New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent | 48.1% | 116,769 | |
Republican | ![]() |
51.7% | 125,508 | |
N/A | Scatter | 0.2% | 459 | |
Total Votes | 242,736 | |||
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State |
2016 →
← 2012
|
November 4, 2014 |
September 9, 2014 |
Frank Guinta ![]() |
Carol Shea-Porter ![]() |
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1] FairVote's Monopoly Politics: Toss Up[2] |
The 1st Congressional District of New Hampshire held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Former Rep. Frank Guinta (R) defeated incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in the general election.
In the third rematch between Guinta and Shea-Porter, Guinta narrowly defeated his opponent, winning back the seat by 3.5 percent of the vote. The two rivals had been battling for the seat since the 2010 election, when Shea-Porter, who had held the seat since 2007, lost her re-election bid to Guinta. In 2012, Shea-Porter defeated Guinta and regained her seat by a 3.8 percent margin of victory, only to lose the seat again in 2014. Once again, the swing district witnessed a defeated incumbent and a shift in partisan control.
Interestingly, both of Guinta's victories occurred during midterm elections, in which voter turnout tends to be lower. Shea-Porter won the district in both 2008 and 2012, when President Barack Obama (D) was up for election. Obama won the district in both years.
Due to the district's frequent changing of hands, Ballotpedia named New Hampshire's 1st as a U.S. House battleground district in 2014. Political analysts such as those from The Cook Political Report, FairVote's Monopoly Politics and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race as a toss-up.[4][5][6] General election polls did not reveal a clear winner.
Shea-Porter's campaign held the advantage for campaign contributions throughout the election. During the 2014 election cycle, Shea-Porter raised a total of $1,491,760.97, while Guinta raised only $1,007,750.91.[7]
This small advantage, though, was dwarfed by the amount of satellite spending that poured in to help each of the candidates. In all, outside groups spent $10,221,895 on the election, putting New Hampshire's 1st District at fifth on the list of highest satellite spending for a U.S. House race in 2014.[8] The highest donors were the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) at $3,916,738 and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) at $2,349,642.[9]
In such a close race, Guinta's edge may have been strengthened by a national trend in favor of Republicans during the 2014 elections. Republicans across the nation experienced what some called a "GOP wave," increasing their majority in the U.S. House and gaining the majority in the Senate.[10] Many believed that this trend arose due to midterm dissatisfaction and overall low approval ratings of President Barack Obama (D).[11]
Guinta attributed his win to a strong grassroots campaign, touring the district to appear at various events and meeting as many constituents as possible. He explained, "Think about the importance of going into a community and meeting with people over and over and over again."[12]
Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
---|---|---|
Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[13][14][15]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters could register by either August 30, 2014, if registering with a town clerk, or on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 25, 2014 (10 days before election).[16]
- See also: New Hampshire elections, 2014
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Carol Shea-Porter (D), who was first elected in 2006. She lost her re-election bid in 2010 to Frank Guinta (R), but won the seat back in 2012.
