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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for October 26, 2020
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
October 26, 2020: There are only eight days left for voters to cast their ballot in what will certainly go down in history as one of the most unusual or amazing election years.
Polls throughout the year have shown former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by a generally modest margin.[1] However, after the failure of media analysts to recognize that 2016 polling showed a much closer than expected race, many voters are skeptical in 2020.[2]
The thing that is keeping me up at night as a pollster is the mail-in vote. It is extraordinarily pro-Biden. As a result, if the mail-in totals are even a bit lower than projected, the race might be a lot tighter than it appears.
From my perspective, there are three main areas of concern—for pollsters and the Biden campaign:
- Will younger voters really get their ballots in the mail? As a group, they are not enthusiastic about Biden, but many loathe Trump. Will that be enough? That question is made all the more difficult by the fact that younger voters never use snail mail in their normal daily routine.
- In recent years, 1 to 1.4% of mail-in ballots have been rejected for various reasons. Given that many people will be voting by mail for the first time this year and that many states have no history of mass mail-in voting, the rejection rate could be much higher. That could be very significant in a key swing state like Pennsylvania.
- Finally, voters who are less comfortable with the English language may have a harder time filling out their ballot properly.
Any or all of these factors could result in a smaller number of mail-in ballots being cast than pollsters like me are currently projecting. Since these voters strongly prefer the Democratic nominee, such an outcome would mean Biden’s lead is smaller than anticipated.
On the other hand, it may be nothing more than a data fear to keep pollsters up at night.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- October 23, 2020 –45 million votes have already been cast
- October 22, 2020 -56 percent of voters believe worst of pandemic is still to come
- October 21, 2020 -60 percent of voters prefer populist candidates
- October 20, 2020 –197 Electoral College votes rated as toss-ups
- October 19, 2020 -7 races for U.S. Senate are rated as toss-ups
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
The Number of the Day is broadcast on local stations across the country. An archive of these broadcasts can be found here.
Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Joe Biden
- Donald Trump
- Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020
Footnotes
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