Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for May 15, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
May 15, 2017: Michigan is home to 12 of the nation’s 206 Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted twice for Barack Obama and then voted for Donald Trump. Both in Michigan and nationwide, these counties had an outsized impact on the election outcome. From now until Election 2018, Ballotpedia will regularly release new data on these counties and explore what they can teach us about national trends.
In 2008, Obama won the Michigan Pivot Counties by 10 percentage points. That margin was cut in half in 2012. Things were dramatically different in 2016, however. Trump won these counties by 11 points.
| Michigan Pivot Counties | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 53% | 47% | 44% |
| Democrat | 42% | 52% | 54% |
| Margin | R+11 | D+5 | D+10 |
Statewide, Obama won Michigan by 16 percentage points in 2008 and by 9 points in 2012. In 2016, Trump won by just two-tenths of a percentage point.
In raw vote totals, the Republicans gained a net 460,017 votes in 2016 (from a 449,313-vote Democratic victory in 2012 to a 10,704-vote GOP victory in 2016). Even though the Pivot Counties accounted for only 18 percent of the total votes cast in Michigan, they provided 30 percent of all the Republican gains.
In addition to tracking Pivot Counties, Ballotpedia tracks solid Republican and solid Democratic counties, defined as those that voted for their party’s candidate in each of the last three elections. These counties all played a role in delivering Michigan’s 16 Electoral College votes to the GOP column.
In the state’s eight solidly Democratic counties, Hillary Clinton won by 22 percentage points, but that was down from Obama’s 28-point margin in 2012 and 34-point margin in 2016 (see tables below). In the state’s 37 solidly Republican counties, Trump won by 31 percentage points. That’s up significantly from a 19-point margin earned by Romney in 2012 and a 9-point advantage for McCain in 2008.
In raw vote terms, the margins are highlighted in the table below.
| Margins | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 99,012 | -39,334 | -92,582 |
| Solid GOP | 273,214 | 161,820 | 80,179 |
| Solid Dem. | -494,675 | -626,159 | -788,634 |
| Other | 133,153 | 54,360 | -22,903 |
| Total | 10,704 | -449,313 | -823,940 |
Even though there are fewer solidly Democratic counties, they tend to be much larger and account for a much larger share of the vote. That’s consistent with the national trends as well.
| Count | Summary | Average votes cast per county |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pivot | 72,985 |
| 37 | Solid GOP | 24,043 |
| 8 | Solid Dem. | 276,217 |
| 26 | Other | 32,659 |
Overall, 29 percent of the net Republican gains came from the solidly Democratic counties. Obama carried them by 626,159 votes in 2012. Hillary Clinton netted only a 494,675-vote margin.
Solidly Republican counties contributed 24 percent of the GOP gains despite casting only 18 percent of the total votes.
| Change | Net vote change from 2012 to 2016 | % of net votes gained by GOP in 2016 | % of total votes cast in 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 138,346 | 30.10% | 18.20% |
| Solid GOP | 111,394 | 24.20% | 18.40% |
| Solid Dem. | 131,484 | 28.60% | 45.80% |
| Other | 78,793 | 17.10% | 17.60% |
| Total | 460,017 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
As seen in the map below, Pivot Counties can be found throughout the state of Michigan. This is significantly different from Iowa, where the Pivot Counties were concentrated heavily in the eastern portion of the state.
| 2016 share | Dem. | GOP | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 41.70% | 53.00% | 5.30% | 100.00% |
| Solid GOP | 31.40% | 62.20% | 6.40% | 100.00% |
| Solid Dem. | 58.50% | 36.10% | 5.30% | 100.00% |
| Other | 38.90% | 54.60% | 6.50% | 100.00% |
| 2012 share | Dem. | GOP | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 51.70% | 47.10% | 1.10% | 100.00% |
| Solid GOP | 39.80% | 59.00% | 1.20% | 100.00% |
| Solid Dem. | 63.70% | 35.30% | 1.00% | 100.00% |
| Other | 46.10% | 52.70% | 1.20% | 100.00% |
| 2008 share | Dem. | GOP | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 54.20% | 44.00% | 1.80% | 100.00% |
| Solid GOP | 44.50% | 53.60% | 1.90% | 100.00% |
| Solid Dem. | 66.10% | 32.50% | 1.40% | 100.00% |
| Other | 50.50% | 47.80% | 1.70% | 100.00% |
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