Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 15 (April 23, 2018)
This week: Special elections in Arizona and New York, Tom Steyer endorses in California Senate race, and Lipinksi’s debt to Trump supporters. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 24 (Michigan), May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 35
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,226 Democrats, 961 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“Even in a corrupt and gerrymandered political system such as this one, elections are ultimately decided at the margins rather than in the party heartlands. And right now everything indicates that in competitive areas of the country the G.O.P. will be crushed.” - John Cassidy, The New Yorker, April 18, 2018
“A lot can happen between now and November, never mind that Senate Democrats are at an extreme disadvantage, that gerrymandering can curb the generic ballot by a lot, meaning there are plenty of R+whatever districts. Democrats will also remind you that Republicans are going to dramatically outspend them.” - Dylan Scott, Vox, April 12, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 54
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District special election preview
Physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) faces former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) in Tuesday’s Arizona 8th Congressional District special election.
Even though the district leans Republican, and backed the GOP presidential nominee by 20 points or more in each of the past three election cycles, national groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Republican National Committee have spent nearly $900,000 supporting Lesko.
Tipirneni defeated sales manager Brianna Westbrook (D) by 20 points in the Democratic primary.
Steyer endorses de León in California Senate race
Billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer endorsed state Senate President Kevin de León (D) over incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) in the California Senate race Wednesday.
“I just believe Kevin is the true progressive and he reflects something we need representing California,” Steyer said.
Steyer, who has spent $50 million this year calling for President Donald Trump (R)’s impeachment and registering young voters, declined to say if he would financially support de Léon’s campaign.
Feinstein has $10 million cash on hand to De León’s $670,000.
Brookings study shows Trump voters backed Lipinski
A Brookings Institution analysis of Rep. Dan Lipinski's (D-Ill.) two-point win over Marie Newman (D) in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District found one in five Lipinski voters supported President Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election.
One in 20 Newman supporters backed Trump.
Brookings offered two possible explanations on why so many Trump supporters participated in the Democratic primary.
First, the district’s large number of conservative Democrats—“mostly white, blue-collar union members who voted for Reagan.”
Second, Trump supporters chose to ignore the uncontested GOP primary -- where the Party had disavowed its own candidate -- and instead voted for the more conservative candidate in the competitive Democratic primary.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Planned Parenthood endorses Abrams
Planned Parenthood endorsed former state Rep. Stacey Abrams' (D) bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Georgia.
Abrams faces former state Rep. Stacey Evans (D) in the May 22 primary, which is open to all registered voters.
Planned Parenthood Southeast President Staci Fox did not comment on the group’s process for selecting Abrams over Evans, but said, “we felt like Stacey Abrams was the candidate who best reflected our work and the patients that we serve across the state of Georgia.”
A University of Georgia poll released Thursday showed Abrams leading Evans 33 to 15 percent, with 52 percent undecided.
“The Democratic primary would appear to be a wide-open affair at this point in time,” said UGA pollster and political scientist M.V. Hood. “A large share of reliable primary voters have yet to tune in.”
The poll of 473 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted April 12 through April 18. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Georgia Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 2/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/14
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/8
- Seats held in state Senate: 19/56
- Seats held in state House: 64/180
Walz leads Minnesota money race
Fundraising reports for Minnesota’s Democratic gubernatorial candidates show that Rep. Tim Walz (D) raised $1.7 million, far ahead of state Rep. Erin Murphy's (D) $500,000 and state Auditor Rebecca Otto's (D) $490,000.
Walz got an additional boost Monday, when Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) endorsed his candidacy.
Delegates to the state party’s June convention will decide which candidate gets the party nod. Murphy and Otto have each said they will suspend their campaigns if they don’t get the endorsement.
The Aug. 14 primary is open to all registered voters.
Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 10/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 4/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 5/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 33/67
- Seats held in state House: 57/134
Baker, Jealous score endorsements in Maryland
Former Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening (D) endorsed Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker's (D) (pictured right) bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
The Maryland State Education Association endorsed former NAACP President Ben Jealous (D) (pictured left) the previous weekend.
Nine Democrats are running in the June 26 primary, which is open only to registered Democrats.
Maryland Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 8/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 7/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/4
- Seats held in state Senate: 32/47
- Seats held in state House: 91/141
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 37.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 7.7 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 65.2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 61.4 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Control of NY Senate up for grabs in District 37 special election
A special election for New York State Senate District 37 Tuesday could help determine whether Democrats retake control of the chamber in 2018.
Democrats came close to a majority when a deal struck earlier this month brought eight members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) back into the party’s ranks. Before the reunification, the eight IDC members caucused with Republicans, giving the GOP operating control of the Senate.
Seven of the former IDC members still face progressive challengers in their respective primaries.
Even with the IDC members’ return, Democrats still need to win the District 37 and the more-safely Democratic District 32 races to reach a 32-31 majority.
