Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 16 (April 30, 2018)
This week: Hoyer caught on tape, Raimondo gets another challenger, Levin sues for ballot access, and Mendoza seeks a comeback. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 36
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,211 Democrats, 952 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“Independent voters in North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia are not going to decide to vote for these incumbents based on this single confirmation vote.
“Maybe Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin truly believe Pompeo is suited for this job. So be it, if that is true. But if they are just playing politics and casting an ‘insurance vote,’ they will see little or no benefit.” - Mark Plotkin, The Hill, April 27, 2018
“Preserving those senators’ political futures is top of mind for Schumer, and Republicans are threatening to make Democrats from Trump-backed states feel the heat if they block Pompeo ahead of critical negotiations with North Korea.” - Elana Schor and Burgess Everett, Politico, April 17, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 236
- Open seats: 54
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Wild targets Morganelli for conservative views and Trump tweets in PA-07
Despite an alleged agreement between the candidates to run a positive race, Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District candidate and former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild (D) criticized her opponent, Northampton County district attorney John Morganelli (D), as “anti-choice,” “anti-immigration” and “pro-Trump” in a recent direct mail piece.
Morganelli, who is anti-abortion, said Wild’s mailer failed to mention his abortion stance includes exceptions when the mother’s health is at risk or there are extreme fetal deformities. He also said he supports the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, but opposes sanctuary jurisdictions.
Morganelli said a 2016 tweet he sent to President Trump that he hoped to serve did not mean that he wanted a position in his administration. He said he was instead open to serving as a U.S. attorney.
Two Democratic frontrunners emerge in CA-25 top-two primary
With endorsements and campaign dollars flowing their way, attorney Bryan Caforio (D) and nonprofit executive Katie Hill (D) have emerged as Democratic frontrunners in California’s 25th Congressional District.
The progressive groups Democracy for America and Justice Democrats are backing Caforio, who is hoping for a rematch against incumbent Rep. Stephen Knight (R-Calif.). Knight defeated Cafario in the 2016 general election by six percentage points.
EMILY's List and NARAL have endorsed Hill, who has raised $1.1 million to Caforio’s $990,000.
The California Democratic Party did not make an endorsement in the primary at its February state convention as no candidate reached the 60 percent threshold needed to win official party backing.
Hoyer encourages Tillemann to drop out of CO-06 race
An audio recording obtained and published by The Intercept revealed House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) encouraging Levi Tillemann to drop out of the race for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District in order to clear the way for Jason Crow (D).
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) defended Hoyer, saying “If the realities of life is that some candidates can do better in the general than others, then that’s a clear-eyed conversation that we should be having.”
Tillemann met with Hoyer to ask that the party remain neutral in the race. Tillemann also told Hoyer that he was better positioned to win the general election than the more centrist Crow.
Hoyer said Crow was already Democratic leadership’s chosen candidate.
“I am for Crow because a judgment was made very early on. I didn’t know Crow. I didn’t participate in the decision. But a decision was made early on by the Colorado delegation,” Hoyer said. “You keep saying I would like you to get out of the race, and of course that’s correct.”
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Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Former Secretary of State Brown challenges Gov. Raimondo
Former Rhode Island Secretary of State Matt Brown (D), who had been considering an independent gubernatorial bid, decided Tuesday to challenge Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) in the Democratic primary. In an interview with WPRI, Brown said that his change of heart was motivated by conversations with voters which revealed “a lot of energy, growing energy, drive for exactly the kinds of...ideas I've put forward to change things in the state within the Democratic Party.”
Two other Democratic candidates have announced challenges to the first-term governor. The candidate filing deadline is June 27.
The Sept. 12 primary is open to Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Rhode Island Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 9/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 6/14
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 2/2
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 5/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 33/38
- Seats held in state House: 64/75
Padden withdraws and Levin sues for ballot access in Colorado Attorney General primary
The Democratic field seeking the Democratic attorney general nomination narrowed Tuesday as prosecutor Amy Padden (D) suspended her campaign and attorney Brad Levin (D) was denied a spot on the ballot.
The secretary of state's office said Tuesday that nearly half of the signatures Levin submitted were invalid, leaving him 1,521 signatures short.
In announcing the suspension of her campaign, Padden said that “as Democrats, we cannot afford a divisive primary” and emphasized the importance of winning the seat in November.
Levin filed suit, challenging the secretary of state’s procedure for validating signatures as well as the requirement that signatures be from registered Democrats. A hearing is scheduled May 2.
