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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 14 (April 16, 2018)
This week: Feinstein and Villaraigosa get boosts, new polls, new endorsements...and do some races have too many candidates? Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 24 (Michigan), May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 35
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,232 Democrats, 969 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s retirement announcement on Wednesday blindsided many House Republican candidates and their campaign leaders who were counting on him to lead them to victory in the November midterm elections. His decision to leave Congress at 48 sent an undeniably pessimistic message to Republicans: that stable, steady leadership is lacking in their deeply divided party as they head into a campaign season defined by the whims of President Trump.” - Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, The New York Times, April 11, 2018
“Will Ryan’s lame-duck status make it easier for Democrats to gain 23 seats? [Rep. Rodney] Davis said Ryan — now not having to worry about his own re-election bid — will be able to ‘dedicate more time’ to ‘re-elect a Republican majority.’” - Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times, April 11, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 54
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Brown endorses Feinstein in California Senate race
California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) endorsed incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) for U.S. Senate, calling her “exactly the right person to ensure that [President] Trump is held accountable."
Feinstein has received support from other party leaders, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D).
The California Democratic Party declined to endorse her at its annual convention in February. According to the Washington Post, Feinstein is "the first incumbent senator in recent memory who will run in June’s primary without official backing.”
Internal polling shows Gray leading KY-6, but McGrath questions his electability
Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (D) released an internal poll showing him leading Marine Amy McGrath’s (D) 52 percent to 19 percent, with 23 percent undecided in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District primary. McGrath campaign manager Mark Nickolas, however, questioned Gray’s electability.
Nickolas said, “recently general election polling shows Amy outperforming Gray by 20 points in a general election matchup and that’s why you’re seeing [incumbent Rep.] Andy Barr constantly attacking Amy McGrath, never Jim Gray.”
A McGrath internal poll of potential general election matchups released in February showed Gray with a substantial lead in name ID -- 90 to 45 percent. But when the poll narrowed the field to those who knew the candidates, McGrath lead incumbent Rep. Barr 60 to 38. Gray also lead Barr, 50 to 48.
New fundraising data showed Gray raised $790,000 in the first quarter, topping McGrath’s $665,000 haul.
Large numbers of candidates pose challenges for state and local parties
In Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 5th Congressional District, the Delaware County Democratic Party declined to endorse any of the 12 candidates after four rounds of balloting failed to produce a candidate receiving the 55 percent support necessary to earn the party’s formal backing. Attorneys Mary Gay Scanlon (D) and Ashley Lunkenheimer (D) are the top candidate in that contest.
On the other side of the country, California party officials are trying to prevent large fields of Democrats from splitting the vote in the state’s top-two primaries. Party leaders fear this could result in general elections without a Democratic contender.
Some candidates are taking it on themselves to avoid that scenario.
In California’s 48th Congressional District, where 16 candidates are on the ballot, former Nestle executive Michael Kotick (D) withdrew from the race and endorsed businessman Harley Rouda (D).
DFL declines to endorse in MN-08, setting up primary battle
The Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party declined to endorse any candidate in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District at its multi-ballot district convention Saturday. Former FBI analyst Leah Phifer (D) and former state Rep. Joe Radinovich (D) were the remaining candidates on the tenth and final ballot, but neither crossed the 60 percent threshold of support necessary for an endorsement.
Phifer said, "We were consistently ahead on all 10 ballots which I think means we built the strongest ground game across all 18 counties and made sure no voices were left unheard."
Radinovich highlighted an endorsement from incumbent Rep. Rick Nolan (D) at the convention. Nolan's office later clarified that it was a preference rather than an endorsement and noted that Nolan “will reserve judgment until he sees who decides to run in the primary."
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Kennedy, Polis secure place on ballot in Colorado primary
At the Democratic Party of Colorado's state assembly Saturday, former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D) and Rep. Jared Polis (D) were granted placement on the June 26 primary ballot in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D).
To secure a place on the ballot, candidates needed to receive at least 30 percent of the vote at the state assembly or turn in petitions from 1,500 registered party members in each of the state's seven congressional districts.
