Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Nevada's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 16, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jacky Rosen (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Nevada
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+2
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Nevada's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Nevada elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) announced on June 21, 2017, that she would run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 rather than seek re-election to her 3rd District seat in the House.[1] Rosen's election in 2016 marked the third time since the district's inception in 2003 that it had changed party hands.[2]

The 3rd District's history as a swing district and the lack of an incumbent in the race encouraged crowded primaries on both sides of the aisle this year. Philanthropist Susie Lee, who ran for the state's 4th District seat in 2016, has the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's backing in the Democratic primary. She was named in November to its "Red to Blue" list of candidates selected for organizational and fundraising support.[3]

Lee also received early endorsements from all of the Democratic members of the state's congressional delegation, leaders of both chambers of the state Legislature, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and groups like EMILY's List and End Citizens United.

As of March 27, 2018, election forecasters gave the Democratic Party a slight edge to hold the seat in the general election. One outlet rated the 3rd District seat as a Toss-up, one rated it Tilt Democratic, and one rated it Lean Democratic.[4]

Nevada voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 12, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 16, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 15, 2018 (by mail), May 22, 2018 (in person), May 24, 2018 (online)[5]
Absentee application deadlineJune 7, 2018[5]
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeClosed
Early voting deadlineJune 8, 2018[5]
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nevada District 3 on June 12, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Nevada District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Susie Lee
Susie Lee Candidate Connection
 
66.9
 
25,475
Image of Michael Weiss
Michael Weiss
 
8.2
 
3,115
Image of Eric Stoltz
Eric Stoltz Candidate Connection
 
7.2
 
2,759
Image of Jack Love
Jack Love Candidate Connection
 
5.8
 
2,208
Image of Richard Hart
Richard Hart
 
4.9
 
1,847
Image of Steve Schiffman
Steve Schiffman
 
3.5
 
1,338
Image of Guy Pinjuv
Guy Pinjuv
 
3.5
 
1,331

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 38,073
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic Party factional conflict

See also: Democratic Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between candidates endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and candidates outside the official organs of the Democratic Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

The DCCC, a campaign arm of the Democratic National Committee, endorsed candidates who party leaders believed had the best chance of defeating Republican incumbents.[6]

Some criticized the DCCC's choices. Ryan Grim and Lee Fang wrote in The Intercept, for example, "In district after district, the national party is throwing its weight behind candidates who are out of step with the national mood."[7]

In this primary, the DCCC endorsed Susie Lee.[6]

The chart below shows a scorecard for how the DCCC performed in competitive Democratic primaries that featured at least one DCCC-endorsed candidate and one other Democratic candidate.

U.S. House Democratic factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018
Endorsed by DCCC 31
Not endorsed by DCCC 2

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[8]
Democratic Party Democrats



Endorsements

Ballotpedia tracks endorsements of candidates by organizations and elected officials. As of March 23, 2018, we have located the following endorsements in this race. To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Lee[9]
Federal officials
Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States ✔
Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. senator ✔
Ruben Kihuen, U.S. representative ✔
Jacky Rosen, U.S. representative ✔
Dina Titus, U.S. representative ✔
Richard Bryan, former U.S. senator ✔
Harry Reid, former U.S. senator ✔
State figures
Aaron Ford, Nevada state Senate majority leader ✔
Kelvin Atkinson, Nevada state senator ✔
Yvanna Cancela, Nevada state senator ✔
Nicole Cannizzaro, Nevada state senator ✔
Joyce Woodhouse, Nevada state senator ✔
Jason Frierson, Nevada state Assembly speaker ✔
Organizations
American Federation of Government Employees ✔
EMILY's List ✔
End Citizens United ✔
Giffords: Courage to Fight Gun Violence ✔
Human Rights Campaign ✔
IBEW Local 357 Las Vegas ✔
League of Conservation Voters ✔
NARAL Pro-Choice America ✔
Nevada State Education Association ✔
NewDemPAC[10] ✔
SEIU Nevada Local 1107 ✔
Southern Nevada Building and Construction Trades Council ✔

Democratic district won by Donald Trump

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[11] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.


