Georgia's 6th Congressional District special election, 2017/Political context
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Campaign ads • Timeline |
| Special Election: April 18, 2017 Runoff Election: June 20, 2017 Election Winner: Karen Handel  Incumbent: Tom Price (R) |
| Cook Political Report: Toss-up[2] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up[3] Rothenberg & Gonzales: Pure Toss-up[4] |
An election was held in the 6th Congressional District of Georgia on June 20, 2017, to fill the seat left vacant by Tom Price (R). Karen Handel (R) defeated Jon Ossoff (D) by a margin of 3.8 percentage points.
This special election was one of the first chances since 2016 for the Democratic Party to put a small dent in the Republican House majority. Under normal circumstances, Georgia's 6th District would have been seen as a safe Republican district, as the Democratic Party has not held the district since before Newt Gingrich's first election to the seat in 1978. However, Donald Trump's narrow win by a margin of 1.5 percent over Hillary Clinton in the district in the 2016 presidential race signified that the district could be competitive. Comparatively, Mitt Romney won the district by a margin of 23.3 percent in 2012, and John McCain defeated Barack Obama by 18 percent in 2008.[5][6]
This page provides an overview of the political context of the election, including the demographics of the district, voter turnout, and legal issues.
The 6th District
Georgia's 6th Congressional District has been represented by a Republican continuously since 1979 when Newt Gingrich took office for the first of ten consecutive terms (1979-1999). Most recently, the seat was held by Tom Price, who vacated the seat after he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve as secretary of health and human services on February 10, 2017. Prior to Gingrich's election in 1978, the district was represented by Democrat John J. Flynt Jr. for seven consecutive terms (1965-1979).
The district has a population of about 730,000 people and encompasses a segment of the suburbs north of Atlanta, Georgia, including portions of Cobb County, Dekalb County, and Fulton County.[7] The Chattahoochee River, including Morgan Falls, flows near Roswell, Georgia. Roswell, with a population of about 94,500, is the largest city that sits entirely in the district.[7]
The district has a median household income of $83,844, which is higher than the state of Georgia ($51,244) and the United States as a whole ($56,516). The population of the district also has greater educational attainment, with more than half of residents over the age of 25 earning a bachelor's degree.[7]
History of the presidential vote in the district
The Republican nominee for president won Georgia's 6th Congressional District in every election from 2000 to 2016. During that span, the district's borders remained relatively consistent, but the lines were adjusted slightly following the 2010 census. Donald Trump received 48.3 percent of the vote in 2016, which gave him a margin of victory of 1.5 percentage points over Hillary Clinton. This represents a significant drop in relative support for the Republican nominee from the previous four presidential elections, in which the Republican nominee never received less than 59.2 percent of the vote and won by a margin of victory of at least 18.9 percent. Donald Trump was also the only Republican nominee during this time not to receive 50 percent of the district's votes. [8]
Legal issues
Lawsuit filed to request paper ballots
A lawsuit was filed in Fulton County Superior Court requesting that paper ballots be used in the runoff election, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on May 26, 2017. The plaintiffs—Rocky Mountain Foundation, Georgians for Verified Voting, and two Georgia residents—argued that Georgia's direct-recording electronic voting machines were outdated and unreliable and should have a paper audit trail.[9]
Voter registration reopened
On May 4, 2017, U.S. District Judge Timothy Batten ordered the state of Georgia to reopen voter registration ahead of the June 20 runoff. The decision originated from a lawsuit by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, which alleged that the state of Georgia ended voter registration for federal runoff elections two months earlier than required by federal law. The office of Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) stated that it would seek to comply with the order. Registration had been closed since March 20 but began immediately following Judge Batten's order. Registration remained open through May 20.[10]
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 235 | |
| Republican Party | 235 | 200[11] | |
| Vacancies | 7 | 0 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Voter turnout
According to the United States Election Project, 59.2 percent of the voting-eligible population (VEP) in the state of Georgia voted in the 2016 presidential election, while 38.2 percent of Georgia's VEP voted in the 2014 midterm. These figures were calculated by taking the percentage of the voting-age population (VAP), which was determined by comparing official vote totals with census data on the number of people age 18 and up, and modifying it to take into account persons made ineligible to vote due to felony conviction or being a non-citizen.[12][13]
Georgia's 6th District had an above-average turnout in the previous two congressional elections. Ballotpedia calculated that 68 percent of the VEP of Georgia's 6th Congressional District voted in the 2016 presidential election, while 44.1 percent of the district's VEP voted in the 2014 midterm. Comparatively, the average VEP of the United States was 59.3 percent in 2016 and 36.0 percent in 2014. To calculate the figures for Georgia's 6th District, we used official vote totals from Georgia's 6th Congressional District compared with census data on the VAP in the district. We then assumed there to be an average distribution of ineligible voting-age persons in the 6th District compared with the rest of the state to determine the VEP turnout in the district.[12][13]
Historically, odd-year congressional special elections drove lower turnout rates than congressional midterm elections, meaning that a turnout of less than 40 percent in this special election was expected. Due to the expected low participation, both Democrats and Republicans stressed driving voter turnout in the weeks leading up to the election. In March, actors Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham literally drove voters to the polls to early vote in an attempt to drive Democratic turnout, while the National Republican Congressional Committee released an ad urging voters to get out and vote Republican.[14][15]
See also
- April 18 special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District
- Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
- Georgia's 6th Congressional District
- Tom Price
Footnotes
- ↑ Race ratings from outside sources are their initial ratings for the 2018 election.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2018 House Race Ratings for April 10, 2017," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Initial 2018 House Ratings," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed April 11, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections presents the 2016 presidential election results by congressional district," January 30, 2017
- ↑ Vox, "Georgia Dems normally raise $10,000 for this House seat. This April they’ll have $3 million." March 27, 2017
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 United States Census Bureau, "My Congressional District," accessed March 31, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed April 4, 2017
- ↑ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Lawsuit seeks paper ballots in Georgia’s 6th District runoff," May 26, 2017
- ↑ AJC.com, "Federal judge orders Georgia to reopen voter registration ahead of 6th District runoff," May 4, 2017
- ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 United States Elections Project, "2016 November General Election Turnout Rates," accessed April 4, 2017
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," accessed April 4, 2017
- ↑ People, "Alyssa Milano Is Literally Driving Voters to the Polls for Georgia’s Special Election," March 27, 2017
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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