New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state. It includes all of Carroll and Strafford counties and parts of Belknap, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack, and Rockingham counties.[17]
Candidates
General election candidates
Carol Shea-Porter - Incumbent
Frank Guinta
September 9, 2014, primary results
|
|
Failed to file
Election results
General election
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent | 48.1% | 116,769 | |
Republican | ![]() |
51.7% | 125,508 | |
N/A | Scatter | 0.2% | 459 | |
Total Votes | 242,736 | |||
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State |
Primary election
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
49.1% | 29,246 | ||
Dan Innis | 40.9% | 24,342 | ||
Brendan Kelly | 8.4% | 4,999 | ||
Everett Jabour | 1.7% | 996 | ||
Total Votes | 59,583 | |||
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State - Official Election Results |
Race background
Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) was a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program was designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents during the 2014 election cycle.[22]
Primary election background
Throughout the primary election campaign, Guinta had an advantage over Republican primary challenger Dan Innis in polls and fundraising. Guinta also had the advantage of name recognition, as he was the district's representative from 2011 to 2013. Nonetheless, Innis proved to be a competitive opponent. He earned a high-profile endorsement from the LGBTQ Victory Fund and gained media attention for being one of three openly gay Republicans who ran for Congress in 2014.[23] Guinta defeated Innis and two other Republican candidates in the Republican primary on September 9, 2014.[24]
Endorsements
Carol Shea-Porter
Carol Shea-Porter received the following endorsements:
- Students for a New American Politics (SNAP) PAC[25]
- EMILY's List[26]
Frank Guinta
Frank Guinta received the following endorsements:
- New Hampshire Union Leader for Congress in New Hampshire's 1st District[27]
- The Eagle Tribune[28]
- Rep. Paul Ryan[29]
- Sen. Kelly Ayotte[29]
- Former Sen. Scott Brown[30]
- Over 300 activists, elected officials, party chairs, town and community officials, listed in the following press releases:
Dan Innis
Dan Innis received the following endorsements:
- Former New Hampshire state representative Doug Scamman[43]
- Former New Hampshire state representative Stella Scamman[43]
- The LGBTQ Victory Fund[44][45]
- Former New Hampshire state representative Jim Waddell[46]
- New Hampshire state senator John Reagan[47]
- Former Executive Councilor for the Third District of New Hampshire Ruth Griffin[48]
- Twenty-one "Granite Staters" listed here[49]
Issues
Campaign themes
Carol Shea-Porter
Carol Shea-Porter listed the following issues on her campaign website:[50]
“ |
|
” |
—Carol Shea-Porter, Campaign website (archive) |
Frank Guinta
Frank Guinta listed the following issues, among others, on his campaign website:[52]
“ |
|
” |
—Frank Guinta, Campaign website (archive) |
Polls
General election polls
Frank Guinta vs. Carol Shea-Porter | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll | Frank Guinta | Carol Shea-Porter | Other | Don’t know/undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (October 22-26, 2014) | 40% | 44% | 1% | 15% | +/-6.1 | 261 | |||||||||||||
New England College (October 24, 2014) | 49% | 42.9% | 4.1% | 4% | +/-4.16 | 556 | |||||||||||||
New England College (October 16, 2014) | 47% | 46% | 0% | 0% | +/-4.6 | 461 | |||||||||||||
New England College (October 9, 2014) | 46.3% | 43.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | +/-4.23 | 536 | |||||||||||||
New England College (October 3, 2014) | 44.2% | 46.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | +/-3.92 | 626 | |||||||||||||
New England College (September 19-20, 2014) | 45.2% | 45.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | +/-3.66 | 715 | |||||||||||||
Normington, Petts and Associates (September 3-7, 2014) | 43% | 45% | 0% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 800 | |||||||||||||
New England College (September 10-11, 2014) | 41.6% | 46.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | +/-3.98 | 630 | |||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (June 19-July 1, 2014) | 46% | 43% | 2% | 10% | +/-6.0 | 263 | |||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (April 1-9, 2014) | 35% | 44% | 0% | 21% | +/-6.1 | 199 | |||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Note: A response of "0%" may indicate that a given answer choice did not appear as an option for that poll.
