27/42
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 seats in state legislatures during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois and Texas, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 41.1 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 50 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 97.5 percent.
#MeToo activists act to block California Democratic Party endorsement of Mendoza
California #MeToo activists from his own district may use procedural tactics to prevent the Democratic Party from endorsing state Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) for re-election.
Mendoza was accused of sexual misconduct in 2017 and took a leave of absence while under Senate investigation. He has denied the allegations.
The activists are delegates to the state party convention, where most endorsements are made without debate. But if the 20 petition signatures the #MeToo activists gathered are validated, then Mendoza’s endorsement will have to go through a formal process, including a vote by delegates.
Mendoza is not happy. He said, “I am disappointed that a small group of some Democrats have decided to act unilaterally and prematurely on the basis of allegations against me in the media to oppose my endorsement by the Democratic Party."
Mendoza is one of 49 government officials that Ballotpedia has found sexual misconduct allegations against in the aftermath of the Harvey Weinstein reports in October 2017.
Clinton alum emerges to take on IDC Leader Klein for NY Senate seat
Former Hillary Clinton campaign staffer Alessandra Biaggi has launched a primary challenge against Jeff Klein, leader of the New York Senate’s Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
Although Klein has rarely faced either primary or general election challenges since winning the district in 2004, Biaggi likely senses opportunity after accusations Klein forcibly kissed a former staffer came out earlier this month.
The IDC has caucused with Senate Republicans in recent years, helping to deny Democrats a majority.
Colorado state representative accused of sexual harassment draws primary challengers
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Colorado state Rep. Paul Rosenthal (D) has two declared challengers in the state’s June 26 primaries. Emily Sirota and Ashley Wheeland both cite sexual harassment complaints against Rosenthal as the reasons for their runs.
In November 2017, activist Thomas Cavaness filed a complaint alleging Rosenthal had inappropriately touched him in 2012. Both men are gay.
House Speaker Crisanta Duran (D) dismissed the complaint because the alleged incident took place before Rosenthal was in office. Rosenthal denies the allegations.
Progressive challenger takes aim at longtime incumbent in New Mexico House
New Mexico State Rep. Debbie Rodella (D) has drawn a challenge from her left in the June 5 primary. Former Congressional Hispanic Caucus director Susan Herrera entered the primary because she wants “a more progressive Democratic Party at the state Legislature.”
Rodella has served since 1992. She has irked progressives over the years with her positions on same-sex marriage, payday lending, and automatic voter registration.
Local politics
Sanders-style challenger shakes up local Illinois county assessor’s race
Joseph Berrios (D), the Assessor in charge of valuing and collecting property taxes in Cook County, Illinois, faces a primary challenge from former mutual fund manager Fritz Kaegi. Cook County contains the city of Chicago and is the second most populous in the country after Los Angeles County in California.
“Our property tax system is not fair today,” Kaegi said. “It is corrupted. Berrios represents machine politics in Cook County and all the things that people really detest about the system.”
Kaegi has the support of Our Revolution Illinois as well as Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia and three Chicago-area U.S. representatives. Kaegi got candidate training at the progressive Wellstone Action organization and has put roughly $800,000 of his own money into the race.
Berrios, first elected as Assessor in 2010, is also the chairman of the Cook County Democratic Party. He has the support of long-serving Chicago politicians such as U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) and House Speaker and state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Madigan (D).
Berrios said he “inherited a broken system and is working hard every day to fix it.” He has also questioned the source of some of Kaegi’s campaign contributions, saying that some of his donors also gave to Gov. Bruce Rauner (R).
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Justice Democrats
"If left to their own devices, the Democratic Party leadership would run on a stale agenda created by wealthy donors and out-of-touch consultants." -@justicedems, Twitter account for Justice Democrats
Senate Democrats' vote to end the recent government shutdown without a deal for DREAMers angered many progressive groups.
Among them was Justice Democrats, a nonconnected PAC founded in 2017 by Young Turks co-creator Cenk Uygur, online progressive radio host Kyle Kulinski, and former Bernie Sanders presidential campaign staffers Zack Exley and Saikat Chakrabarti. The Washington Post reported that the group tweeted a picture of five Democratic senators who voted to end the shutdown, promising to "replace them in 2018."
Justice Democrats' core mission is to oust or outrun what it calls "corporate-backed Democrats." The group is supporting 51 candidates in a number of Democratic primary battlegrounds, including seats held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL-03), and retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL-27).
The group’s endorsed candidates have pledged not to accept corporate PAC or lobbyist contributions and generally support a progressive campaign platform that includes Medicare for All and the DREAM Act.
What we’re reading
- “The Thin Blue Wave” (Politico)
- “Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First” (The Intercept)
- “The case for restoring earmarks” (The Washington Post)
- “Yes, Congress is broken. But earmarks will only make it worse.” (The Washington Post)
