Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
U.S. Senate race in North Dakota: GOP tries for a pick-up
By the numbers, Democrats need to pick up two seats to gain control of the Senate. But Democrats are defending 26 seats this year to nine for the GOP. Ten of those Democratic seats are in states Donald Trump won in 2016.
Among those ten: North Dakota, where Trump won by 36 percentage points over Hillary Clinton and incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) is in a close race with the Republican nominee, Rep. Kevin Cramer.
Cramer has led Heitkamp in recent polls by 10 to 16 percentage points. During October, two independent race raters changed their ratings from Toss-up to Lean Republican.
Heitkamp is running as an independent-minded legislator, saying she has voted for Trump's policies 50 percent of the time but opposes the president when she doesn't think his policies benefit North Dakotans. Cramer emphasizes Trump’s endorsement of his campaign and says he has consistently supported conservative policies in the House.
Self-funding candidates writing big checks to campaigns, but still short of record
From 2000 to 2016, the top congressional self-funder was former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine (R), who spent $60 million of his own money to win a Senate seat in New Jersey in 2000. In today’s dollars, that figure would be more than $83 million.
No 2018 congressional candidate has surpassed that mark, but several have contributed $9 million or more this year:
Top self-funders in the 2014 midterm election:
- David Alameel, U.S. Senate in Texas: $5.7 million
- Thomas McArthur, New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District: $5 million
- Sean Eldridge, New York’s 19th Congressional District: $4.3 million
- Curt Clawson, Florida’s 19th Congressional District: $4 million
- Marc Jacobs, U.S. Senate in Iowa: $4 million
Most expensive general election races this year
Washington’s 8th Congressional District narrowly tops the list of most expensive U.S. House races list this year based on spending for and by general election candidates:
U.S. House
Senate
Trump’s final week of travel focuses on states with key Senate races
In the final week before the midterms, President Donald Trump (R) is making a cross-country trip campaigning for candidates in battleground races:
- Wednesday: Fort Myers, Florida
- Thursday: Columbia, Missouri
- Friday: Huntington, West Virginia
- Friday: Indianapolis, Indiana
- Saturday: Bozeman, Montana
- Saturday: Pensacola, Florida
- Sunday: Macon, Georgia
- Sunday: Chattanooga, Tennessee
- Monday: Cleveland, Ohio
- Monday: Fort Wayne, Indiana
- Monday: Cape Girardeau, Missouri
According to The Cook Political Report analyst Amy Walter, Trump’s schedule suggests he is focusing on Senate races. Walter said the president is “going to the places where he remains popular, more rural or exurban, and he's staying away from big cities that have suburbs where he's toxic.”
In Ohio and Georgia, the president is expected to focus on toss-up gubernatorial races.
O’Rourke top spender on Facebook advertising
More than $296 million has been spent on Facebook advertising from May through Oct. 27. The top 5 spenders have collectively spent more than $16 million on these ads:
The top spenders in Facebook’s most recent report, running Oct. 21 through Oct. 27, are liberal or Democratic individuals and groups:
Healthcare top issue in campaign ads, recent ads feature migrant caravan
An analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project showed healthcare was mentioned in 46 percent of federal campaign ads run between Sept. 18 and Oct. 15. Other top issues included taxes, public safety, Medicare, the budget, corruption, and jobs.
Although immigration was only mentioned in 7.8 percent of ads during that time period, the migrant caravan traveling through southern Mexico has been featured in several spots across the country in the past week.
In the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico, Mick Rich (R) included footage of the migrant caravan to argue his opponents, Martin Heinrich (D) and Gary Johnson (L), were not tough enough on border security and immigration policy.
Heinrich said in a debate Friday that “hungry 5-year-old refugees do not constitute a threat.” Johnson tweeted Thursday, “Sending American troops to repel an imaginary invasion is absurd. It is nothing more than political theater.”
U.S. Senate races in Montana, Tennessee, and Texas, and U.S. House races in Minnesota and South Carolina have also highlighted the caravan in ads.
Caron withdraws from Maine gubernatorial election, endorses Mills
Businessman Alan Caron (I) suspended his gubernatorial campaign Monday and endorsed the Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Janet Mills.
Three candidates are still in the race: Mills, businessman Shawn Moody (R) and state Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I). Aaron Chadbourne (I) is running a write-in campaign. Although Caron's name will remain on the ballot, votes cast for him will be treated as blank.
Independent candidates have tended to perform well in recent Maine gubernatorial elections. The most recent race in which no independent or third-party candidate received more than 5 percent of the vote was in 1982. The last Maine governor elected with more than 50 percent of the vote was Angus King (I) in 1998.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Oregon to toss-up
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball announced Oct. 25 it was changing its rating for Oregon's gubernatorial election to "Toss-up," pointing to state Rep. Knute Buehler's (R) abortion stance as a factor in its decision. The Cook Political Report reclassified the race as a toss-up Oct. 16.
Buehler faces five opponents, including incumbent Kate Brown (D), who took office following John Kitzhaber's (D) resignation in 2015 and was elected to fill the remainder of Kitzhaber's term in a 2016 special election.