At the assembly, Kennedy led the vote with 61.65 percent support, followed by Polis at 32.85 percent. Sen. Michael Johnston (D) secured a spot on the ballot via signatures. The Colorado secretary of state is still verifying signatures submitted by a fourth candidate, Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne (D).
The June 26 primary is open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Colorado Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 16/35
- Seats held in state House: 36/65
Netflix CEO, KB Homes cofounder give $8.5 million to Pro-Villaraigosa committee
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings and KB Homes cofounder Eli Broad made major contributions to Families & Teachers for Antonio Villaraigosa for Governor 2018, a committee supporting the bid of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's (D).
Hastings gave the committee $7 million Wednesday, with Broad donating $1.5 million Thursday. Although the committee may not coordinate its communications with the Villaraigosa campaign, it is exempt from the state’s individual contribution limits. The committee’s sponsoring organization, the California Charter Schools Association Advocates has endorsed Villaraigosa.
Twenty-eight candidates, including 12 Democrats, are running in the primary. All of them will appear on the same ballot in the June 5 top-two primary, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election regardless of partisan affiliation.
California Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 39/53
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 7/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 26/40
- Seats held in state Assembly: 52/80
Working Families Party endorses Nixon
The Working Families Party (WFP) endorsed actress Cynthia Nixon's (D) primary challenge to incumbent New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) Saturday after Cuomo earlier announced his withdrawal from the nominating process.
Cuomo’s withdrawal prompted both the Service Employees International Union and Communications Workers of America, each of whom has endorsed Cuomo, to leave the WFP.
The WFP had endorsed Cuomo’s 2014 re-election campaign when he faced a primary challenge from law professor Zephyr Teachout (D).
Because the WFP has its own ballot line, the endorsement means that Nixon will appear on the November 6 general election ballot even if she does not obtain the Democratic nomination in the Sept. 13 primary, which is open to registered Democrats only.
New York Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 8/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 17/26
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/4
- Seats held in state Senate: 30/63
- Seats held in state Assembly: 102/150
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 38.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 7.9 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 65.2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 61.4 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Challenger takes aim at longtime incumbent in Arkansas Senate primary
Arkansas state Sen. Linda Chesterfield is facing James Pendleton in her first competitive primary since 2010.
Pendleton’s challenge comes as Chesterfield faces questions over her work as a paid consultant for Preferred Family Healthcare of Springfield. PFH was recently implicated in embezzlement and legislative bribery and is the subject of an FBI investigation.
Attorney Eric Spencer Buchanan, an important figure in Little Rock’s African-American community, supports Pendleton, who wants to focus on education, jobs, and gun policy.
Chesterfield’s key issues are education and health care.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
"I delivered flyers for a local pizza company. Most of the job was dodging dogs and sprinklers."
- Jeff Jackson, incumbent and candidate for North Carolina’s 37th State Senate District
Read all of Jeff Jackson's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
350 Action
“It’s exciting to see the leaders of the future emerging and demanding fossil free solutions in their states.” -Bill McKibben, 350 co-founder
The environmentalist group 350 Action says it is “endorsing candidates [in 2018] up and down the ballot who are willing to fight for the fossil free future we need by supporting a rapid, just transition to 100% renewable energy and opposing any new climate-wrecking fossil fuel projects.”
The group has joined progressive organizations such as Justice Democrats and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee in backing Greg Edwards in the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District. The group has also endorsed Ben Jealous for Maryland governor, Debra Haaland for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, and Cathy Glasson for Iowa governor.
It has also endorsed Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. According to the USA Herald, Gillum is the “far-left choice” in the primary.
What we’re reading
- “Flipping Script, Dems Attack GOP on Fiscal Responsibility” (Real Clear Politics)
- “In Red-State Races, Democrats Seek an Edge by Defying the N.R.A.” (The New York Times)
- “Watch Out, Ted Cruz. Beto is Coming.” (The New York Times)
- “Stop Trying To Make Beto Happen; Ted Cruz Will Trounce Him And Here’s Why” (RedState)
