Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 13 (April 9, 2018)
This week: New ads, more endorsements, legal wrangling, and a New York Senate deal. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 9 (North Dakota), April 12 (New York), April 13 (Oklahoma)
Passed filing deadlines: 32
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,237 Democrats, 960 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
"Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a Republican, warned Wednesday that there's ‘a risk of a blue wave in Wisconsin.’ If he's right, a national wave of energized Democratic voters would probably swamp challenges to the party's prospects posed by local problems like Esty's retirement. But there's no guarantee that such a wave will materialize, which keeps party strategists awake at night."
- Albert Hunt, Bloomberg, April 5, 2018
"Obviously, there’s no guarantee that these patterns will hold up in the midterms. But what we’re seeing so far is a recipe for a strong Democratic wave that’s based fundamentally on a rejection of some of the big dichotomies that rapidly arose in November 2016 — Democrats are showing a real ability to win back a healthy slice of the white working-class voters who swung to Trump without ceding the educated suburban professionals whom he repulsed back to the GOP."
- Matthew Yglesias, Vox, April 5, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 53
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Gray and McGrath release TV ads as KY-06 Democratic primary heats up
Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (D) and retired Lt. Col. Amy McGrath (D)
released new campaign ads in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District—a race Vox’s Ella Nilsen called "an intraparty debate about how Democrats can best compete in rural, red-leaning districts.”
Gray’s ads emphasize his desire to work past partisan politics. He has consistently highlighted his electability in the general. Gray won 51 percent of the district’s vote in his 2016 Senate bid against Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
McGrath’s ad focuses on her motherhood and military experience. McGrath is no stranger to the power of video. She became a “national sensation” when her first ad earned more than 1.7 million views.
Esty becomes 53rd House incumbent not to seek re-election
Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D-Conn.) is not seeking re-election following criticism of how she handled sexual harassment allegations against her former chief of staff.
“In the terrible situation in my office, I could have and should have done better," Esty said.
Two-time lieutenant governor candidate Mary Glassman (D) entered the race and state Rep. Michelle Cook (D) is considering a run. Hillary Clinton won Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District 50 percent to 46 percent.
Van Drew locks up party support, but not progressives, in NJ-02
Party officials rallied around state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-N.J.) to turn New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District blue. All of the District’s eight party lines backed Van Drew, and he was named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program.
Van Drew’s 100 percent rating from the NRA, however, has left progressives skeptical of his candidacy.
The group South Jersey Women for Progressive Change, which hosted a candidate forum Van Drew did not attend, posted on its Facebook page that it has “no confidence that Jeff Van Drew would vote with Democrats for common sense gun laws that our country desperately needs.”
Politico reported “New Jersey progressives say state and national Democrats—quick to embrace their movement in North Jersey districts—are ignoring them in South Jersey.”
Biden endorses in toss-up NJ-11 race
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) endorsed U.S. Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill (D) in the race for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. Ballotpedia is tracking Biden’s endorsements throughout the election cycle.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Apodaca promises appeal in legal fight over Cervantes petitions
In New Mexico, businessman and gubernatorial candidate Jeff Apodaca (D), promises to appeal a lower court ruling dismissing his challenge of the nominating petitions of fellow candidate state Sen. Joseph Cervantes' (D).
Apodaca’s initial suit claimed more than one in four Cervantes’ signatures were either duplicates or were not from registered Democrats.
A judge dismissed the lawsuit Thursday, ruling Apodaca had not served papers to the state attorney general's office, a requirement when filing a lawsuit to which the secretary of state is party. The Apodaca campaign says it intends to appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court.
Cervantes had to submit 5,014 signatures in order to appear on the June 5 primary ballot because he received less than 20 percent of the vote at the state nominating convention.
Apodaca, Cervantes, and Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham are seeking the Democratic nomination. Apodaca and Grisham each received more than 20 percent of the vote at the nominating convention and are guaranteed a spot on the June 5 primary ballot. Cervantes will also appear if his nominating petitions are found to contain the required 5,014 valid signatures. The primary is open only to registered Democrats.
New Mexico Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 2/3
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 3/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 26/42
- Seats held in state House: 38/70
Hanabusa scores additional endorsements
Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's (D-HI) picked up endorsements from the Hawaii Organization of Police Officers and members of the state Legislature's Democratic leadership for her primary challenge to Gov. David Ige (D).
Senate President Ron Kouchi (D), House Speaker Scott Saiki (D), Senate Ways and Means Committee Chairman Donovan Dela Cruz (D), and House Finance Committee Chairwoman Sylvia Luke (D) issued their joint endorsement of Hanabusa March 29.
Three Democratic candidates have entered the primary against Ige. The filing deadline is June 5. The Aug. 11 primary is open to all registered voters.