The most recent campaign finance reports showed Buehler has raised $14.1 million since January 2017 to Brown's $13.7 million. The pair's combined fundraising of $27.8 million makes 2018's gubernatorial election the most expensive in state history, surpassing the $17.7 million raised in 2010.
No Republican candidate has won an Oregon gubernatorial race since 1982.
Hartford Courant endorses Oz Griebel
The Hartford Courant, Connecticut's largest newspaper by circulation, endorsed businessman Oz Griebel (I) for the state's open gubernatorial seat Sunday.
Griebel faces four opponents, including businessmen Ned Lamont (D) and Bob Stefanowski (R), in the general election. Of the five most recent publicly-released polls, Lamont has received an average of 44 percent support to Stefanowski's 39 percent and Griebel's 9 percent.
Hillary Clinton (D) carried the state by a margin of 14 percentage points in 2016. If Lamont is elected to succeed outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy (D), it would be the first time since 1924 that voters elected a gubernatorial candidate of the same party as the outgoing governor.
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Minnesota House—77-56 Republican majority—and Minnesota Senate—33-33 tie
Democrats can make Minnesota a Democratic trifecta in 2018 if they win the Minnesota House and win a special election for state Senate District 13, which will decide control of the evenly divided Senate. They also need to maintain control of the governor’s office.
Democrats need to have a net gain of 12 seats currently in GOP hands to win the House. Ballotpedia identified 13 Republican-held battleground seats and nine Democratic-held battleground seats.
The House changed from Democratic to Republican control in 2010 and 2014 and from Republican to Democratic control in 2006 and 2012. The majority party lost an average of 16.5 seats across these four elections.
Former Sartell Mayor Joe Perske (D) and state Rep. Joe Howe (R) are running for Senate District 13. The seat became vacant in May when incumbent Michelle Fischbach (R), the Senate president, succeeded Tina Smith (D) as lieutenant governor.
Donald Trump won the 13th District in 2016 by more than 30 percentage points. Democrats had spent more than $125,000 supporting Perske as of mid-September. The full Senate is up for election in 2020.
🔵 Colorado House: 36-29 Democratic majority
Republicans can gain a trifecta in Colorado if they win the state House and the open governor’s race between Jared Polis (D) and Walker Stapleton (R). They control the state Senate 18-16-1.
Republicans need to pick up four Democratic-held seats to win the House. Ballotpedia identified nine battlegrounds -- six Republican-held seats and three Democratic-held seats. All Democratic incumbents are running for re-election, while two Republican incumbents are running for re-election. All nine battleground districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Democratic majority is smaller than it otherwise would have been because state Rep. Steve Lebsock switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in March 2018, shortly before he was expelled from the House over sexual harassment allegations. Because of the last minute switch, Republicans were able to appoint Alex Winkler (R) as Lebsock’s replacement in District 34, one of the three Republican battleground seats.
Party spending and satellite group spending in state legislative races
Both parties are spending on state legislative races through their official campaign committees. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) committed to spending $35 million, which, according to Vox, is twice what they spent in 2016. The Republican State Legislative Committee is spending $50 million, more than the $38 million they spent in 2016.
Democrats are receiving additional support from Forward Majority, a super PAC which helped flip 15 Republican seats in the 2017 Virginia House elections. Forward Majority recently announced it would spend $8 million in 100 state legislative races across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Republican satellite groups like GOPAC are spending in states like Maryland. Republicans are five Senate seats away from breaking the Democrats’ veto-proof supermajority, which is able to override vetoes by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R).
More battleground chambers to watch Nov. 6
We’ve covered 14 battleground chambers in this newsletter. Here are others to watch on election night:
Voters in 37 states will decide 155 statewide ballot measures Nov. 6. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, click here.
Elections policy
Twenty statewide measures across 15 states concern redistricting, voting requirements, ballot access, campaign finance, ethics, and other election policies.
Voters in Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, and Utah will decide measures that would establish new redistricting systems for their state legislatures, their congressional districts, or both. The Colorado, Michigan, and Utah measures propose independent redistricting commissions to draw maps. Missouri Amendment 1 is unique, proposing the first ever state demographer office and first-of-their-kind competitiveness and partisan fairness requirements for district boundaries.
Measures concerning voting requirements and ballot access are on the ballot in nine states. Topics include voter identification requirements, automatic and same-day voter registration, the ability to vote after a felony conviction, the ability to run for office after a felony conviction, and ballot collection. Florida’s Amendment 4 would automatically restore voting rights to most convicted felons -- except those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense -- once they complete their sentences, including prison, parole, and probation.
Five states have measures concerning campaign finance, political spending, and ethics: Colorado, Massachusetts, Missouri, North Dakota, and two measures in South Dakota. All of these measures were put on the ballot through citizen initiative.
At the local level, Memphis, Tennessee, voters will decide whether to repeal the city’s ranked-choice voting system. Voters in Fargo, North Dakota, and Lane County, Oregon, are deciding whether to establish new voting systems -- approval voting in Fargo and Score Then Automatic Runoff (STAR) voting in Lane County.
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