Dan Innis vs. Carol Shea-Porter | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll | Dan Innis | Carol Shea-Porter | Other | Don’t know/undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (June 19-July 1, 2014) | 38% | 45% | 1% | 16% | +/-6.0 | 263 | |||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (April 1-9, 2014) | 29% | 45% | 0% | 25% | +/-6.1 | 199 | |||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Campaign contributions
Carol Shea-Porter
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Shea-Porter's reports.[53]
Carol Shea-Porter (2014) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
April Quarterly[54] | April 15, 2013 | $24,944.53 | $86,057.21 | $(40,138.20) | $70,863.54 | ||||
July Quarterly (amended)[55] | October 14, 2013 | $70,863.54 | $103,973.46 | $(33,868.15) | $140,968.85 | ||||
October Quarterly[56] | October 14, 2013 | $140,968.85 | $183,491.97 | $(43,459.87) | $281,000.95 | ||||
Year-End Quarterly[57] | January 31, 2013 | $281,000.95 | $161,052.48 | $(84,664.28) | $357,389.15 | ||||
April Quarterly[58] | April 15, 2014 | $357,389.15 | $201,335.60 | $(44,826.80) | $513,897.95 | ||||
July Quarterly[59] | July 15, 2014 | $513,897.95 | $219,031.33 | $(120,900.94) | $612,028.34 | ||||
Pre-Primary[60] | August 28, 2014 | $612,028.34 | $118,983.90 | $(77,113.89) | $653,898.35 | ||||
October Quarterly[61] | October 15, 2014 | $653,898.35 | $279,936.08 | $(798,094.20) | $135,740.23 | ||||
Pre-General[62] | October 23, 2014 | $135,740.23 | $137,898.94 | $(152,767.30) | $152,767.30 | ||||
Running totals | |||||||||
$1,491,760.97 | $(1,395,833.63) |
Frank Guinta
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Guinta's reports.[63]
Frank Guinta (2014) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
April Quarterly[64] | April 15, 2013 | $34,444.63 | $460.25 | $(34,757.27) | $147.61 | ||||
July Quarterly[65] | July 15, 2013 | $147.61 | $2,442.57 | $(2,177.57) | $412.61 | ||||
October Quarterly[66] | October 15, 2013 | $412.61 | $1,655.00 | $(1,301.16) | $766.45 | ||||
Year-End[67] | January 31, 2014 | $766.45 | $166,945.00 | $(39,568.04) | $128,143.41 | ||||
April Quarterly[68] | April 15, 2014 | $128,143.41 | $154,506.11 | $(62,741.85) | $219,907.67 | ||||
July Quarterly[69] | July 15, 2014 | $219,907 | $131,987 | $(99,771) | $252,123 | ||||
Pre-Primary[70] | October 28, 2014 | $252,123.67 | $34,279.00 | $(98,601.84) | $187,800.83 | ||||
October Quarterly[71] | October 15, 2014 | $187,800.83 | $351,491.21 | $(165,849.84) | $373,442.20 | ||||
Pre-General[72] | October 23, 2014 | $373,442.20 | $163,984.77 | $(155,891.62) | $381,535.35 | ||||
Running totals | |||||||||
$1,007,750.91 | $(660,660.19) |
**As of the 2013 Year-End Report, Guinta's committee owed $289,575.00 in outstanding loans to Frank Guinta.
Dan Innis
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Innis' reports.[73]
Dan Innis (2014) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
Year-End[74] | January 31, 2014 | $0.00 | $106,394.93 | $(75,353.39) | $31,041.54 | ||||
April Quarterly[75] | April 15, 2014 | $31,041.54 | $61,442.00 | $(35,813.73) | $56,669.81 | ||||
Running totals | |||||||||
$167,836.93 | $(111,167.12) |
Media
Carol Shea-Porter
Carol Shea-Porter released her first campaign ad of the election season in September 2014.[76]
|
Dan Innis
|
Frank Guinta
- Frank Guinta released a campaign ad in September 2013, discussing how he would work with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress toward a common goal.[78]
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released an ad attacking Guinta for a near-scandal from 2010.[79] Guinta had loaned $245,000 to his campaign, and in the same financial disclosure forms, he had included an account containing between $250,000 and $500,000 that had not appeared on any previous forms. Guinta referred to the situation as an "inadvertent oversight."[80]
|
|
District history
Candidate ballot access |
---|
Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2012
On November 6, 2012, Carol Shea-Porter (D) won election to the United States House. She defeated Frank Guinta (R) and Brendan Kelly (L) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Frank Guinta Incumbent | 46% | 158,659 | |
Democratic | ![]() |
49.8% | 171,650 | |
Libertarian | Brandan Kelly | 4.2% | 14,521 | |
Total Votes | 344,830 | |||
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Frank Guinta won election to the United States House. He defeated Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Philip Hodson (L) in the general election.[81]
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire, 2014
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2014
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for August 8, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
- ↑ FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed August 25, 2014
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed August 25, 2014
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for JULY 26, 2014," accessed July 31, 2014
- ↑ FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed November 19, 2014
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 31, 2014