The only time an incumbent governor lost a primary election came in 2014, when Ige defeated then-Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D).
Hawaii Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 9/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 2/2
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/2
- Seats held in state Senate: 25/25
- Seats held in state House: 45/51
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 39.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 9.9 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 69.4 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 57.2 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
All about New York
Things are moving fast in the New York Senate as Democrats try to regain the majority. Here’s the latest:
Democratic caucus (mostly) reunites in New York Senate
The Democratic caucus has reunited in the New York Senate, undercutting a group of progressive challengers who were taking aim at the eight members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
Led by Sen. Jeff Klein (D-The Bronx), the IDC has aligned with Republicans since 2012, giving the GOP control of the chamber even though Democrats often had a numerical majority.
Klein and mainline Democratic leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers) agreed to reunify April 4 at the behest of Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D).
Cuomo is facing former Sex and the City actress Cynthia Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Nixon is running to his left, saying that he has enabled the IDC and allowed Republicans to control the state Senate.
Seven of the now-former IDC members still face primary challenges. However, the Cuomo deal prevents incumbent senators from supporting primaries against their fellow members.
Simcha Felder: Kingmaker
With the reunification deal set, all eyes in New York are on a pair of special elections April 24 and next move by Sen. Simcha Felder (D-Brooklyn).
Even with the IDC reunification, Republicans maintain a 32-29 majority in the chamber because two Democratic seats are vacant and Felder--who is not an IDC member-- caucuses with the GOP.
Democrats need to win both special elections and convince Felder to rejoin their caucus if they want to control the chamber ahead of the 2018 elections.
Felder is waiting until after the special elections before deciding which party to back. He said he will join the party that can do more for his heavily Orthodox Jewish district and policy priorities.
Felder used his pivotal role in the state Senate to maximize his leverage during budget negotiations in late March. He pushed for loosening state education regulations on private religious schools like yeshivas and eventually secured a compromise measure after holding up the talks.
Critical special election in Westchester
The Democratic path to the majority runs through District 37 in Westchester County, where Shelley Mayer (D) and Julie Killian (R) are competing in a special election to replace George Latimer (D) on April 24.
Both parties are making a play for the traditionally Democratic seat. Cuomo and Stewart-Cousins are backing Mayer, while former Gov. George Pataki (R) has endorsed Killian.
The other April 24 special election is for District 32 in the Bronx, a safe Democratic seat.
Felder said this election is critical to deciding where he goes next.
Looking ahead to November
Democratic insiders weighed in on the reunification. According the New York Daily News:
“The best move [is] to ride the blue wave to pick up multiple Republican and [IDC] seats and not have to worry about being held hostage,” said an operative who opposed the reunification.
“It’s important to break the coalition now,” said an insider who was skeptical the IDC would reunify following the November elections.
“It doesn’t matter who the cast of characters are, you don’t want to be dependent on a single member — especially when he doesn’t agree with most of what you want to do,” said a senator who does not want to have a 32-31 majority with Simcha Felder.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey and you may be featured here.
What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official?
"To be a good leader I feel you need to be ethical, accountable, have a passion to help, be willing to listen more than talk, know where to locate resources and when to use them, and to keep people at the heart of all you do."
- Amie Neiling, candidate for Indiana’s 32nd House of Representatives District
Read all of Amie Neiling's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
EMILY’s List
“Given that there are so many races on the map this cycle, we have to be strategic about where we make decisions about resources and that means targeting states and districts where we can make the most difference and elect the most women.” -Christina Reynolds, vice president of communications for EMILY’s List
The pro-choice group EMILY’s List has backed more than 40 female candidates for the U.S. House and spent more than $1 million in support of its endorsed candidates in 2018. This week, the group backed Dr. Hiral Tipirneni (D) in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. It aso endorsed Maura Sullivan (D) in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District.
EMILY’s List has endorsed many of the same candidates as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). They have overlapping endorsements in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, and Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.
Progressives have criticized the two groups’ closeness. Writing in Splinter, Clio Chang questioned “whether or not EMILY’s List’s parameters are too broad to effectively harness progressive energy in 2018.”
When asked whether the group should engage in intraparty battles, EMILY’s List vice president of communication Christina Reynolds said the group is “in the business of electing pro-choice Democratic women who will be champions for women and hardworking families.”
“That just isn’t possible without defending a woman’s right to choose, full stop.”
What we’re reading
- “'Year of the Woman 2': Pa. primary drawing historic numbers” (Penn Live)
- “‘Heretic.’ ‘Maverick.’ ‘Opportunist.’ ‘Advocate.’ Who is the real Simcha Felder?” (City & State New York)
- “Be Skeptical Of Anyone Who Tells You They Know How Democrats Can Win In November” (FiveThirtyEight)
- “The Left’s Year of Magical Thinking” (Politico)
