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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 9 (March 12, 2018)
This week: The wheels begin to turn in Colorado’s Democratic race, Bernie wades into Illinois, and Sen. Gillibrand helps herself...in Texas. Want more primary coverage? Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
- Upcoming filing deadlines: March 12 (Montana), March 13 (New Mexico), March 15 (Maine, Utah), March 16 (Iowa, Nevada)
- Passed filing deadlines: 16
- Upcoming elections: March 20 (Illinois)
- Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,250 Democrats, 942 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“A tidal wave of early Democratic votes in the primary was reason for Cruz to be freaked. Those votes doubled compared with the midterm primary in 2014 and exceeded 2016 levels, according to Newsweek. In the last fundraising period, Beto bested Cruz by several million dollars and a recent Democratic poll put him within single digits of Cruz.” - Jill Abramson, The Guardian, March 7, 2018
“In contrast, for the Democrats, raising expectations of a wave could be dangerous. Democratic constituents are generally disinclined to vote in midterms in the first place. To the extent that they are not particularly excited about the candidate their party fielded and believe that Democrats will most likely make major gains with or without them, it becomes more likely that a significant number will stay home on Election Day.” - Musa al-Gharbi, The New York Times, March 8, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 51
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Sen. Bernie Sanders endorses challenger in IL-03, stays out of California Senate primary
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) (pictured left) endorsed newcomer Marie Newman over incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) in the Democratic primary for Illinois' 3rd Congressional District.
In a written statement, Sanders said Newman “made it clear that she will be a champion for working families in Illinois, which is why I am proud to support her campaign.”
In the California Senate race, Sanders declined to endorse any candidate, including incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D). “It’s an issue for the people of California,” he said.
Maryland Working Families endorses Manno in MD-06
Maryland Working Families joins Progressive Maryland and several local unions in endorsing state Sen. Roger Manno (D) for Maryland’s 6th Congressional District seat.
A number of Del. Aruna Miller (D) legislative colleagues have endorsed her bid for the open, and safely Democratic, seat. Miller also has a $752,000 campaign war chest, nearly triple Manno’s total.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Cary Kennedy takes lead in Colorado caucuses
Colorado Democrats took their first of several steps toward picking a gubernatorial nominee Tuesday, with precinct caucus attendees giving former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D) 50 percent of the vote. Rep. Jared Polis (D) finished second at 33 percent and state Sen. Mike Johnston (D) came in third at 9 percent.
But what do those numbers really mean?
The precinct tallies are actually for delegates backing a particular candidate at the party’s upcoming county conventions.
Those county delegates will, in turn, select delegates to the statewide convention. State convention delegates will vote on the gubernatorial candidates.
To make the primary ballot, a candidate must get either 30 percent of the vote at the convention or submit signatures from 1,500 party members in each of the state's seven congressional districts.
Johnston is also seeking a spot on the ballot via petition and is the only Democratic candidate to have turned in the required signatures. If the secretary of state verifies Johnston's signatures, he will be guaranteed a spot on the ballot -- so long as he receives at least 10 percent of the vote at the convention.
Nine candidates filed for the primary. The filing deadline is March 20. The June 26 primary is open to registered Democrats and voters unaffiliated with any political party.
Colorado Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 16/35
- Seats held in state House: 36/65
Abrams gets GOTV support in Georgia gubernatorial primary
Center for American Progress board member Susan Sandler announced a get-out-the-vote effort Tuesday in support of former state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) in Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Sandler said she contributed $1 million to the effort and had secured an additional $1 million from other donors. The money will support 250 organizers focused on boosting rural African-American turnout.
Sandler said Doug Jones’ victory in December’s Alabama Senate race "gave a glimpse of a new electoral equation."
"If we elect Stacey,” Sandler said, “we will show that we know how to win in the South without compromising our principles and beliefs."
Abrams is one of two Democratic candidates. The May 22 primary is open to all registered voters.
Georgia Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 2/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/14
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/8
- Seats held in state Senate: 19/56
- Seats held in state House: 64/180
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 47.6 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 29.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 45.5 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 78.2 percent.
*Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Mike Madigan flexing his muscles in Illinois Democratic Party battles
Long-time Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is spending thousands of dollars to keep progressives and potential enemies off the State Central Democratic Committee and out of the state House.
According to a report in the Intercept, Madigan is “knocking several progressive candidates as Donald Trump stooges and foot soldiers in the tea party.”
Our Revolution-endorsed State Central Committee candidate Art Bardsley said Madigan opposed him because he would vote against Madigan for state party chairman.
The Chicago Tribune endorsed Democrat Cecil Matthews for the 38th House District because he “wouldn’t be beholden to [Madigan].
Madigan has faced calls to resign from his leadership positions over charges he improperly handled sexual misconduct allegations against two of his political aides.
And the Texas election cycle begins anew
Following state Sen. Sylvia Garcia’s victory in the Democratic primary in the 29th Congressional District, state Reps. Ana Hernandez (left) and Carol Alvarado (right) announced their bids for Garcia’s soon-to-be-vacant District 6 Senate seat.
If Garcia wins the general election for the likely Democratic congressional seat, a special election will be held for the 6th District post.
Both Alvarado and Hernandez ran unopposed in their respective state House primaries.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Kirsten Gillibrand
"I want to make it a call to action — asking women first and foremost to vote; second, being an advocate on the issues they care about; third, holding their lawmakers accountable on their priorities; and then hoping to get a few more to run." -U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand on her Off the Sidelines program and PAC
U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) Off the Sidelines PAC, which recruits and supports female candidates for office, backed seven Democratic candidates in Tuesday's Texas primaries. All seven either won their races outright or advanced to the May runoff election.
Outright winners Veronica Escobar (D) and Sylvia Garcia (D) are in solidly blue congressional districts—the 16th District, currently held by U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (D), and the open 29th District, where Rep. Gene Green (D) is retiring.
Gillibrand’s Texas foray could be useful if she decides to seek the party’s presidential nomination in 2020.
Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf said potential presidential candidates “need lots of friends” outside their home base.
If Gillibrand wants to be president, Sheinkopf said, she must "keep picking up friends in states where there are high delegate numbers."
Texas sent 251 delegates -- 5.51 percent of the total delegates selected nationwide -- to the 2016 Democratic National Convention. The state has 38 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
What we’re reading
- “Why Can’t the DCCC and the Resistance Get Along?” (Politico)
- “The good and bad news for Democrats in Texas, explained by a top political junkie” (Vox)
- “In 2018, it's still good to be a political outsider” (Washington Examiner)
- “The endangered GOP senator who thinks Justice Kennedy could save him” (Politico)
