United States House election in South Dakota, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)
- Primary date: June 2
- Primary type: Closed (Republican, Libertarian, and Constitution parties); semi-closed (Democratic)
- Registration deadline(s): May 18
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Early voting starts: April 17
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): June 2 (received)
- Voter ID: Photo ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 31, 2020 |
| Primary: June 2, 2020 Primary runoff: August 11, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Dusty Johnson (R) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in South Dakota |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large South Dakota elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Dakota took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's at-large congressional district. This page focuses on the Democratic primary that took place in South Dakota on June 2, 2020.
Click here for more information about the Republican primary.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Dusty Johnson, who was first elected in 2018.
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. South Dakota law allows parties to choose whether to let unaffiliated voters vote in their elections. For more information on recognized political parties in South Dakota and their primary policies, see here.[1][2]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
South Dakota modified its primary election process as follows:
- Voting procedures: Absentee ballot applications sent to all registered voters in the primary election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
At-large district
The Democratic primary for U.S. House South Dakota was canceled. No candidates qualified for this race.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Five of 66 South Dakota counties—7.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Corson County, South Dakota | 4.51% | 11.08% | 21.48% | ||||
| Day County, South Dakota | 23.77% | 6.16% | 12.89% | ||||
| Marshall County, South Dakota | 15.51% | 8.66% | 16.48% | ||||
| Roberts County, South Dakota | 15.53% | 9.84% | 19.64% | ||||
| Ziebach County, South Dakota | 1.96% | 16.43% | 27.16% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Dakota with 61.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 31.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Dakota cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 63.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Dakota supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 86.7 to 10.0 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won six out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 19.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 12.7 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 22.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 33 out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 51.58% | 46.48% | D+5.1 | 37.24% | 57.24% | R+20 | D |
| 2 | 41.78% | 55.63% | R+13.8 | 28.47% | 65.46% | R+37 | R |
| 3 | 44.43% | 52.39% | R+8 | 33.93% | 59.00% | R+25.1 | R |
| 4 | 40.82% | 56.54% | R+15.7 | 27.54% | 66.02% | R+38.5 | R |
| 5 | 39.90% | 58.16% | R+18.3 | 27.89% | 65.65% | R+37.8 | R |
| 6 | 38.47% | 59.68% | R+21.2 | 30.89% | 61.65% | R+30.8 | R |
| 7 | 50.40% | 46.81% | D+3.6 | 43.62% | 47.39% | R+3.8 | D |
| 8 | 43.39% | 54.25% | R+10.9 | 32.58% | 61.26% | R+28.7 | R |
| 9 | 44.78% | 52.69% | R+7.9 | 35.24% | 57.43% | R+22.2 | R |
| 10 | 42.73% | 55.52% | R+12.8 | 34.89% | 58.46% | R+23.6 | R |
| 11 | 42.02% | 56.19% | R+14.2 | 36.63% | 56.47% | R+19.8 | R |
| 12 | 43.37% | 54.72% | R+11.3 | 40.26% | 52.71% | R+12.4 | R |
| 13 | 42.42% | 55.91% | R+13.5 | 42.90% | 50.51% | R+7.6 | R |
| 14 | 45.37% | 53.02% | R+7.7 | 42.55% | 50.96% | R+8.4 | R |
| 15 | 60.76% | 36.19% | D+24.6 | 50.37% | 40.21% | D+10.2 | D |
| 16 | 37.11% | 61.13% | R+24 | 28.21% | 66.43% | R+38.2 | R |
| 17 | 46.23% | 51.48% | R+5.3 | 38.71% | 54.73% | R+16 | D |
| 18 | 42.37% | 55.09% | R+12.7 | 34.30% | 58.81% | R+24.5 | R |
| 19 | 30.80% | 67.46% | R+36.7 | 21.26% | 73.69% | R+52.4 | R |
| 20 | 39.03% | 58.77% | R+19.7 | 28.66% | 65.65% | R+37 | R |
| 21 | 32.69% | 65.58% | R+32.9 | 21.75% | 74.28% | R+52.5 | D |
| 22 | 40.25% | 57.55% | R+17.3 | 28.05% | 65.80% | R+37.8 | R |
| 23 | 27.77% | 70.13% | R+42.4 | 17.94% | 77.32% | R+59.4 | R |
| 24 | 31.98% | 66.03% | R+34.1 | 26.93% | 66.80% | R+39.9 | R |
| 25 | 39.10% | 58.97% | R+19.9 | 31.43% | 61.88% | R+30.4 | D |
| 26A | 71.98% | 26.91% | D+45.1 | 62.07% | 31.66% | D+30.4 | D |
| 26B | 38.65% | 59.41% | R+20.8 | 27.43% | 66.49% | R+39.1 | R |
| 27 | 59.61% | 39.08% | D+20.5 | 51.30% | 43.71% | D+7.6 | R |
| 28A | 59.49% | 38.69% | D+20.8 | 48.66% | 46.00% | D+2.7 | D |
| 28B | 21.01% | 75.69% | R+54.7 | 13.67% | 79.93% | R+66.3 | R |
| 29 | 26.65% | 70.23% | R+43.6 | 18.53% | 73.59% | R+55.1 | R |
| 30 | 28.42% | 68.70% | R+40.3 | 22.14% | 71.69% | R+49.5 | R |
| 31 | 34.98% | 61.85% | R+26.9 | 28.34% | 62.58% | R+34.2 | R |
| 32 | 37.98% | 59.43% | R+21.5 | 33.81% | 56.85% | R+23 | R |
| 33 | 32.89% | 64.91% | R+32 | 28.15% | 64.55% | R+36.4 | R |
| 34 | 34.28% | 63.64% | R+29.4 | 32.46% | 59.35% | R+26.9 | R |
| 35 | 35.21% | 61.55% | R+26.3 | 26.34% | 64.40% | R+38.1 | R |
| Total | 39.87% | 57.89% | R+18 | 31.74% | 61.53% | R+29.8 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+14, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District the 89th most Republican nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
There are currently no declared candidates in this race. Know of one we missed? Click here to let us know.
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]
| Race ratings: South Dakota's At-large Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- United States House election in South Dakota, 2020 (June 2 Republican primary)
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
- United States House election in South Dakota (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House election in South Dakota (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed September 25, 2024
- ↑ South Dakota Legislature,"Codified Laws § 12-6-26," accessed September 25, 2024
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
