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Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jason Lewis (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+2
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Minnesota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Healthcare executive Angie Craig (D), who was seeking a rematch against incumbent Rep. Jason Lewis (R), was the only Democratic candidate on the ballot.

High school teacher Jeff Erdmann (D) competed in the primary but failed to make the ballot. He had the backing of the People's House Project, which was founded by Krystal Ball to support working-class candidates.[1]

Lewis was first elected in 2016 by two points, and this swing district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by one-tenth of a percentage point and Donald Trump (R) in 2016 by one point.[2] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.[3]

Minnesota voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionAugust 14, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineJune 5, 2018
Registration deadlineAugust 14, 2018
Absentee application deadlineAugust 13, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Early voting deadlineAugust 14, 2018
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:



Candidates and election results

Angie Craig advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 2 on August 14, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 2

Candidate
✔
Image of Angie Craig
Angie Craig

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jason Lewis Republican Party $2,925,836 $2,928,310 $7,363 As of December 31, 2018
Angie Craig Democratic Party $5,625,311 $5,550,422 $87,391 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Endorsements

Democratic Party Angie Craig

Federal officials

Organizations


Democratic Party Jeff Erdmann

Organizations

  • People's House Project[1]


Campaign tactics and strategies

Criticism of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Edrmann criticized the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) for its support of Craig in the race, alleging in March 2018 that its decision to support her was based primarily on her fundraising ability. "To feel that they need to come in and put their thumb on the scale for the candidate that has all kinds of personal wealth, you know that's frustrating that they're trying to taint the system," he said.[6]

Although the DCCC gave its support to Craig, it has not campaigned against other Democratic candidates in the race.[6]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[12]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[13][14]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District the 221st most Republican nationally.[15]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[16]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.

Trifecta status

  • Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Minnesota elections, 2018

Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Minnesota
 MinnesotaU.S.
Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
Asian:4.4%5.1%
Native American:1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,492$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[17]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.4% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.9% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.0% 7.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.1% Republican Party John McCain 43.8% 10.3%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 3.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.5% 2.4%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Al Franken 53.2% Republican Party Mike McFadden 42.9% 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 65.2% Republican Party Kurt Bills 30.5% 34.7%
2008 Democratic Party Al Franken 41.99% Republican Party Norm Coleman 41.98% 0.01%
2006 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 58.1% Republican Party Mark Kennedy 37.9% 20.2%
2002 Republican Party Norm Coleman 49.5% Democratic Party Walter Mondale 47.3% 2.2%
2000 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 48.8% Republican Party Rod Grams 43.3% 5.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.

Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 50.1% Republican Party Jeff Johnson 44.5% 5.6%
2010 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 43.6% Republican Party Tom Emmer 43.2% 0.4%
2006 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 46.7% Democratic Party Mike Hatch 45.7% 1.0%
2002 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 44.4% Democratic Party Roger Moe 36.5% 7.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Minnesota 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2014 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2012 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2010 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2002 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2000 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R I I I I R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R D D
House D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 The Intercept, "Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First," January 23, 2018
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017
  3. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 [https://www.angiecraig.com/endorsements/ Angie Craig for Congress, "Endorsements, accessed January 31, 2018.
  5. ↑ Roll Call, "New Democrats' PAC endorses first 16 candidates for 2018," March 9, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 MPR News, "Some DFLers say Washington Democrats are 'bigfooting' Minn. congressional races," March 26, 2018
  7. ↑ Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Craig gets rematch against Lewis in 2nd Congressional District," April 14, 2018
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  16. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  17. ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018


Minnesota's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Tom Emmer (R)
District 7
District 8
Democratic Party (6)
Republican Party (4)


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