Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 11 (March 26, 2018)
This week: Nixon declares against Cuomo, Bloomberg invests in a Colorado primary, and Cook County’s political earthquake. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: March 27 (Missouri, South Dakota), March 29 (Virginia), March 30 (South Carolina)
Passed filing deadlines: 26
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,242 Democrats, 970 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“Republicans' efforts to tether Pennsylvania Democrat Conor Lamb to party leader Nancy Pelosi were unsuccessful in this week's special election, but they aren't abandoning the strategy.
Instead, in an election season where their own leadership is unpopular -- and an energizing force for Democrats -- Republicans see Pelosi as a critical counterweight in not only motivating their own base voters but in winning back independents who have been lost in the Trump era.”
- Caitlin Huey-Burns, Real Clear Politics, March 18, 2018
“Besides, the anti-Pelosi message isn't really about swing voters, who barely know who she is. It helps fire up partisan Republicans. And Republican-aligned media has no problem creating new demons for hard-core Republican voters to get fired up against.”
- Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg, March 20, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 51
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Red state Senate Democrats look to sail through primaries on way to tough general elections.
U.S. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), and Sherrod Brown (D-Oh.) largely avoid primary challengers in this cycle. Their real tests come in November, when they seek re-election in states Donald Trump won in 2016.
Only Manchin (pictured right) has a primary challenger. Paula Jean Swearengin is running to his left with the endorsement of the Bernie Sanders-aligned group Justice Democrats. Swearengin faces an uphill fight against Manchin, whose political roots go deep -- he’s been in the Senate since 2010, and previously served as governor and secretary of state.
California Party officials concerned about potential spoilers
With crowded Democratic fields and competitive Republican candidates in several congressional races, California Democratic Party officials are concerned the state’s top-two primary system could allow two Republicans to advance to the general election.
California Democratic congressional delegation chair Zoe Lofgren said party officials have discussed the potential spoiler issue with some candidates, and whether the party should intervene.
Organizations like Fight Back California and NextGen America have also indicated they could get involved in the crowded races.
DCCC backs Randy Bryce in WI-01
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backed ironworker Randy Bryce (D) (right) over educator Cathy Myers (D) in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District as part of its “Red to Blue” program.
“We have a real chance to knock out the speaker of the House,” the Bryce campaign said. DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján said of Bryce that “Wisconsin’s working families are sick and tired of Washington dysfunction and are ready to send one of their own to Congress.”
Myers said the national party “continues to think it knows better than primary voters and local Democratic activists.”
House Democrats said the program is not an explicit endorsement.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What happened on your most awkward date?
"I accidentally bumped into the woman’s hand as she was holding her phone, and it fell. The entire screen smashed to the point it was unreadable. And as expected, never heard from her again."
- Adam DeMarco, candidate for Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District
Read all of Adam DeMarco's responses →
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Nixon launches primary challenge against Cuomo
Actress Cynthia Nixon (D) announced Monday she would challenge New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in the Sept. 13 primary. Cuomo's only other declared challenger, former state Sen. Terry Gipson (D), suspended his campaign Wednesday. Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) said Nixon’s announcement would not affect her decision on whether to enter the race.
Following Nixon’s announcement, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) endorsed Cuomo.
Nixon's campaign treasurer, law professor Zephyr Teachout (D), received 34 percent of the vote in her 2014 primary challenge to Cuomo.
The filing deadline is April 12. The Sept. 13 primary is open to registered Democrats.
New York Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 8/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 17/26
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/4
- Seats held in state Senate: 30/63
- Seats held in state Assembly: 103/150
Michael Bloomberg commits $1 million to Colorado candidate
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) contributed $1 million to Frontier Fairness PAC, which has links to gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Michael Johnston (D).
Bloomberg spokesman Stu Loeser told Colorado Politics that Johnston's position on firearms regulations factored into the contribution.
Businessman Noel Ginsburg (D) withdrew from the gubernatorial race Tuesday, citing fundraising difficulties.
Eight candidates are running in the June 26 primary. The primary is open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Colorado Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 16/35
- Seats held in state House: 36/65
Nebraska Supreme Court rules in Krist’s favor in ballot dispute
The Nebraska Supreme Court invalidated a challenge to state Sen. Bob Krist's (D) participation in the Democratic gubernatorial primary Monday.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tyler Davis alleged Krist, who initially launched his bid as an independent, missed the December deadline for candidates to switch parties.
The disagreed, ruling that because Krist’s United Nebraska Party never achieved official recognition, Krist was joining the Democratic Party, rather than switching from one party to another.
Davis, Krist, and pastor Vanessa Ward (D) will appear on the May 15 primary ballot. The primary is open only to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Nebraska Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 0/3
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Affiliated members of state Senate: 16/49
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland*, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 65.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 36.4 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 128.6 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 100 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Working Families Party endorses anti-IDC candidates for New York Senate
The Working Families Party (WFP) endorsed seven challengers to members of the New York Senate’s Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
The eight member IDC split from mainline Senate Democrats to caucus with Republicans. With the support of IDC members and breakaway Sen. Simcha Felder (D), Republicans have had a working Senate majority since 2011.
Although mainline Democrats and the IDC are working a deal that could possibly return Democrats to the majority, progressive activists, including the WFP, are working to unseat the IDC’s members in the Sept. 13 Democratic primaries.
Democrats contesting most legislative seats since 1982
According to St. Louis University’s Dr. Steven Rogers, more Democratic candidates are running in state legislative districts than at any point since 1982.
In the 16 states where filing deadlines have passed, Democrats are running in 85 percent of legislative districts. Republicans have candidates in 83 percent of districts.
Democrats contested 88 percent of legislative seats in 1982.
Rogers attributed this year’s increased competition “at least partly” to Democratic “hope[s] of riding an anti-Trump wave.”
Rogers said that as a president’s approval ratings decline, more challengers from the opposition party emerge. Trump’s approval rating was roughly 40 percent at the time of Rogers’ analysis.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Jesus "Chuy" Garcia
"Chuy Garcia is set to play a role as a major local and national leader, bringing together the pro-labor, working class politics of the Bernie Sanders movement and the defense of immigrant communities championed by congressman Luis Gutierrez." -Curtis Black, The Chicago Reporter
Cook County Commissioner and 2015 Chicago mayoral candidate Chuy Garcia won the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 4th Congressional District by more than 40 points Tuesday. His victory essentially guaranteed Garcia the seat in this deep blue district. But post election analyses focused on Garcia’s coattails.
Garcia backed Alma Anaya to succeed him on the Cook County Board of Commissioners, Fritz Kaegi for Cook County assessor, Beatriz Frausto-Sandoval for Cook County circuit court, and Delia Ramirez and Aaron Ortiz for the state House. All five candidates won their races.
The Huffington Post and the Chicago Reader say this slate represents a progressive challenge to Chicago's Democratic machine.
Other commentators agreed. NBC 5 Chicago's Carol Marin and Don Moseley said the Cook County results were the real story of the night, and represented "a political earthquake."
What we’re reading
- “Long Weekend at Kamala’s” (City Journal)
- “Democrats have shot at flipping the House if they can stay in the center” (The Hill)
- “Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Want to Be Democrats’ Next National Cause” (Politico)
- “Illinois primary showcases big money and divided parties” (CNBC)
