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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for June 25, 2018
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
June 25, 2018: There has been much talk of a “Big Blue Wave” in the midterm elections but little discussion of what a wave election actually is. A Ballotpedia analysis reviewed 50 election cycles from 1918 to 2016 and determined that the party out of power must pick up at least 48 House seats to truly qualify as a wave election.
This report defines a wave election as one in which the winning party nets more seats than 80% of all election cycles in the past 100 years.
It must be noted, of course, that the Democrats could win control of Congress this fall without a wave election. Currently, the Democrats need to win 23 seats to gain control, less than half the total needed to qualify as a wave.
Ballotpedia also calculated that Democrats would need to gain "seven U.S. Senate seats, seven gubernatorial seats, and 494 state legislative seats for each group of elections to qualify historically as a wave against the president's party in November 2018.”
| What Democrats need in 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Election group | Seats needed for chamber/majority control | Seats needed for a wave election |
| U.S. House | D+23[1] | D+48 |
| U.S. Senate | D+2 | D+7 |
| Gubernatorial | D+10 | D+7 |
| State legislative | D+525 | D+494 |
As shown above, even a wave election in November would not be enough to give Democrats a majority of the nation’s state legislative seats or governorships.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com suggests that it is quite possible for the Democrats to win enough governorships to qualify as a wave election.[2]
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- June 22, 2018 – 1,166 state legislative races already will not include major party opposition
- June 21, 2018 – 80 percent of voters believe fear of being politically incorrect leads to bad business or political decisions
- June 20, 2018 – 51% decline in newspaper circulation since peak in 1984
- June 19, 2018 – 56 years old: age at which average millennial expects to retire
- June 18, 2018 – 51 percent of federal workers support White House attempts to ease firing process
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
The Number of the Day is broadcast on local stations across the country. An archive of these broadcasts can be found here.
Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Ballotpedia is the nonprofit, nonpartisan Encyclopedia of American Politics.
See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Wave elections (1918-2016)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ This number was calculated in April 2018 and assumed that Republicans would have a 240-195 majority at the time of the 2018 elections.
- ↑ ScottRasmussen.com, "2018 Gubernatorial Races," accessed June 22, 2018
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