Candidates seeking a major-party nomination for statewide office must either submit 1,500 signatures from registered party members in each of the state's seven congressional districts or receive at least 30 percent of the vote at the party’s statewide assembly.
If Levin's lawsuit is successful, he will appear on the June 26 primary ballot alongside state Rep. Joe Salazar (D) and former University of Colorado Law School Dean Phil Weiser (D), who qualified at the Democratic Party's state assembly. The primary is open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Colorado Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 8/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 16/35
- Seats held in state House: 36/65
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 37.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 7.7 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 65.2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 61.4 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016 **Not holding state Senate elections in 2018 ***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Mendoza running for California Senate again after resigning over sexual misconduct
Tony Mendoza is running in a special election for his former California state Senate District 32 seat just months after he resigned over sexual harassment claims.
Mendoza said Senate Democratic leader Kevin de León put the wishes of #MeToo activists over due process and unfairly forced him out.
The day before Mendoza resigned, de León introduced a resolution to expel him from the chamber. The resolution said an independent investigation found it likely Mendoza engaged in sexual harassment and that he was offered the chance to rebut the evidence.
Mendoza and 10 other candidates--eight of them Democrats--will run in a June 5 special primary for District 32. The two top vote earners will advance to an Aug. 7 special election.
Democrats see surge of candidates and internal divisions in Ohio House primaries
Democrats are running in almost all of Ohio’s May 8 House primaries, but in some parts of the state, there is little harmony between party regulars and progressive activists.
The party establishment is battling progressives in at least two Cleveland-area primaries.
In District 10, eight Democrats are running to replace term-limited Bill Patmon (D). The Cuyahoga County Democratic Party Terrence Upchurch. The Cuyahoga County Progressive Caucus endorsed Kyle Earley.
The county party is backing Tom Bullock over progressive-supported Mike Skindell in the District 13 primary to replace Nickie Antonio.
Alongside those contests, progressive activists are also looking to take over the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party central committee.
New York Senate update: Democrats win special elections; Felder remains with GOP
Democrats’ attempt to take back the New York State Senate ended Tuesday when state Sen. Simcha Felder (D) announced he would continue caucusing with Republicans despite special election wins by Shelley Mayer (D) in District 37 and Luis Sepulveda (D) in District 32.
The two victories give Democrats a 32-31 numerical majority in the Senate. But Felder’s continued alliance with the GOP will keep them out of power until at least after the 2018 elections.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Both sitting representatives and candidates for office hear many personal stories from the residents of their district. Is there a story that you’ve heard that you found particularly touching, memorable, or impactful?
"I held a town hall on the opioid crisis in Mitchell, Indiana, a small town in Lawrence Co that has been hit hard by the crisis. One woman was talking about her son who was addicted and couldn't get out from under it. One man was talking about getting out of prison and deciding he was finally going to take control of his life. He started a nonprofit that would partner with local businesses and help people find work in their community. Now he has a few employees, and people everyday are walking through his door looking for opportunity to get their lives on track. It is so inspiring to see people who hit the bottom say enough is enough, pick themselves up, and make their situation better."
Liz Watson, candidate for Indiana's 9th Congressional District
Read all of Liz Watson's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
State Building & Construction Trades Council
After supporting her in 2014 and 2016, the State Building & Construction Trades Council of California is seeking to defeat California Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia (D) in her 2018 re-election bid. The labor organization, which disagreed with Garcia last year about cap-and-trade, has opened an independent expenditure committee (IEC) to oust her.
California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D) said the union’s opposition to Garcia was a “thinly veiled attempt by Big Oil and polluters to intimidate me and my members,” and an “affront to my speakership.”
“We will vigorously defend the members of our caucus from any ill-advised political attack," Rendon said.
Garcia was at the forefront of the #MeToo movement, but took an unpaid leave of absence in February after she was accused of sexual misconduct. Garcia denied the allegations.
Erin Lehane, a spokeswoman for the IEC, said it is supporting Garcia’s alleged victims, not their disagreement with her about cap and trade. Lehane said the groups wants a new Democrat in the seat who "better represents the values of the working families of the building trades."
Garcia faces six challengers in the California’s 58th District primary.
What we’re reading
- “Democrats Learning the Limits of Base-First Politics” (National Journal)
- “Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP” (FiveThirtyEight)
- “Democrats try to win back labor in order to win back the House” (Washington Examiner)
- The Republicans’ Big Senate Mess” (The New York Times)
