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New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 12, 2020
Primary: September 8, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Annie Kuster (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by municipality
Voting in New Hampshire
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
New Hampshire elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of New Hampshire, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Annie Kuster won election in the general election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 12, 2020
September 8, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Annie Kuster, who was first elected in 2012. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.


New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District encompasses most of the state, including the northern, southern and western reaches of the state.It includes all of Chesire, Coos, and Sullivan counties along with areas of Belknap, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack and Rockingham counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 53.5 53.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 44.8 43.7
Difference 8.7 10.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New Hampshire modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Any voter could request an absentee ballot based on concerns related to COVID-19. Voters could submit one absentee ballot application for both the primary and general elections.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The nomination petition signature requirements for the Libertarian Party's candidates in New Hampshire's general election was reduced by 35 percent.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster defeated Steve Negron and Andrew Olding in the general election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster (D)
 
53.9
 
208,289
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron (R)
 
43.7
 
168,886
Image of Andrew Olding
Andrew Olding (L)
 
2.4
 
9,119
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
147

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 386,441
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster defeated Joseph Mirzoeff in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 8, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster
 
92.8
 
71,358
Image of Joseph Mirzoeff
Joseph Mirzoeff Candidate Connection
 
7.2
 
5,500

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 76,858
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Steve Negron defeated Lynne Blankenbeker, Matthew Bjelobrk, and Eli Clemmer in the Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 8, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron
 
48.1
 
30,503
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Lynne Blankenbeker
 
38.6
 
24,464
Image of Matthew Bjelobrk
Matthew Bjelobrk Candidate Connection
 
6.9
 
4,381
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Eli Clemmer
 
6.1
 
3,850
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
153

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 63,351
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 10 New Hampshire counties—30 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Coos County, New Hampshire 8.89% 17.54% 18.19%
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 0.20% 1.12% 3.73%
Sullivan County, New Hampshire 2.58% 13.27% 17.93%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Hampshire with 46.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 31 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Democratic with the exception of the 2000 presidential election.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 10 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 14.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 145 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 101 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 59 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 103 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 12.9 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District the 188th most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Annie Kuster Democratic Party $3,045,110 $3,055,351 $1,073,085 As of December 31, 2020
Steve Negron Republican Party $448,759 $459,542 $-3,787 As of December 31, 2020
Andrew Olding Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster defeated Steve Negron and Justin O'Donnell in the general election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster (D) Candidate Connection
 
55.5
 
155,358
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron (R)
 
42.2
 
117,990
Image of Justin O'Donnell
Justin O'Donnell (L)
 
2.2
 
6,206
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
151

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 279,705
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster Candidate Connection

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron
 
26.0
 
11,166
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Stewart Levenson
 
25.3
 
10,858
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Lynne Blankenbeker
 
22.9
 
9,836
Image of Bob Burns
Bob Burns
 
15.9
 
6,811
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Brian Belanger
 
5.6
 
2,388
Image of Jay Mercer
Jay Mercer
 
2.9
 
1,232
Image of Gerard Beloin
Gerard Beloin
 
1.5
 
623

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 42,914
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Justin O'Donnell defeated Tom Alciere in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Justin O'Donnell
Justin O'Donnell
 
74.6
 
428
Image of Tom Alciere
Tom Alciere Candidate Connection
 
25.4
 
146

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 574
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Annie Kuster (D) won re-election, defeating Jim Lawrence (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Lawrence defeated Eric Estevez, Jack Flanagan, Walter Kelly, Andy Martin, Jay Mercer, and Casey Newell in the Republican primary on September 13, 2016.[15][16]

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnnie Kuster Incumbent 49.8% 174,371
     Republican Jim Lawrence 45.3% 158,825
     Independent John Babiarz 4.9% 17,076
Total Votes 350,272
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State


U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJim Lawrence 39.9% 17,180
Jack Flanagan 28% 12,046
Walter Kelly 10% 4,287
Andy Martin 7.3% 3,145
Eric Estevez 5.7% 2,443
Jay Mercer 4.9% 2,113
Casey Newell 4.3% 1,839
Total Votes 43,053
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

2014

See also: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of New Hampshire held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Annie Kuster (D) defeated Marilinda Garcia (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnnie Kuster Incumbent 54.9% 130,700
     Republican Marilinda Garcia 44.9% 106,871
     N/A Scatter 0.3% 613
Total Votes 238,184
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New Hampshire Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "New Hampshire," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State, "State Primary - September 13, 2016," accessed June 13, 2016
  16. ↑ Politico, "New Hampshire House Primary Results," September 13, 2016


New Hampshire's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Maggie Hassan (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Democratic Party (4)


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