Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 10 (March 19, 2018)

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Issue No. 10

This week: A preview of Tuesday’s Illinois primaries, a Democratic institution gets a challenge in New Hampshire, plus an insider’s look at a Kentucky House race. Looking for more primary coverage? Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: March 20 (Colorado, Pennsylvania), March 21 (Washington, D.C.)
Passed filing deadlines: 22
Upcoming elections: March 20 (Illinois)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,249 Democrats, 966 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.

“The real lesson, the one that Democrats need to recognize, it [sic] precisely the opposite of what Trump and Ryan suggest. Lamb isn’t exactly a progressive Democrat…But on the essential issue of labor rights, Lamb ran a far more militant campaign than most prominent Democrats have in recent decades.” - John Nichols, The Nation, March 15, 2018

“Conor Lamb’s triumph in Trump country is being heralded by conservative Democrats as a major victory in their ongoing turf battle with the far left — and an object lesson on the kind of candidates the party needs to promote and win to take the House in November.” - Heather Caygle, Politico, March 15, 2018

U.S. Congress

U.S. House:
Democratic seats heading into November: 193
Republican seats heading into November: 238
Open seats: 51
Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12

U.S. Senate:
Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
Republican seats heading into November: 51
Open seats: 3
Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump:10

Democratic field in NJ-07 narrows, Malinowski consolidates support

Banking executive Linda Weber withdrew from the New Jersey 7th Congressional District Democratic primary after the Union County Democratic Committee endorsed Obama-era State Department official Tom Malinowski (pictured left).

Teacher Lisa Mandelblatt and attorney Scott Salmon both endorsed Malinowski when they withdrew from the race in February.

Malinowski still faces civil rights attorney Goutam Jois, who raised $300,000 last year, and social worker Peter Jacob, backed by Bernie Sanders-linked organizations Our Revolution and Justice Democrats, in the primary.

The state of the race in KY-06

Ballotpedia reached out to key players in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, where Democrats hope to unseat vulnerable incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R), to get a read on the primary. Here’s what we learned:

Jim Gray (D) campaign manager Jamie Emmons noted Gray won the district by 14,000 votes over Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) in 2016. Emmons also highlighted Gray’s tenure as Lexington’s mayor. “That’s the type of experience we need more of in DC and Jim is running to send some adult supervision to Washington,” Emmons said.

VoteVets chair Jon Soltz said there were two critical issues in the race: “First and foremost, we need someone who will protect Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid from being gutted and privatized.

“Second, we need more leaders in Congress who will use their authority to keep us out of deadly and expensive wars, whether they are in North Korea or Iran or elsewhere Soltz said.” VoteVets endorsed Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath (D).

Business analyst and candidate Daniel Kemph (D) said he is “one of the people and at one with the people.” Kemph advocates “dynamic gun policy that prioritizes life and liberty over that of gun ownership,” as well as a single-payer health care system, and a path to citizenship.

John Lewis endorses Capuano in MA-07

Civil rights leader Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) endorsed incumbent Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) in the race for Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, the state’s sole majority-minority seat.

"I know Mike Capuano as a champion and fierce advocate for those who have often been forgotten or left behind," Lewis said.

Internal polling from Pressley shows a plurality of district voters believe primaries should feature “candidates that represent the diversity" of the party.

Capuano, who ran unopposed in his past two elections, faces a primary challenge from Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D).

Rep. Louise Slaughter, first female chair of the House Rules Committee, dies at 88

Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) (pictured right), who represented New York’s 25th Congressional District since 1986 and was the first woman to chair the powerful House Rules Committee died Friday at 88.

In a statement, Slaughter’s chief of staff Liam Fitzsimmon said “Louise blazed a path that many women continue to follow. It is difficult to find a segment of society that Louise didn't help shape over the course of more than 30 years in Congress, from health care to genetic nondiscrimination to historic ethics reforms.”

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

"My mother died of a preventable illness had she only had access to medical care. My mother was uninsured which was the barrier to her ability to get an MRI that could have saved her life. In the United States of America, no one should ever lose a loved one because they do not have access to medical care."

- Sara Dady, candidate for Illinois' 16th Congressional District

Read all of Sara Dady's responses →

Governors

Governors: key information
Open seats	17
Open seats held by a Democrat	4
Open seats held by a Republican	13
States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton	8
States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump	1

Candidates meet in final debate before Illinois primary

State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) and businessman Chris Kennedy (D) targeted frontrunner J.B. Pritzker (D) in the final debate before the March 20 Democratic gubernatorial primary over allegations that Pritzker kept portions of his personal finances in offshore accounts.

Pritzker dismissed the charges, saying "it’s clear [Biss and Kennedy are] behind and this is how they intend to run the rest of the campaign.”

“In fact,” Pritzker said, “they’ve been running it this way all along — quite negatively."

Ballotpedia spoke with Democratic Party of DuPage County Chairman Robert Peickert about next week's primaries:

What is the most critical issue for Illinoisans in this race?

“Illinois voters are deciding who has the best strategy to reign in the corporate greed that has long gone unchecked at the expense of the social good. Illinois needs a governor who will work for us, and that includes leadership of a functioning government. Bruce Rauner let our state linger in limbo for years without an operating budget, letting necessary services slip through the cracks. This underfunding has both immediate and long-term negative consequences for the well-being of our state's economy, the working people and our children's future.”