But there’s a twist: state Sen. Simcha Felder (D), who currently caucuses with Republicans, won’t decide whether he will join the Democratic caucus until the results of the District 37 race are known. If Democrats win the seat, Felder may rejoin the caucus. If he does, Democrats will control it for the first time since 2010.
We spoke to Gus Christensen (pictured right), chief strategist of the progressive organization NO IDC NY, about what’s at stake in the District 37 race and the effect the IDC reunification deal will have on the primary challenges.
What is at stake in the upcoming special election?
We expect both Shelley Mayer (Democrat running for District 37) and Luis Sepulveda (Democrat running for District 32) to win their special elections by large margins, despite the concern about Mayer's race that seems to be widespread in the press.
At that point, there are two possible outcomes: either Republican John Flanagan remains as Senate Majority Leader or he doesn't, and it appears that the fulcrum on that will be Simcha Felder, giving him another dose of unearned and unwarranted power. I shudder to think of the terrible things that he might demand in exchange for his vote from either side.
Governor Andrew Cuomo has already come out with his list of legislative priorities should Felder cross the aisle and the Democrats take control of the Senate. He wants limited action on voting rights and campaign finance reform, gun control and criminal justice reform.
While all of these are important areas for progressive change that has been held back for far too long by the GOP in the state Senate and its IDC enablers, everyone should be aware that these are all "free" things, as in things that will not require New York State to spend an incremental extra dime, and therefore will not require New York State to reverse any of Cuomo's tax cuts on the wealthiest New Yorkers. So even when Cuomo caves to progressive demands, he still does everything he can to protect his donor base.
What effect will the reunification deal have on primary challenges to former IDC members?
The reunification "deal" does not appear to be taking any significant wind out of the challengers' sails, because the horses have left the barn on this.
There is no excuse for it. Pretending that it never happened and that the Democratic Party is "unified" now isn't going to cut it with anyone who has been paying attention to Albany lately.
In practical terms, fundraising and activist support for the primary challengers is still strong, and we are going to carry this fight through to September and win a lot of these primaries.
This fight is not over. Ideological primaries are healthy. It's the New York State Democratic Party that has been sick for too long, and taking the IDC back is not the cure. Winning these primaries is the cure, and putting these real Democrats in Albany is the solution.
NC Rep. touts Democratic endorsement; state and national parties deny their support
A mailer by North Carolina state Rep. Duane Hall's (D) campaign for re-election in District 11 features the Democratic National Committee's logo under the words "endorsed by."
According to PolitiFact, "the Wake County Democratic Party, NC Democratic Party and Democratic National Committee all denied making any primary endorsements at all." PolitiFact found that both the county and state parties had promoted Hall's candidacy in the 2014 and 2016 general elections.
Hall denied allegations of sexual misconduct made against him in February. State party chairman Wayne Goodman and Gov. Roy Cooper (D) have called for his resignation.
Hall will face Allison Dahle in the North Carolina's May 8 state legislative primaries.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What do you perceive to be your state's greatest challenges over the next decade?
"Addressing the need for universal healthcare, education reform the opioid epidemic, gun reform and the Fight for $15 will be the state's greatest challenges over the next decade."
- Yvonka Hall, candidate for Ohio’s 12th House of Representatives District
Read all of Yvonka Hall's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Working Families Party
“The Working Families Party (WFP) was created by labor unions, community organizations and progressive activists to advance an agenda and elect candidates who improve the lives of working people...From raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour...The latest developments show that the current leadership of the WFP disagrees with that approach, and we have been unable to convince them otherwise.” -Joint statement from 32BJ SEIU President Héctor Figueroa and Communications Workers of America Local 1 vice president Dennis Trainor
The Working Families Party’s (WFP) endorsement of “Sex and the City” star and self-described progressive Cynthia Nixon (D) over Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in the New York gubernatorial primary caused a split in the party’s membership.
Shortly before the WFP endorsed Nixon, seven unions withdrew from the party, including 32BJ SEIU and the Communications Workers of America Local 1, which backed Cuomo in the race.
The WFP endorsed Cuomo in 2014.
According to its website, a WFP endorsement is “like a progressive seal of approval: it means these candidates can be counted on to fight for us on the issues that matter most, from fair funding of public schools and living wage jobs to ending mass incarceration and getting big money out of politics.”
The WFP has made more than 50 endorsements so far this year, including Ammar Campa-Najjar for California’s 50th Congressional District, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, and Stacey Abrams for governor of Georgia.
What we’re reading
- “Primary Fights Are Draining the Democrats’ Coffers” (Bloomberg)
- “Dem Challengers Outraise GOP Incumbents in Key Races” (Real Clear Politics)
- “Trump’s State” (The Weekly Standard)
- “Trumpism Without Trump” (Politico)
