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United States Senate elections, 2016

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2016 U.S. Senate Elections
Election Date
November 8, 2016
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Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 8, 2014. A total of 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Special elections will be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 114th Congress.

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections on November 8, 2016, will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2017.

The Senate elections in 2016 will take place with a presidential election. Likewise, there are a large number of U.S. Senators who have made their presidential ambitions public in 2015. Among the potential candidates, Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) have expressed interest in running for president.[1]

If Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) wins his bid in the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election he will vacate his Senate seat.[2]

Additionally, some senators may decide to retire before the 2016 election and leave their seats vacant. Longtime U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) of California was the first to announce her retirement. She was first elected in 1992.[3]

Partisan breakdown

The Republicans currently hold the majority in the U.S. Senate. As of January 2015, the Republicans have 54 Senate seats while the Democrats have 44 Senate seats. Two seats are held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republicans won the Senate majority in the 2014 midterm elections when they gained nine seats and lost none.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
     Democratic Party 44 46
     Republican Party 54 52
     Independent 2 2
Total 100 100

There are 24 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats up for re-election. In 2016, the Democratic Party will need to pick up five seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. The majority of the Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 were first elected in 2010 during the Tea Party Movement.[4]

This map shows the Senate seats up for election in 2016. The red and blue colors indicate whether the seat is currently by a Republican or a Democrat, respectively.


Retiring Incumbents

One Senate member has thus far announced they would not seek re-election in 2016.

  • Democratic Party 3 Democrats
  • Republican Party 2 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
[[Barbara Boxer|]]
[[Barbara Mikulski|]]
[[Dan Coats|]]
[[Harry Reid|]]
[[David Vitter|]]

Incumbents considering retirement

As of January 2015, several incumbents are speculated to retire or run for a different office. Rand Paul (R-KY) announced on December 1, 2014, that he would seek re-election to his Senate seat.[5] Paul is exploring options to run for his Senate seat and the presidency simultaneously in 2016. Marco Rubio (R-FL) however has not yet announced if he will run for re-election to his Florida Senate seat or run for president. Florida law dictates that an individual cannot run for two different public offices simultaneously. If he runs for President of the United States, he will have to vacate his Senate seat.

Democrats

Democratic Party Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Democratic Party Harry Reid (D-NV)
Democratic Party Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Democratic Party Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)[6]

Republicans

Republican Party John McCain (R-AZ)
Republican Party David Vitter (R-LA)
Republican Party Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Republican Party Dan Coats (R-IN)
Republican Party Chuck Grassley (R-IA)[7]

Committees

NRSC

See also: National Republican Senatorial Committee

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is a national political organization that focuses on electing Republicans into the U.S. Senate. The NRSC official website states:

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is the only national organization solely devoted to electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate. The NRSC provides invaluable support and assistance to current and prospective Republican U.S. Senate candidates in the areas of budget planning, election law compliance, fundraising, communications tools and messaging, research and strategy."[8]

The current chair is Kansas Senator Jerry Moran, while the executive director is Kevin McLaughlin.

McLaughlin identified the priorities of the NRSC for the 2016 Senate elections. One of the priorities was to target Harry Reid (D-NV). He emphasized that Reid was the face of the 113th Congress and the national frustration associated with it. McLaughlin said, "He's the most vulnerable senator in the United States of America right now."[9]

DSCC

See also: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is a national political organization solely devoted to electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate. The DSCC official website states:

"The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is the only organization solely dedicated to electing a Democratic Senate. From grassroots organizing to candidate recruitment to providing campaign funds for tight races, the DSCC is working hard all year, every year to elect Democrats to move our country forward.

We're already hard at work to take back the Senate from the Republicans in 2016 and give the next Democratic president a Democratic Senate to work with. We’re fighting to protect our Democratic champions, and we’re recruiting outstanding candidates across the nation to challenge obstructionist Republicans.

Our success depends on our large network of grassroots supporters. We encourage dedicated Democrats to get educated, engaged and involved. Supporting the DSCC is one of the most effective steps you can take to help Democrats succeed -- and take back the Senate in 2016."[10]

The current chair is Montana Senator Jon Tester. Colorado Senator Michael Bennet served as the previous chair in the 2014 election cycle.[11]

Campaign finances

After major candidates declare for the race, they will submit campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission monthly. The latest figures will be shown here.

The NRSC and the DSCC are the two principal political groups that raise funds to elect senatorial candidates.

Outside race ratings

As the pool of candidates becomes more certain, political analysis groups will begin to release their statistical predictions in the 2016 Senate elections.