What do you believe are the implications of this primary for the state of Illinois? Do you believe this primary has broader implications for the national Democratic Party?

“This election will reveal what Illinois voters believe is the best option to get our state, and ultimately our country, back on track. It will show how Illinois voters reject Trump's policies and hint at the issues of importance in November of this year and later in 2020. With nearly one million residents, DuPage is the second largest county in Illinois next to Cook and since 2007 has seen dramatic growth in Democratic turnout. What we are most excited about is the great number of well-qualified local candidates that are running for office. Our voters are motivated and mobilized and we look forward to welcoming these individuals to office this November.”

Illinois Democrats party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 11/18
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
• Seats held in state Senate: 37/59
• Seats held in state House: 67/118

Nebraska Supreme Court to decide challenge to Krist candidacy

Nebraska state Sen. Bob Krist (D) responded to a legal challenge from from fellow gubernatorial candidate Tyler Davis (D), who alleges Krist joined the Democratic Party too late to participate in the primary.

The state Supreme Court will rule on the Davis’ challenge. Since ballots will start to be printed on March 21, Davis wants a decision made before then.

Davis says state law bars candidates in partisan elections from switching their party registration after the December preceding the election.

Krist’s legal response cites a 1998 memo written by then-Secretary of State Scott Moore (R) which says unaffiliated candidates may not, by definition, switch their party registration. Krist says his previous party, the United Nebraska Party, never earned official state recognition and as such, he was unaffiliated.

Current Secretary of State John Gale (R) cited the Moore memo when he denied a complaint Davis filed against Krist in February.

Krist, Davis, and pastor Vanessa Ward (D) will appear on the May 15 primary ballot. The primary is open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

Nebraska Democrats party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 0/3
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
• Affiliated members of state Senate: 16/49

Legislatures

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland*, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 82.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 91.7 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 152.9 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 115.2 percent.

*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016

Tuesday’s Illinois Democratic primaries

Democrats already have majorities in both legislative chambers, but they are still energized heading into Tuesday’s primaries.

There are 34 contested state legislative primaries to be decided, and some of them are worth watching closely.

State Sen. Ira Silverstein, who was accused of sexual harassment in 2017, faces four primary challengers.

Although the legislature’s inspector general cleared him of wrongdoing, Silverstein drew the ire of state Sen. Laura Murphy and U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, both of whom endorsed challenger Ram Villivalam.

In the five-way race to replace Al Riley in House District 38, state Democratic Party Chairman and House Speaker Mike Madigan (D) has targeted two candidates critical of his leadership, Cecil Matthews and Max Solomon, for defeat.

In its endorsement of Matthews, the Chicago Tribune said he would “not be beholden” to Madigan. Solomon called Madigan “exactly what’s wrong with Illinois.”

New Hampshire progressives launch challenge to Gardner

Progressives critical of his positions on voting access and participation in a presidential committee investigating voter fraud are mounting a primary challenge to the nation’s longest serving secretary of state, Bill Gardner (D).

Colin Van Ostern, the unsuccessful Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2016, said he will campaign for his preferred state legislative candidates. Ostern’s Free and Fair New Hampshire PAC will provide additional support. Senate Minority Leader Jeff Woodburn (D) and House Minority Leader Steve Shurtleff (D) are backing Ostern’s effort.

In New Hampshire, the General Court chooses the secretary of state. The winners of the November legislative elections will select the next secretary Dec. 5.

Sen. Lou D’Allesandro (D) and most state Republican leaders, including Gov. Chris Sununu and House Speaker Gene Chandler, back Gardner. The 80-year old D’Allesandro was Gardner’s high school civics teacher and usually renominates him as secretary of state.

Republicans said replacing Gardner, who’s held the office since 1976, with a more politically-motivated candidate could jeopardize New Hampshire’s early presidential primary election date.

New Hampshire’s secretary of state has legal discretion to move the presidential primary date one week before primaries in other states.

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Union County Democratic Committee

"It is time to put changing our country over my own candidacy and do what is best for our shared goal in November. I want to ensure that the candidate who is best able to take out [Republican] Congressman Leonard Lance has a clear field to do so. I urge the other candidates to consider the consequences of a bloody primary." -Lisa Mandelblatt, former 2018 Democratic candidate in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in a speech announcing her withdrawal from the race

The [New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)|Democratic primary]] in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District has been the site of not one but two intraparty battles. The Union County Democratic Committee settled the first Wednesday when it endorsed former State Department official Tom Malinowski over banking executive Linda Weber in a 7-6 vote.

Weber and Malinowski previously split the endorsements of the other five county parties in the 7th District, with Weber taking Essex and Somerset, and Malinowski winning Hunterdon, Morris, and Warren.

Weber said she would withdraw if she did not win the support of the majority of the district’s county parties. Weber suspended her campaign after the Union County decision.

That clears Malinowski's path in the second primary battle against 2016 candidate Peter Jacob. National progressive groups Brand New Congress, Justice Democrats, and Our Revolution have endorsed Jacob.

Justice Democrats criticized the county parties, saying “some county chairs are leaving nothing to chance in their effort to stack the deck against Jacob in favor of establishment candidates."

What we’re reading

“The fight for the soul of the Democratic Party” (The Week)
“The Democratic runoff for governor could signal the party's future in Texas” (The Dallas Morning News)
“Democrats brace for potential California disaster” (Politico)
“A Flock of Lambs” (U.S. News and World Report)