- ↑ OpenSecrets, "New Hampshire District 01 Race, Summary Data," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ OpenSecrets, "2014 Outside Spending, by Race," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ OpenSecrets, "New Hampshire District 01 Race, Outside Spending," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Yes, this was a GOP wave election," accessed November 20, 2014
- ↑ New York Daily News, "Republicans ride wave of anger against Obama to recapture Senate," accessed November 20, 2014
- ↑ Fosters, "Guinta only top GOP victor in N.H.," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed April 25, 2023
- ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
- ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State,"Voting in Party Primaries," accessed April 25, 2023
- ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2014 Filing Period," accessed June 23, 2014
- ↑ Portsmouth Patch, "Frank Guinta Announces Congressional Run on YouTube," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Seacoast Online, "UNH dean may make bid for Congress," accessed July 25, 2013
- ↑ WMUR.com, "State Rep. Pam Tucker is considering a run for Congress against Shea-Porter," accessed September 6, 2013
- ↑ Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Announces 2013-2014 Frontline Members," accessed March 5, 2013
- ↑ Newsmax, "Gay Republicans Competing in Three Congressional Races," accessed May 28, 2014
- ↑ Associated Press, "New Hampshire - 2014 Primary Results," accessed September 9, 2014
- ↑ SNAP PAC, "SNAP PAC Endorses Representative Carol Shea-Porter and Lee Rogers," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ EMILY's List, "Carol Shea-Porter," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "New Hampshire Union Leader Endorses Frank Guinta for Congress," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Eagle Tribune endorses Guinta for Congress in NH-01," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ 29.0 29.1 WMUR, "Paul Ryan to visit N.H. for Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ The Hill, "Scott Brown headlining fundraiser for Guinta in New Hampshire," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Guinta Begins March of Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Guinta Continues March of Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Flocking to Guinta's Candidacy," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Continue to Coalesce Around Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Grassroot Support Continues to Grow for Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Team Guinta Marches into April," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Team Guinta Locks Down More Grassroots Support," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Continue to Unite Behind Team Guinta!" accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "April Ends Where March Began," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "10 Straight Weeks and Counting!" accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "11th Straight Week of Endorsements for Team Guinta!" accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Milestone Reached for Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ 43.0 43.1 Portsmouth Patch, "Doug and Stella Scamman Endorse Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ The LGBTQ Victory Fund, "Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014 (dead link)
- ↑ The Washington Post, "LGBT group to back two gay Republicans for Congress," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Portsmouth Patch, "Jim Waddell Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Portsmouth Patch, "Senator John Reagan Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Portsmouth Patch, "Ruth Griffin Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Portsmouth Patch, "Dan Innis Releases List of 21 Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
- ↑ Carol Shea-Porter for US Congress, "Issues," accessed October 2, 2014
- ↑ 51.0 51.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Frank Guinta for Congress, "Issues," accessed March 27, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Shea-Porter 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 22, 2013
- ↑ FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
- ↑ FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
- ↑ FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 25, 2013
- ↑ FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
- ↑ FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
- ↑ FEC, "Pre-Primary," accessed October 23, 2014
- ↑ FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
- ↑ FEC, "Pre-General," accessed November 25, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta October Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Year-End," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Pre-Primary," accessed November 4, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta October Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Pre-General," accessed November 4, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis Year-End," accessed March 20, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
- ↑ YouTube, "Dream," accessed September 12, 2014
- ↑ YouTube, "Dan Innis Announcement," accessed May 28, 2014
- ↑ YouTube, "By Working Together We Can Solve Our Problems," accessed October 6, 2014
- ↑ YouTube, "Bank," accessed October 6, 2014
- ↑ Politico, "Bradley: Guinta should drop out," accessed October 6, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013