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Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Democratic primary)

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2022
2014
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent(s):
Gov. Mark Dayton (Democrat)
Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Minnesota
executive elections
Governor

Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Auditor

Rep. Tim Walz (D) won the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He received 41.6 percent of the vote to defeat four other candidates.

The campaign for the Democratic nomination was seen as a three-way battle between Walz, state Rep. Erin Murphy (D), and state Attorney General Lori Swanson (D).

Murphy earned the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota's endorsement at its annual convention, defeating Walz and state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), who subsequently suspended her campaign. She was backed by the Service Employees International Union-Minnesota and the AFSCME.[1] At the time of the primary, she had served in the state House since 2006 and held various leadership positions within the DFL caucus since 2013.

Walz had represented Minnesota's 1st Congressional District since 2007. The district was considered to be Republican-leaning by election forecasters; the Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district is R+5, meaning that in the past two presidential elections its results were five percentage points more Republican than the national average. Walz's history of representing this swing district and his past opposition to firearms regulations were identified by political observers as factors in his convention defeat.[2][3] He is backed by Education Minnesota, the state's largest labor union.[4]

At the time of the 2018 election, Swanson was serving her third term as attorney general, having been first elected in 2006. Swanson withdrew from the nominating process for attorney general at the 2018 convention after she did not secure a majority in the first round of voting. She instead launched a campaign for governor the day before the filing deadline with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) as her running mate.[5][6]

The three clashed on firearms regulations; Murphy called for treatment of violence committed with firearms as a public health issue, universal background checks, and a ban on what she described as assault weapons while criticizing Walz and Swanson for their "A" ratings from the National Rifle Association in previous election cycles. Walz pointed to his current "F" rating from the NRA and proposed universal background checks and the treatment of violence committed with firearms as a public health issue, arguing that as a sportsman and veteran he was uniquely positioned to draw broad-based support for the proposal. Swanson called for an expansion of background checks and pointed to litigation she pursued as attorney general, including a challenge to the legality of blueprints for 3D printing firearms.[7][8]


For more information about gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor was Mark Dayton (D), who was first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. Dayton did not seek election to a third term.
  • In 2018, Minnesota was under divided government. It had held this status since 2015, when Republicans gained a majority in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Minnesota was a Democratic triplex.
  • Minnesota was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016. The widest margin of victory was Barack Obama's ten percent margin in 2008 while the narrowest was Hillary Clinton's less than two percent margin in 2016.
  • Minnesota was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.


    Candidates and election results

    See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

    Tim Walz defeated Erin Murphy, Lori Swanson, Tim Holden, and Ole Savior in the Democratic primary for Governor of Minnesota on August 14, 2018.

    Democratic primary election

    Democratic primary for Governor of Minnesota

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Tim Walz
    Tim Walz
     
    41.6
     
    242,832
    Image of Erin Murphy
    Erin Murphy
     
    32.0
     
    186,969
    Image of Lori Swanson
    Lori Swanson
     
    24.6
     
    143,517
    Image of Tim Holden
    Tim Holden
     
    1.1
     
    6,398
    Image of Ole Savior
    Ole Savior
     
    0.7
     
    4,019

    Total votes: 583,735
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

    Lieutenant governor

    Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


    Did not make the ballot:


    Noteworthy events

    Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party convention

    The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota held its annual convention on June 2, 2018. At the convention, delegates voted on gubernatorial candidates to receive the party's endorsement. Although the party's endorsement is not binding, two of the then-declared candidates—state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D) and state Rep. Erin Murphy (D)—announced prior to the convention that they would suspend their campaigns if they did not receive the party's endorsement. A third candidate, Rep. Tim Walz (D), declared that he would contest the primary regardless of the results of the convention.[9]

    At the June 1 convention, Murphy received the party's endorsement after seven rounds of voting, leading to Otto's withdrawal.[10] On June 4, 2018, Attorney General Lori Swanson (D), who had been named as a potential candidate before ruling a run out in January, announced that she would join the race as a third candidate.[11][12]

    Endorsements

    Democratic candidate endorsements
    Endorsement Date Murphy Swanson Walz
    State figures
    Former Minnesota Secretary of State Joan Growe (D)[13] August 12, 2018
    Gov. Mark Dayton (D)[14] June 4, 2018
    Organizations
    EMILY's List[15] June 7, 2018
    Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota[16] June 2, 2018
    Education Minnesota[17] June 1, 2018
    Faith in Minnesota[18] May 31, 2018
    AFSCME[18] May 31, 2018
    Service Employees International Union—Minnesota[18] May 31, 2018