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors in 2016. There are seven possible designations for the U.S. Senate races:

     Solid D
     Likely D
     Lean D

     Toss-up

     Lean R
     Likely R
     Solid R

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Solid R Total D Total R Total races
November 23, 2015[12] 7 1 1 5 3 5 12 9 20 34
October 5, 2015[13] 7 1 1 5 3 5 12 9 20 34
June 11, 2015[14] 7 1 1 4 4 5 12 9 21 34
June 1, 2015[15] 7 1 1 4 4 5 12 9 21 34
May 14, 2015[16] 7 1 1 4 3 5 13 9 21 34
April 13, 2015[17] 7 1 1 2 5 5 13 9 23 34
March 5, 2015[18] 7 1 2 0 5 6 13 10 24 34
January 9, 2015[19] 7 1 2 0 5 6 13 10 24 34
December 12, 2014[20] 8 0 2 0 5 6 13 10 24 34

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Each month the Crystal Ball releases race ratings for U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations for U.S. Senate:

     Safe D
     Likely D
     Leans D

     Toss-up

     Leans R
     Likely R
     Safe R

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- 2016 U.S. Senate Races
Month Safe D Likely D Leans D Toss-up Leans R Likely R Safe R Total D Total R Total races
December 9, 2015[21] 8 0 3 3 3 4 13 11 20 34
October 16, 2015[22] 8 0 3 3 3 5 12 11 20 34
September 14, 2015[23] 8 0 3 2 3 6 12 11 21 34
August 26, 2015[24] 8 0 3 2 3 6 12 11 21 34
August 7, 2015[25] 8 0 3 2 3 6 12 11 21 34
July 22, 2015[26] 8 0 3 2 3 6 12 11 21 34
July 8, 2015[27] 8 0 2 3 4 5 12 10 21 34
June 9, 2015[28] 8 0 2 3 4 5 12 10 21 34
May 21, 2015[29] 8 0 2 3 4 5 12 10 21 34
April 21, 2015[30] 8 0 1 5 3 5 12 9 20 34
December 11, 2014[31] 8 0 2 3 4 5 12 10 21 34

Most vulnerable seats

Analysis indicates that Republicans may face more vulnerability because they have to defend 24 seats in 2016, as opposed to 10 in 2014.[32]

Republican Party The Republicans senators considered most vulnerable include by The Hill include:

Democratic Party The Democratic senators considered most vulnerable include by The Hill include:

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term 2016 + senate + elections

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

2016 Senate Elections News Feed

See also

References

  1. ↑ Politico, "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate," December 29, 2014
  2. ↑ Washington Post, "Sen. David Vitter announces he’s running for Louisiana governor," Jun 21, 2014
  3. ↑ LA Times, "Barbara Boxer: California loses its liberal lion," January 11, 2015
  4. ↑ ABC News, "Tea Party Class of 2010: Where Are They Now?," May 30, 2013
  5. ↑ Rand Paul for U.S. Senate, 2016, "Rand Paul to Seek Re-Election to U.S. Senate," accessed December 19, 2014
  6. ↑ http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/228364-10-possible-senate-retirements The Hill, "10 possible Senate retirements," January 2, 2015]
  7. ↑ http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/228364-10-possible-senate-retirements The Hill, "10 possible Senate retirements," January 2, 2015]
  8. ↑ National Republican Senatorial Committee, "About," accessed January 22, 2015
  9. ↑ National Journal, "Senate GOP Campaign Committee Targets Harry Reid," January 11, 2015
  10. ↑ Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "About," accessed January 22, 2015
  11. ↑ Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Jon Tester to serve as DSCC chair," November 13, 2014
  12. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 23, 2015
  13. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 5, 2015
  14. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," June 11, 2015
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," June 1, 2015
  16. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 14, 2015
  17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," April 13, 2015
  18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 5, 2015
  19. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 9, 2015
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 12, 2014
  21. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," December 9, 2015
  22. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," October 16, 2015
  23. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," September 14, 2015
  24. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," August 26, 2015
  25. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," August 7, 2015
  26. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," July 22, 2015
  27. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," July 8, 2015
  28. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," June 9, 2015
  29. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," May 21, 2015
  30. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," April 21, 2015
  31. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 11, 2014
  32. ↑ Washington Post, "Why Republicans’ Senate majority could be very short-lived," November 8, 2014
  33. ↑ The Hill, "10 senators who could lose in 2016," December 28, 2014
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