2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran D+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Democratic Party Dave Loebsack D+12.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Cheri Bustos D+23.6 Trump+0.7 Obama+17.0
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn R+0.4 Trump+14.9 Obama+1.4
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Democratic Party Collin Peterson D+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber R+5.5 Trump+15.6 Obama+5.5
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas D+11.7 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer D+11.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.1
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee D+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney D+10.2 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright[12] Democratic Party Matt Cartwright D+9.2 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb[13] Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler R+15.9 Trump+29.0 Romney+17.7
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Democratic Party Ron Kind D+19.4 Trump+4.5 Obama+11.0


Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Democratic Tilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Nevada. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Nevada with 47.9 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 45.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1868 and 2016, Nevada voted Republican 51 percent of the time and Democratic 46 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Nevada voted Democratic three times and Republican the other two.[14]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in Nevada. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 26 out of 42 state Assembly districts in Nevada with an average margin of victory of 28.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 25 out of 42 state Assembly districts in Nevada with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 16 out of 42 state Assembly districts in Nevada with an average margin of victory of 15.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 17 out of 42 state Assembly districts in Nevada with an average margin of victory of 18.6 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Nevada's 3rd Congressional District the 224th most Republican nationally.[17]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[18]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Nevada heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Nevada State Legislature. They had a 27-14 majority in the state Assembly and a 10-8 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Nevada was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Brian Sandoval (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Nevada elections, 2018

Nevada held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Nevada
 NevadaU.S.
Total population:2,883,758316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):109,7813,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:69%73.6%
Black/African American:8.4%12.6%
Asian:7.7%5.1%
Native American:1.1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.6%0.2%
Two or more:4.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:27.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.1%86.7%
College graduation rate:23%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$51,847$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Nevada.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Nevada's three largest cities were Las Vegas (pop. est. 640,000), Henderson (pop. est. 300,000), and Reno (pop. est. 250,000).[19]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Nevada from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Nevada Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Nevada every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Nevada 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.9% Republican Party Donald Trump 45.5% 2.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.4% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.7% 6.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 55.1% Republican Party John McCain 42.7% 12.4%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.5% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.9% 2.6%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 49.5% Democratic Party Al Gore 45.9% 3.6%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Nevada from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Nevada 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Catherine Cortez Masto 47.1% Republican Party Joe Heck 44.7% 2.4%
2012 Republican Party Dean Heller 45.9% Democratic Party Shelley Berkley 44.7% 1.2%
2010 Democratic Party Harry Reid 50.3% Republican Party Sharron Angle 44.6% 5.7%
2006 Republican Party John Ensign 55.4% Democratic Party Jack Carter 41.0% 14.4%
2004 Democratic Party Harry Reid 61.1% Republican Party Richard Ziser 35.1% 26.0%
2000 Republican Party John Ensign 55.0% Democratic Party Ed Bernstein 39.7% 15.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Nevada.

Election results (Governor), Nevada 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Brian Sandoval 70.6% Democratic Party Bob Goodman 23.9% 46.7%
2010 Republican Party Brian Sandoval 53.4% Democratic Party Rory Reid 41.6% 11.8%
2006 Republican Party Jim Gibbons 47.9% Democratic Party Dina Titus 43.9% 4.0%
2002 Republican Party Kenny Guinn 68.1% Democratic Party Joe Neal 22.0% 46.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Nevada in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Nevada 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 25.0% Democratic Party 3 75.0% D+2
2014 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2012[20] Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Even
2010 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2006 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2004 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2002[21] Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2000 Republican Party 1 50.0% Democratic Party 1 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Nevada Party Control: 1992-2025
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D D
House D D D S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ AP News, "US Rep. Jacky Rosen to run for Senate in key Nevada race," June 21, 2017
  2. ↑ Nevada Legislature, "Summary of 2001 redistricting legislation," accessed January 30, 2018
  3. ↑ The Nevada Independent, "Susie Lee, running in swingy House district, added to Democrats' 'Red to Blue' priority seat program," November 15, 2017
  4. ↑ Ratings are based on projections found in Governing, Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and The Cook Political Report. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Nevada Secretary of State, "2018 calendar of events," accessed January 15, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 DCCC, "Red to Blue Candidates," accessed May 15, 2018
  7. ↑ The Intercept, "THE DEAD ENDERS: Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First," January 23, 2018
  8. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  9. ↑ Susie Lee for Congress, "Supporters," accessed March 23, 2018
  10. ↑ Roll Call, "New Democrats' PAC endorses first 16 candidates for 2018," March 9, 2018
  11. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  12. ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
  13. ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
  14. ↑ 270towin.com, "Nevada," accessed August 3, 2017
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  18. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  19. ↑ Nevada Demographics, "Nevada Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2017
  20. ↑ Nevada gained a fourth seat in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2010 census.
  21. ↑ Nevada gained a third seat in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2000 census.


Nevada's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Catherine Masto (D)
Jacky Rosen (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Susie Lee (D)
District 4
Democratic Party (5)
Republican Party (1)


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