Heart of the Primaries 2020, Republicans-Issue 1 (January 15, 2020)

Sponsored by the American Association of Political Consultants This week: Bob Dole endorses Roger Marshall for U.S. Senate, Greg Hughes joins Utah’s gubernatorial race, and the Ohio GOP declines to endorse Householder-backed candidates Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email me at cory@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!       REPUBLICAN PUNDITS ON THE NEWS Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views. "In a politically-successful presidency, the re-elect is the period of maximum leverage for ambitious politicians who are close to the president. Because very few presidents have good second terms, the re-election is when people close to a popular president will use his power to slingshot themselves forward to create their own electoral bases of support. That’s not happening right now. Instead, we have the opposite. Ambitious pols close to Trump are passing on races that should be winnable and rank-and-file Republicans are retiring. ... In a successful presidential re-election campaign, people run toward the fight because they sense opportunity. In unsuccessful re-election efforts, people look to insulate themselves so that they can preserve viability for a later date. And it’s pretty clear which is which." Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark, Jan. 9, 2020 “Great recruiting, the development of WinRed as a system for engaging grassroots Republicans in races across the country, the intensity of President Trump's support and the self-destruction of the Democrats are combining to create a dynamic, aggressive new House Republican Party. If retirements are the story of the past, then recruitment is the story of the future. This is the story on which Leader McCarthy and his team are focused. I suspect it's the story that will make him Speaker McCarthy in January 2021.” Newt Gingrich, Newsweek, Jan. 13, 2020 Dole endorses Marshall in KS Senate primary Former Senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole endorsed Rep. Roger Marshall in Kansas’ Aug. 4 GOP Senate primary Monday.  Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R), first elected in 1996, is not seeking re-election. Eight candidates are currently running in the Republican primary. The filing deadline is June 1. Marshall has represented Kansas' 1st Congressional District since 2017. He met with President Donald Trump Monday to discuss the Senate race. The president said in December that he would "sit down and talk” with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo if he thought the Republican Party was going to lose the Senate seat. Pompeo told reporters several times in recent weeks he did not intend to run. Following Pompeo’s statements, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections changed their race ratings from Likely Republican and Solid Republican, respectively, to Lean Republican. An October poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) showed former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach leading the primary field and Marshall in second, 43 percent to 24 percent, without Pompeo in the mix. Kobach ran for governor of Kansas in 2018 and lost to Democrat Laura Kelly by 5 percentage points.  A June poll for the NRSC found Kobach 10 percentage points behind a Democratic candidate who has since withdrawn. Kobach's campaign said, "It's laughable that anyone is taking seriously a poll on a hypothetical match-up conducted 18 months before the election" and said the sample was not representative. This is one of four open Senate seats up for election in 2020. Republicans hold three and Democrats hold the other. Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Local party leaders back Van Drew in NJ-02 Galloway Township Republican leaders switched endorsements in the Republican primary for New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District from businessman David Richter to incumbent Jeff Van Drew Monday.  Van Drew switched affiliations from Democratic to Republican in December following his vote against impeaching the president.  Cape May County Republican Party Chairman Marcus Karavan also endorsed Van Drew Monday. State Sen. and Cumberland County GOP Chair Michael Testa backed Van Drew Jan. 9. Atlantic County Republican Chairman Keith Davis sent an email Sunday asking those who had endorsed Richter to rescind their endorsements following Richter's comments to The New York Times on the president’s endorsement of Van Drew. Richter said, "Donald Trump did what was in the best interest of Donald Trump." Richter said the Times took his comments out of context. Daily Kos wrote that local party endorsements are powerful in New Jersey primaries, where "a candidate endorsed by the local party appears in a separate column on the ballot along with other party endorsees, a designation known colloquially as the 'organization line.'" Richter has said he will remain in the primary. Brian Fitzherbert and Bob Patterson are also running. The filing deadline is March 30. The primary is June 2. LA GOP endorses Garcia over Knight in CA-25 special The Los Angeles Republican Party endorsed Mike Garcia in California's 25th Congressional District special primary election. Garcia is one of six Republicans in the 16-candidate top-two primary on March 3. Garcia is a former naval officer and works for Raytheon Company, a defense contractor. The county party met with Garcia and candidate Stephen Knight, who represented the district from 2015 to 2019, in its Jan. 11 meeting. Knight lost the 2018 election to Katie Hill (D) by 8.8 percentage points. Hill resigned in November 2019 following her acknowledgment of having had a relationship with a campaign staffer. Two-thirds of county party members voted to endorse Garcia. A statement on the endorsement read, "Mike is a fighter and a natural leader who is committed to serving his community and will represent us well in Washington, D.C." The statement also said, "Of all the races in Southern California, this may be the most winnable seat and one we absolutely want to turn RED again." The special election primary coincides with the regularly scheduled primary, which features 13 candidates including Knight and Garcia. The California Democratic Party endorsed state Assemblywoman Christy Smith, one of eight Democratic candidates in the primary. The 2018 top-two primary included one Republican candidate (Knight) and four Democrats. Knight and Hill advanced to the general with 51.8 percent and 20.7 percent of the vote, respectively. ADVERTISEMENT Inquire at ads@ballotpedia.org to advertise here in next week’s edition. Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes launches gubernatorial campaign Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes entered the race for Utah’s open governorship Jan. 8. Hughes is the seventh Republican to launch a bid, joining a primary field that includes Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr., and former state GOP Chairman Thomas Wright. Another potential candidate put an end to speculation that he might run this week. U.S. Rep. Rob Bishop (R), who is not running for re-election this year, announced Monday that he would not run for governor either and endorsed Wright. Six of the candidates—all except businessman Jason Christensen—met in St. George for the first candidate forum of the campaign Thursday. There, the six discussed doing business in Utah and the state’s response to growth. All except Huntsman and Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder Newton met for a second forum Saturday hosted by the Utah Eagle Forum. Businessman Jeff Burningham leads the candidate field in fundraising, according to campaign finance reports filed Friday. Burningham raised $1.5 million in 2019, including $830,000 he loaned his campaign. Cox raised $1.2 million, followed by Huntsman with $520,000. Incumbent Gary Herbert (R), who took office in 2009 after Huntsman resigned to serve as ambassador to China, is not running for re-election. The June 30 primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters. The winner of the primary is likely to win the general election. Utah Republicans have won every gubernatorial election since 1984, marking the longest GOP gubernatorial winning streak in the country.  Montana Republicans to hold first gubernatorial debate with all three candidates The Republican Party of Montana’s upcoming gubernatorial debate will be the first with all three declared candidates participating.  State Attorney General Tim Fox, Rep. Greg Gianforte, and state Sen. Al Olszewski have each confirmed that they will participate in the Jan. 23 debate in Billings. Fox and Olszewski debated one another last November, but Gianforte was unable to attend due to a scheduling conflict.  Campaign finance reports filed Jan. 6 showed Gianforte leading in fundraising for the final quarter of 2019 with $345,000 raised. He was followed by Fox with $105,000 and Olszewski with $50,000. Candidates have until March 9 to file for Montana’s gubernatorial election. The June 2 primary is open to all voters. No Republican candidate has been elected governor in Montana since Judy Martz (R) in 2000. Ohio GOP declines endorsements of several candidates backed by Speaker Larry Householder Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder (R) sent a list of seven candidates running in contested primaries for open seats to the Ohio Republican Party to endorse. The party declined to endorse three of those candidates (Jean Schmidt in HD65, Allen Freeman in HD66, and Brian Lampton in HD73), and in the case of Schmidt, endorsed a different Republican candidate instead. Schmidt, a former member of Congress, is a close political ally of Householder. Householder won the speakership in January 2019, defeating incumbent Speaker Ryan Smith (R). Householder was elected with 52 total votes, 26 from Republicans and 26 from Democrats. Smith came in second with 45 votes, 34 from Republicans and 11 from Democrats. The Republican primaries held in May 2018 were a proxy battle between Householder and Smith, with Householder-backed candidates winning 15 of the 20 contested primaries and Smith-backed candidates winning 3 (candidates backed by neither won the other two). The Cleveland Plain Dealer said that state party endorsements provide several benefits to candidates, including: the candidates can promote the endorsement among party primary voters, gain access to the state’s Republican voter data, and get discounted rates on advertising mailers through the state party’s nonprofit postal account. Former U.S. Rep. Diane Black (R) endorses challenger in Tenn. House race Former U.S. Rep. Diane Black (R) endorsed Sumner County Commissioner Luke Tinsley (R), who is challenging state Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver (R-40) in the Republican primary on Aug. 6. Black, who lives in the district and previously employed Tinsley, said in a statement, “I am so proud to be a part of this campaign because I believe in the candidate we have.” Weaver did not comment on the endorsement but said she was planning on running for re-election. Weaver was first elected to the House in 2008, and has faced a primary challenger only once before. In 2018, she defeated fellow Republican Chad Williams 73-28 in the primary before winning re-election unopposed in the general election. District 40 is located in the north central part of the state and includes portions of DeKalb, Smith, Sumner, and Trousdale counties. 2018 rematch set in Florida House primary Matt Nye (R), a Tea Party activist and chair of the Republican Liberty Caucus, announced that he would once again challenge incumbent state Rep. Thad Altman (R-52). The two also faced off in the 2018 Republican primary, with Altman winning 56-44. The August primary contest will be Altman’s fourth consecutive contested primary. He won a four-way primary en route to winning election to the House in 2016, and he faced a challenger for his final term in the Senate in 2014. In a statement announcing his campaign, Nye accused Altman of working to expand government while abusing his position for personal gain. Responding to the accusations, Altman said, “I like like campaigning, and it keeps you connected with your constituents. I feel good about my record, and I stand by it." District 52 is located on the Space Coast and includes a portion of Brevard County. A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party. “We provide invaluable support and assistance to current and prospective Republican U.S. Senate candidates in the areas of budget planning, election law compliance, fundraising, communications tools and messaging, and research and strategy.” - NRSC website The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is a national political committee and subsidiary of the Republican Party which supports campaigns of Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate. According to the NRSC, it “has a policy of not endorsing candidates in open primaries and only endorses incumbents in primaries.”  The NRSC runs ads targeting Democratic candidates. According to Politico, as of August 2019, the NRSC was “putting up billboards in several Senate races to mess in Democratic primaries, aiming to drive attention to lower-tier candidates. They have funded billboards in Colorado, Georgia, Maine, and North Carolina calling Democratic candidates ‘too liberal’ … The NRSC strategy appears to be to lift up lower-tier candidates they’d rather face in general elections, or to force Democratic primaries to the left.”   Townhall reported on Jan. 14, 2020, that the NRSC had launched “Which Dem Are You?” Instagram filters “in order to give voters in Iowa a chance to truly know where Democratic senatorial candidates stand on the issues since all three candidates have refused to agree to debates.” As of December 2019, the NRSC had around $18 million in cash on hand, compared to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $17 million.