    Polls

    See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
    Minnesota Governor 2018, Democratic primary
    Poll Poll sponsor Tim Walz Lori SwansonErin MurphyUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
    Marist College
    (July 15-19, 2018)
    NBC News 24%28%11%38%+/-5.6439
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Minnesota Governor 2018, Democratic primary (no margin of error information)
    Poll Poll sponsor Tim Walz Lori SwansonErin MurphyTim HoldenOle SaviorUndecided/OtherSample Size
    Greenburg Quinlan Rosner
    (June 25-27, 2018)
    Minnesota Victory PAC 29%37%17%0%0%16%602
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Past elections

    2014

    See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014

    Mark Dayton ran for re-election as governor of Minnesota in the 2014 election. Dayton and his running mate, Tina Smith, defeated the tickets of Leslie Davis and Gregory K. Soderberg and Bill Dahn and James Vigliotti by an 88.5 percent margin in the 2014 Democratic primary.[19]

    Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota, Democratic Primary, 2014
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngMark Dayton/Tina Smith 93% 177,849
    Leslie Davis/Gregory K. Soderberg 4.5% 8,530
    Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti 2.6% 4,880
    Total Votes 191,259
    Election results via Minnesota Secretary of State.

    Campaign finance

    Campaign tactics and strategies

    Campaign advertisements

    Democratic Party Erin Murphy

    "Moving Minnesota Forward" - Murphy campaign ad, released July 27, 2018

    Democratic Party Lori Swanson

    Support
    "Progressive Leaders" - Swanson campaign ad, released June 12, 2018


    Race ratings

    See also: Race rating definitions and methods
    Race ratings: Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2018
    Race tracker Race ratings
    November 5, 2018 October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political Report Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
    County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
    Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
    Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
    Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
    Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
    Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
    Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
    Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
    Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
    Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
    Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
    Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
    Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
    Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
    Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
    Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
    Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
    Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
    Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
    Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

    In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[20]

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[21][22]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Minnesota governor Democratic primary 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    See also

    Minnesota government:

    Elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. StarTribune, "Faith group backs Rep. Erin Murphy as Tim Walz also scrambles for delegates," May 31, 2018
    2. St. Peter Herald, "Gubernatorial endorsements reveal growing rift on both sides," June 6, 2018
    3. Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Erin Murphy gets DFL backing for governor, as Tim Walz plans primary run," June 2, 2018
    4. KSTP, "Education Minnesota Endorses Tim Walz for Governor," June 1, 2018
    5. CBS Minnesota, "AG Lori Swanson Pulls Out Of Fight For DFL Endorsement," June 2, 2018
    6. Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Attorney General Lori Swanson, Rep. Rick Nolan join up governor run, a day before filing deadline," June 4, 2018
    7. Minnesota Public Radio, "Murphy, Walz tout failing grades from the NRA," August 2, 2018
    8. Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Here’s where DFL governor candidates stand on guns, legalizing pot, health care and taxes," August 5, 2018
    9. CBS Minnesota, "Can Congressman Tim Walz Win The DFL Endorsement For Governor?," April 29, 2018
    10. StarTribune, "Johnson, Murphy score party endorsements for governor, but primaries loom against Pawlenty, Walz," June 4, 2018
    11. FOX 21, "Swanson Announces bid for Minnesota Governor," June 4, 2018
    12. Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Lori Swanson: not running for governor, will seek re-election as attorney general," January 28, 2018
    13. Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Joan Growe: Why I support Erin Murphy for governor," August 12, 2018
    14. CBS Minnesota, "Dayton Endorses Erin Murphy In Race For Governor," June 4, 2018
    15. EMILY's List, "EMILY’S LIST ENDORSES ERIN MURPHY FOR GOVERNOR AND ERIN MAYE QUADE FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF MN," June 7, 2018
    16. Minn Post, "DFL endorses Erin Murphy for governor," June 2, 2018
    17. KSTP, "Education Minnesota Endorses Tim Walz for Governor," June 1, 2018
    18. 18.0 18.1 18.2 Star Tribune, "Faith group backs Rep. Erin Murphy as Tim Walz also scrambles for delegates," May 31, 2018
    19. Minnesota Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Unofficial Results," August 26, 2014
    20. 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
    21. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    22. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017