Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 12 (April 2, 2018)
This week: A flurry of endorsements, Steyer sets debates, and a polling surprise in Florida. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 2 (New Jersey), April 5 (Tennessee)
Passed filing deadlines: 30
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,237 Democrats, 965 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“Newman campaigned as though she viewed left-wing suburban politics as the future — and she counted on voters seeing it that way. In speeches and interviews, she said she was ‘running with the district,’ and referred to polling — not every candidate does that — to prove that her issues were popular.”
- David Weigel, The Washington Post, March 24, 2018
“The question, though, is whether this frenzied activity is accomplishing anything aside from sharpening the party’s ideological edge. If progressives are unable to expand the Democratic Party’s grip beyond big cities and other solidly blue districts, they are stuck right back where they started at the beginning of the Trump era—an influential force trapped within in a powerless minority.”
- Charlie Mahtesian, Politico, March 29, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 52
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Gillibrand endorses Miller in MD-06 Democratic primary
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) endorsed state Del. Aruna Miller (D) (pictured left) in the race for Maryland’s 6th Congressional District.
“[Miller] fought to protect women and children from their abusers, to provide paid sick leave for all Maryland workers and to ensure the next generation is ready to take on the jobs of the future,” Gillibrand said. “I can’t wait to see what she’ll do in Congress.”
Miller’s primary against businessman David Trone (D) could be costly. Trone spent a record $13 million -- including more than $9 million of his own money -- in an unsuccessful 2016 primary bid for Maryland's 8th Congressional District.
NextGen America to host 15 debates in competitive Democratic races
Environmental activist Tom Steyer’s advocacy group NextGen America will host 15 Democratic primary debates in competitive districts and gubernatorial races.
Steyer said the debates will help “make it easier for young voters to get a sense of who the candidates are,” and could lead to an endorsement from the organization. An endorsement might result in financial support, too -- Steyer pledged $30 million to help Democrats win control of the House.
The first House debates are set for California’s 39th, Pennsylvania’s 5th, and Pennsylvania’s 7th.
Biden endorses Feinstein in California Senate race
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) endorsed Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) in the U.S. Senate race in California Thursday, calling the longtime incumbent "tenacious” and “accomplished.”
“[Feinstein is] exactly who we need in the Senate to stand up to this Administration and its Republican allies in Congress,” Biden said.
Biden has also endorsed education advocate Susie Lee (D) in Nevada’s 3rd, Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan in Pennsylvania’s 6th, and former Obama administration official Andy Kim in New Jersey’s 3rd.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Tsutsui endorses Hanabusa in Hawaii gubernatorial primary
Former Hawaii Lt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui (D) endorsed Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI) in her primary challenge to sitting Gov. David Ige (D) Wednesday.
Former Gov. Neil Abercrombie appointed Tsutsui as lieutenant governor in December 2012. Tsutsui was elected to a full term alongside Ige in 2014 after Ige defeated Abercrombie in the Democratic primary. Tsutsui stepped down in January 2018 to accept a position in the private sector.
Four candidates are currently running in the primary. The filing deadline is June 5. The Aug. 11 primary is open to all registered voters.
Hawaii Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 9/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 2/2
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/2
- Seats held in state Senate: 25/25
- Seats held in state House: 45/51
Levine takes lead in Florida poll
A new Public Policy Polling survey of likely Democratic gubernatorial primary voters showed former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine (D) taking the lead over former Rep. Gwen Graham (D).
Local observers pegged Graham as the race’s frontrunner, a view previous polls had confirmed. Graham’s endorsements include U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), U.S. Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), and a number of Florida state legislators and local officials.
Graham positioned herself as a moderate Democrat during her single U.S. House term, and the National Journal ranked her as the most independent member of the Florida delegation.
A self-described “radical centrist ” Levine declared his candidacy in November 2017 and has raised over $10 million, partially through self-funding. Former DNC Chairman and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has endorsed him. His standing in the polls has increased since he announced his candidacy and began pouring funds into television ads.
Before serving as Miami Beach mayor, Levine made millions working in the cruise line industry.
Six candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination. The filing deadline is June 22. The Aug. 28 primary is open to registered Democrats.
Florida Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 4/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 11/27
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 15/40
- Seats held in state House: 41/120
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 43.5 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 13.9 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 95.0 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 65.7 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
New York City comptroller backs IDC challengers
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer (D) is backing two primary challenges to members of the state Senate’s Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
Stringer’s endorsements of Jessica Ramos, who is challenging Sen. Jose Peralta (D-Queens), and Robert Jackson, who is running against Sen. Marisol Alcantara (D-Manhattan), effectively align Stinger with the Party’s progressive wing.
They could also be a sign of things to come. The New York Times calls Stringer a top contender to replace Bill de Blasio as New York City’s mayor in the potentially contentious 2021 election.
The IDC is a group of eight Democrats who, along with Sen. Simcha Felder (D-Brooklyn), caucus with Senate Republicans, giving the GOP a working majority and frustrating Democrats, who won 32 of the chamber’s 63 seats in 2016.
Progressive versus establishment in Kansas state House swing district
In the race to take on Kansas state Rep. Randy Powell (R-30), Democrat Matthew Calcara says his primary opponent, Brandon Woolard, “represents the establishment of the Democratic Party,” and is not in tune with the progressive grassroots.
Woolard says he would be the stronger candidate to take on Powell. According to political scientist Patrick Miller, Powell is “likely one of the most vulnerable” Republican incumbents running for re-election. Hillary Clinton won the District by 3.3 percentage points in 2016.
A Woolard or Calcara win in the general election would send the first openly gay member to the Kansas Legislature. Democrats need to pick up two House seats in November to break the GOP’s supermajority.
Candidate survey reply of the week
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What happened on your most awkward date?
"My date got appendicitis. I drive him to the hospital and stayed for hours. He was in surgery before his family arrived, so I got to explain to them what was happening." - Meghan Scoggins, candidate for Texas’ 28th House of Representatives District
Read all of Meghan Scoggins' responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
NewDemPAC
“These candidates have committed themselves to the bridge-building and big ideas that define the New Democrat Coalition. We welcome them to the team and expect big things from them this year.” Jon Boughtin, NewDemPAC political director
NewDemPAC, the political arm of the New Democrat Coalition, added 16 candidates to its watch list this week, including those running for open seats and those seeking to knock out Republican incumbents.
Being added to the watchlist doesn’t constitute a formal endorsement. However, it does come with a $1,000 check. The group will make a full list of endorsements later this year.
According to Roll Call, NewDemPAC “is closely collaborating with” the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Nine of the DCCC’s first Red to Blue candidates are also on the NewDemPAC's watch list.
One of the most notable additions to the NewDemPAC's list is Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who is running against Laura Moser in the [Texas' 7th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary runoff) runoff for Texas’ 7th Congressional District]]. The DCCC has actively opposed Moser's candidacy in both the primary and the runoff.
NewDemPAC describes itself as “a group of 60 forward-thinking, pro-growth lawmakers committed to seeking pragmatic solutions that will foster a new era of American prosperity at home and keep our families secure from threats around the world.”
House members Joaquin Castro (TX-20), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09), and Jared Polis (CO-02) are among the PAC’s leaders.
What we’re reading
- “How Veterans Are Powering the Democrats’ 2018 Hopes” (Politico)
- “Could Health Care Come Back to Hurt GOP in Midterms?” (Real Clear Politics)
- “Calif. 'Jungle' Primary Presents Concerns for Both Parties” (Real Clear Politics)
- "The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election” (The New York Times)
